Category: refugees

Analysing the Shift in UK Migration Figures: What It Means


Net migration figures halved

December 2025

In a week where the focus has been on European discussions about the European Convention on Human Rights, actual migration has taken a back seat behind probable ever-tougher measures against those arriving here (the expected next French president Jordan Bardella is talking of letting UK Border Force push small boats back to France). At the same time, the National Audit Office has surveyed the workings of the existing UK asylum processing system and found it failing in a number of areas – not to mention its view that current government proposals will have unintended consequences.

On the legislative front, the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act has received the Royal Assent. During its passage through Parliament, some changes were made, including a partial lifting of the ban on anyone arriving “illegally” being allowed to stay and some reduction in the power to keep electronic data of applicants.

Net migration figure halved

From a UK point of view the most dramatic news has been the more than halving of the net migration figures year-on-year. This has mostly been achieved by reducing visas for prospective workers, but the ending of help for refugees from Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong has made a substantial difference. To June 2025, the yearly excess of immigration over emigration was 204,000 (down from 649,000).

The new Home Secretary has declared her policy, including making intending settlers take more stringent tests and wait 20 years to get residency. “Earned settlement” is to be subjected to consultation up until February, with new rules  expected around April. It has been observed that Mahmood’s ideas were tried in Australia in the 90s, with little success ; they were abandoned in 2023.

Some useful reports have come out in the last month. Probably the most interesting is from the Mixed Migration Centre of the Danish Refugee Council on people smugglers. Interviews with migrants and smugglers have revealed that stricter law enforcement has tended to fuel demand and increase fees. Only 6% of interviewed migrants said they had been recruited by smugglers, most taking the decision to move on their own or with family members. Alarmingly, almost half the smugglers admitted being in contact with border officers or police.

The PCS union and Together With Refugees have a new report entitled “Welcoming Growth,” looking at the economic consequences of a possible change to the current system. If the immigration rules were to:

  • Make all asylum claims proceed within 6 months
  • legal assistance at all stages
  • Give English language support from day 1
  • Give employment support from day one.

They calculate that a total contribution from refugees could amount to £260,000 per refugee over 12 ½ years, giving a net benefit to the public purse of £53,000 per person, after costs. 16 MPs have signed a motion welcoming the report.

Other notes:

Following the pause, the UK is now accepting asylum claims from Syrians again.

European organisations (notably Eurodac) are concerned that AI usage is resulting in misreadings of migrants’ personal data.

Thousands of Ukrainians have been ejected from Israel as the offer of asylum has ended. Their future is unclear.

Total number displaced in Sudan is now 13 million.

200,000 have fled homes in Eastern Congo amid ongoing fighting.

Finally, the Refugee Week people are moving ahead. They have updated what they call their Theory of Change (by which they mean their mission statement, essentially), which is a good summary of an arts-led campaign. They are offering to make available the film The Light That Remains (a documentary of life in Gaza under stress).

AH

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Controversial UK Immigration Policies: Public Reaction


Public reactions to immigration not straighforward

November 2025

The main news topic in the UK this month has been accommodation for asylum seekers, and the public reaction to the Government’s move to place claimants in military establishments following the furore over the use of hotels. Although such sites are expensive to run, the Home Office’s view is that ”quelling public disquiet was worth any extra cost.” Current plans include places for 900 claimants near Inverness, and 600 at Crowborough, East Sussex. Needless to say protests are already taking place. The Home Affairs Select Committee has expressed disapproval of the plans as unsuitable and requiring vast expenditure making the sites liveable. Figures for the numbers in hotel accommodation have fallen from 50,000 in June 20203 to 31,000 in June 2025.

A YouGov poll in 2022 revealed that the British public were split on whether or not immigration was good

for the country 29% for, 29% against. By 2025 the equivalent figures were 20% and 43%, and three quarters of responders thought immigration too high. The change in view has been put down to “imagined immigration”, whereby the population has acquired an incorrect understanding of the reality. For example, 47% of respondents believe that there is more illegal than legal immigration (small boat arrivals are actually 4% of the total).

