Refugee report – June

June 2024

As the General Election approaches, immigration continues to be on the agenda, although different interests claim different levels of concern.  Immigration is the top concern for 27% of the population (54% among Conservative voters in 2019 to 15% among Labour voters.)  The latest YouGov poll places it behind the cost of living, health and the economy. 

The Migration Observatory has a comparison between Conservative and Labour policies.  Notably, with regard to small boats, the Labour Party has said it wants to spend money currently earmarked for the Rwanda scheme on enforcement activity instead.  It would establish a new ‘Border Security Command’ to prosecute gangs operating small boat routes and enhance security cooperation with the EU, and negotiate a deal with the EU to return asylum seekers to EU countries.

The Election has placed some ongoing legislation in difficulty, particularly the Illegal Migration Act (2023), some of which is already law, but some parts not yet enacted have been described by practitioners as ‘messy’.

The Government is still pushing the Rwanda plan (interesting to note that the Australian Government, which came up with a similar idea, has recently had 5 Rwandans on their shores).  ‘Operation Vector’, to give it its title, remains in the Conservative manifesto; the cost of the project so far is believed to be about £240 million, though the Parliamentary Public Affairs Committee, quoting National Audit research, record it would cost £500 million by 2033 if implemented.

The small boat numbers continue to be high at over 10,000 arrivals this year so far.  Ironically, 316 migrants arrived in 5 boats on 6^th June.  The main countries of origin continue to be Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan, now joined by Turkey.

There has been a drop in the grant rate for asylum seekers in the last year (down from 74% accepted to 62%).  This may be exacerbated by the ongoing backlog clearance, where the hardest cases will be left to last.  In Q1 only 43% were allowed, which will no doubt add to the number of appeals.

Refugee Week starts on 17^th June.  The theme is Our Home.  The organisers have a list of events, plus things you can do at home (some quite simple).  

Andrew Hemming