The Government’s decision to end the family reunion process continues to cause concern. It has been suggested that this was an idea taken up from Denmark’s current hardline policy on immigration, and that the Home Secretary is minded to follow more Danish policies, such as allowing in only claimants who are known targets of their home government. The Home Secretary’s plan for a “major shake-up of the immigration and asylum system later this month” will probably take account of other aspects of the Danish system, possibly including its policy of “parallel societies” (removing people from integrated areas to encourage homogeneous neighbourhoods in a two-tier system: catch Iain Watson’s Radio 4 programme “Immigration: the Danish Way” for the story.) [limited time].

In Parliament, the Border Safety, Asylum and Immigration Bill is still in the Lords, where Lord Dubs has an amendment to counter the removal of family reunion by allowing the entry of children lost on the way to this country. This may pass.

Another controversial area of  policy has been Afghanistan, where people who worked for the previous government are being refused asylum as the Home Office claims they are not vulnerable to the Taliban. The organisation Asylos has a paper that has a different view, based on information from on the ground.

On the small boats front, there were 14 consecutive days in late October/early November when no boats crossed the Channel, since when a 1200 arrivals came in two days with better weather. The “one-in, one-out” arrangement with France continues in existence as a pilot scheme, but no assessment has yet been offered.

An interesting view of the prospects for migration comes from Britain in a Changing Europe’s James Bowes, who thinks that migration levels to the UK will fall dramatically. Most of this will be among legal migrants being denied visas, but lower numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will also have an effect; total net migration, he predicts, will fall to 70-170,000 in 2026 (the figure was 431,000 in 2024).

The journal Border Criminologies has noted that European governments have been using migrants’ mobile phone data to criminalise them rather than doing proper assessments. This story may get bigger.

There are numerous ongoing campaigns around. Next year’s Refugee Week (15th – 21st June) has as its theme “Courage”; Safe Passage are running a campaign against the family reunion policy under the title “Together Not Torn” “and Refugee Action are encouraging fundraising activities in the pre-Christmas period. Details can be found at https://www.refugee-action.org.uk/campaigns/

AH

https://salisburyai.com

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Stories from the Small Boats Crisis


Notes from a talk at the Cheltenham Literature Festival

October 2025

This was the title of an extremely interesting talk given by three different speakers at the Festival on the the vexed subject of the small boats crossing the Channel. You would have to be living in a cave in the UK not to know that the boats crossing the Channel is causing huge political waves in the UK. Politicians are scrambling to come up with solutions to stop the crossings. The tabloid and right-wing newspapers keep up a seemingly never ending series of stories on the subject. Some communities are sufficiently angry to stand outside hotels where asylum seekers are housed. The nation as a whole seems very angry.

It was interesting therefore to go to a talk where there was a different take on the subject give by the three speakers. They were:

  • Nicola Kelly, an investigative journalist but had worked for the Home and Foreign offices before leaving
  • Horatio Clare an author and
  • Mir Rahami who at 13, had to flee Afghanistan.

There were a number of points made as you would expect. The ‘crisis’ as it has come to be called was presented as a crisis for us rather than a crisis for those on the boats. The sufferings of such people and the privations they have experienced has got lost in all the invective hurled at them by a number of politicians and journalists. The rights of the people arriving seem to have got lost.

If there were no wars there would probably be no refugees, or least fewer of them, it was claimed. We have noted in previous posts that the UK has been happy to sell arms and issue open licences for such arms with only weak controls on where they end up. There is a kind of irony in this activity which causes deep distress and mayhem in the countries involved while the same politicians complain about those escaping arriving on our shores.

The similarity to Brexit was discussed. Misinformation promoted by some of the same individuals making much noise over the crossings. A balanced view never seems to emerge either from them or those elements of the media which support them. Another aspect of Brexit was mentioned. It is often a complaint that we do not know who the immigrants are and that some may be people with criminal pasts. This is made worse because we no longer have access to the databases having left the EU. Brexit in other words has made the problem worse.

One interesting point – a point you seldom hear discussed – is that money and investment can go where it wishes. Goods can be traded internationally largely without let or hindrance. But people cannot. So the forces which cause economic imbalances are unfettered but those affected are not permitted to respond by leaving.

A major part of the government’s response is to ‘smash the gangs’. There is a lot of talk on this topic but always with the assumption that the gangs are in the Continent. What about the gangs operating here about which there seems to be silence? Might it be part of the UK being a victim in some way of the lawless gangs? That gangs which operate here don’t fit that narrative.

A major point made – a lament really – was the lack of politicians willing to speak out in favour of immigration and the benefits they bring. There are problems but there just seems to be a constant flow of one way talk about the ‘crisis’. It became self-fulfilling. The ex-Home Office speaker said the department were obsessed with the media and tried to come up with sensationalist material to show they were on top of the subject.

The presentation was well received.

(Image, BBC)

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UK Refugee Crisis: Strategies to Address Small Boat Arrivals


Refugees and boat crossings still making political waves

July 2025

With the state visit of President Macron this week, the small boats are back in the headlines. As Macron and Starmer try to thrash out a deal to reduce the numbers arriving in the UK, the UK has been pressuring the French police to use new tactics against the irregular immigrants, allowing them to stop boats from up to 300 meters from the shoreline rather than only dealing with them on land. Presently they can only intervene if there is danger to life. The police are, in any event accused of puncturing inflatable boats as well as more heinously using tear gas and pepper spray on children.

An agreement between the UK and France on a “one in one out” basis, so that any arrival can be sent

back to France if replaced by a candidate deemed more worthy by dint of family connection, has been mooted, but the press conference will be on Thursday afternoon, so we will not know just yet. At all events, other EU nations are complaining about a possible deal which will make it more likely that arrivals in Europe will end up on their shores.

‘we have to make migration boring again’

Meanwhile, Amy Pope, the CEO of the (UN’s) International Organisation for Migration, has suggested any proposed changes will be unlikely to work, bearing in mind the level of commitment the migrants have already put in before reaching the English Channel. She is also in favour of de-politicising the debate. Her comment “We have to make migration boring again” is clearly  the most valuable contribution from anyone so far.

Arrivals

As noted last month, the number of arrivals in the UK on small boats continues to break records (20,000 by the end of June). This has been put down to good weather, smugglers’ new techniques and increasing conflicts around the world (the largest number of hopeful asylum seekers in Calais are from Sudan).

The Government is hoping to save up to £1 billion by speeding up backlog processing. However, the backlog is now 90,000 rather than 50,000 in 2024. In 2024, there were84,000 asylum claims – In the EU as a whole there were nearly a million – 997,000.

With much discussion on what legal routes immigrants can take, here is a summary of the current situation in the UK: there are presently 7 options.

  1. UNHCR can select people it thinks appropriate to send (the places cannot be applied for, and amount to only 1% of all refugees).
  2. UK Resettlement Scheme. The status of this is unclear; it includes community sponsorship and accounts for about 700 arrivals last year.
  3. Mandate Scheme. This is for people with relatives in the UK. 23 cases were reported in 2024.
  4. Family Reunions. Applies after refugee status has been agreed by the UK.

Mostly Syrians , Iranians and Eritreans. 5000 in quarter 1 2025.

  • Hong Kong. Numbers low now as most cases already settled.
  • Afghanistan. ACRS and ARAOP have now been closed, with virtually no explanation. “Further measures…[will be] announced later this year.” More Afghans have been arriving by boats than under these arrangements anyway.
  • Ukraine. Numbers also down now to about 4000 a month. Only 1698 asylum claims since 2022.

The Refugee Council have a new report New Roots, New Futures, arguing for a national integration strategy for refugees in the UK. They are particularly exercised by the need for new arrivals to have access to help in obtaining work and housing once they have been given right to remain.

The Green Party have put forward a plan for the Home Office to be split, with various options for the immigration departments.

By way of context, it should be noted that 73% of the world’s refugees are in Low/Middle Income countries, 67% of them are in countries neighbouring the one they are fleeing. Per head of population the countries with the highest number of refugees are Lebanon (1 in 8 of the population), Aruba and Chad.

The European Convention on Human Rights has become an issue again with questionable claims being made about possible unfair exploitation of loopholes. It should be stated that the Convention does not affect individual countries’ immigration policy, and that it is rare for claimants to a right of “family life” and such to win their case. The ECHR has ruled against the UK twice in the last two years, in neither case about immigration/deportation issues. They have generally prevented removals from the UK about once every 4.5 years since 1980. Leaving the Convention over this issue would seem rather unnecessary.

Andrew Hemming

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Political Waves: The Crisis of Refugee Boat Crossings in 2025


Refugees and the boat crossings still making political waves

June 2025

This month we are back to the small boats.  So far in 2025 some 15,000 arrivals have been recorded (1,100 on one day).  The Home Office say this is due to better weather and more people crammed in to boats.  In quarter 1 numbers were up by 20% on last year – mainly from the usual places – Eritrea, Afghanistan, Sudan.

The asylum backlog is down to 78,000, but with a lower grant rate (49% over the last year) the improvement may not be maintained.  The number of claimants jailed for “illegal arrival” has doubled in the last year.  Between 2022 and 2024, 556 arrivals were prosecuted under the Illegal Migration Act and 455 convicted (half of them were said to be piloting the boats, willingly or otherwise, and were therefore “facilitators”). In the latter half of last year, 53 people were arrested for people smuggling including many who happened to be steering the boats and many of them children.

Plans for removing arrivals to third countries for processing have made little progress ; Albania said no, North Macedonia & Kosovo have not been asked  but say they are open to discussion.

3,800 Afghans are currently awaiting homes (who came under the ARS scheme and were left unsupported). Also it has been claimed that an unnamed Special Forces officer blocked the entry of 1585 Afghans (it has been suggested this might be related to potential war crimes revelations).

Mary Bosworth (Oxford Professor of Criminology) has an interesting piece on the outsourced immigration detainee escorting system Mary Bosworth (@mfbosworth.bsky.social) — Bluesky

7000 Syrians are still in limbo awaiting a UK decision on processing their claims after a pause (the new regime is still being monitored, though presumably it will eventually be possible for many to return there).

The US has taken on “refugees” from South Africa, white residents supposedly under threat.  So far there have been 50,000 enquiries and 68 actual moves.

The Home Secretary has said she is working on a “fast-tracking” removal system for migrants from “safe” countries; these have not yet been named.

Of the 108,000 claimants for asylum status in the last year 16,000 were from holders of student visas. The government is likely to address this question soon.

Immigrant-focused group British Future have polled the public on attitudes to the word “immigrant”.  For 70% of respondents this conjured up people on small boats, while 46% thought of imported workers.  Of those who wanted to see a reduction in immigration, 49% prioritised the boats, very few mentioning worker or student arrivals.  The research also finds that 59% of the public, and 64% of 2024 Labour voters, agree that migrants living in the UK and paying taxes should be eligible to apply for citizenship after five years or less.

Polling organisation More in Common found that 51% thought a fall in immigration a good thing, 57% opining that the level was still too high.

One of the more interesting ideas for Refugee Week is that of Lancaster, where an exhibition, Escape to Safety, will give visitors an interactive view of the refugee experience.  More on that here

Finally, the Government’s Spending Review this week had a couple of points on the immigration/asylum seekers question.  Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the new Border Security Command will receive up to £280m more a year by the end of the spending-review period.  She also promises that all spending on hotels for asylum seekers waiting for their cases to be heard will stop by the end of this parliament.

Andrew Hemming

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Refugee report


Monthly report on this politically toxic topic

April 2025

The Government’s Border Security Asylum and Immigration Bill has now completed its report stage and will next go to the Lords.  While this is going on, an update on the numbers shows that the number of small boat arrivals this year so far has exceeded 6000, the highest yet.  Meanwhile the backlog of pending asylum cases has increased to 41,000 in December.

The PM has drawn together 40 nations for his Organised Immigration Crime summit last week.  A press release went without much comment, containing the usual statements about agreeing to enhance border security and dismantle the criminal networks.  One item which did emerge was an agreement with Serbia to exchange intelligence about what is now known as the Western Balkans route into Europe.

Following this event, some 136 organisations under the umbrella of Together with Refugees wrote to the Government, unhappy about the language used by the Prime Minister, which they described as “demonising.”  The PM had claimed: “There is little that strikes working people as more unfair than watching illegal migration drive down their wages, their terms and their conditions through illegal work in their community.”

New research from the European University has suggested that attitudes in Europe to irregular migration are more nuanced and varied than previously supposed.  This was from a survey which covered 20,000 people across Austria, Italy, Poland, Sweden, and the UK designed to understand their preferences on policies regarding access to healthcare, social welfare and labour protections, as well as the obtainment of regular legal status or “regularisation” for irregular migrants. The results challenge the idea that public attitudes toward irregular migrants’ rights are simply “for” or “against”.  Instead, they found that variations in policy design matter – and when policies include both migration controls and protections for migrants, public support often increases.

Unusually, there is some emphasis this month about campaigning.  Refugee Week (third week in June) is this year under the theme of Community as a Superpower with its customary emphasis on small actions. The group might consider an action (s) which might include:

Following our action against denying asylum seekers the right to work pushing for a change in the law. Refugee Action have a petition to sign here and, for more information, you can Read the coalition’s report here. We could arrange our own petition using the Lift the Ban coalition’s resources.

  • Pressing for Salisbury to be a City of Sanctuary (Winchester and Swindon are)
  • A letter writing workshop for supporting asylum seekers (maybe using the Salisbury Ecohub)
  • A vigil for small boat arrivals (as we did a few years ago)
  • Safe Passage want us to write to our MPs about government  policy and the new bill

(They have a standard email, but this could be enhanced).

Also Refugee Action are offering speakers for local groups – they admit they would mostly be online, but they can make visits.

Finally, a recommended read is Labour’s Immigration Policy by Daniel Trilling (who many will remember gave a talk to us some years ago) in the London Review of Books for March.

Andrew Hemming

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UK Refugee Report: Political Issues and Policy Changes


This month’s refugee report on this vexed problem focuses on political issues in the UK

February 2025                                                        

This month the concentration will be on the continuing situation in the UK, with legislation going through and much pressure from certain political parties on the issue.

The Government’s Border Security Asylum and Immigration Bill passed its second reading this month. This Bill repeals the previous government’s Safety of Rwanda Act and some of its Illegal Migration Act. As presented, the Bill has received a cautious response from refugee and asylum organisations, most taking the view that it could have been worse.  The new offence of “supplying or handling ‘articles for use in immigration crime’” is expected to only be rarely used, despite the draconian punishment.  The other main provision concerns applying anti-terrorist legislation to smuggling gang leaders when caught.  Most organisations in the field point out that gang leaders rarely have assets in the UK and the National Crime Agency have said that most crime gangs are based in France, Belgium, Germany or Turkey, the success of this initiative is therefore to be doubted.

Blanket denial of citizenship

As of this week, the Home Office has been accused of a policy of denying citizenship to anyone who arrived by irregular means, however long ago, and despite being given leave to remain.  This would appear to be in breach of Article 34 of the Refugee Convention.  The issue is continuing.

Among the boat arrivals, the number of deaths recorded in transit was 78 in 2024, three times higher than the previous year. Pressure on the boat suppliers has led to more overcrowding, among other causes.

Within the European Union, irregular migration figures are down by 38% from 2023 to 2024, according to Frontex.  Migration routes from Tunisia, Libya and the Western Balkans have been made more difficult, but the policy of the government of Belarus in pushing migrants to the west has added to the numbers from that source.  Frontex are developing the use of AI on the borders.

The UK government has been publicising its deportation programme for unsuccessful claimants. Between 5 July 2024 and 31 January 2025, a total of 18,987 returns were recorded – an increase of 24%, the Home Office said.  Removals of foreign national offenders were up by 21% and illegal working raids – on such places as nail bars and car washes – are up by 38% compared with the same period 12 months previously.  Videos of people being put on planes* (for unknown destinations) have been put in the public arena.  Of the total returns since 5 July 2024, 2,925 were of foreign national offenders – an increase of 21%.

The backlog of asylum cases continues to be a concern.  In the last year, the proportion of asylum claims that have been accepted has dropped from 75% to 52% with a resulting increase in the number of appeals.  So, although the initial backlog built up over years has fallen, it is constantly being topped up. The last available figure, for September, was 97,000, but the Home Office say it is reducing.

Criticism of language used

A report by the Runnymede Trust has noted the language of the immigration debate, particularly the widespread use of the word “illegal”, although governments have tended to avoid the word as immigration is not illegal, though it may be “irregular”.  It blames media reporting for encouraging hostility towards migrants. In parliamentary debates and media reporting, negative terms like “illegal”, “flood” and “influx” are persistently used in association with migrants, posing them as a threat, dangerous and outsiders. The word “illegal” is in the top five most strongly associated words with ‘migrant’.

The pause in accepting Syrian refugees since the revolution is continuing despite urging from Damascus to process ongoing claims.

The Migration Advisory Committee has called for a change in the rules on working, asking for claimants to have the right to work after six months in the country.

The All-Party Parliamentary Group on Refugees issued a report this month on the working of the immigration system, and made some recommendations for improvement. Overall, the inquiry found that the current processes for safe and legal routes are overly complex, restrictive, and slow, leading to prolonged family separations and increased irregular migration. The report says UK governments since 2019 have adopted a “scattergun” approach to safe and legal routes.

“They have failed to effectively utilise the UK Resettlement Scheme (UKRS) and cooperate with the UNHCR to provide quotas for arrivals on this scheme. Instead, nationality specific schemes, each conferring differing entitlements, have been adopted, meaning that access to family reunion, immigration status and integration prospects are dependent on the scheme you arrived on which is unfair and inefficient.

“The refugee family reunion route was also highlighted as not operating effectively. Despite the number of visas issued increasing significantly in 2024, two-thirds of cases are failing to meet the Home Office’s own service standard of processing within 60 days. A backlog of family reunion cases has risen to at least 11,000 cases. The UK also operates one of the most restrictive refugee family reunion policies in Europe.“

The APPG makes three main recommendations. Firstly, it calls for improvements to refugee family reunion by processing cases within 60 days, allowing refugee children to sponsor their family members, and removing financial restrictions on UK-based sponsors. Secondly, it recommends restoring the UK Resettlement Scheme as the primary resettlement route and reaffirming the commitment to resettle 20,000 Afghans under the Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme. Thirdly, the report proposes introducing a pilot refugee visa scheme targeted at high grant rate countries, with a cap of 10,000 visas during the pilot period.

Finally, Amnesty are offering small grants for actions during Refugee Week in June details are available on the Local Groups email (but the final date is Monday!)

*the video is embedded in this LBC post.

AH

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Refugee report


Channel crossings still a political problem

January 2025

While we continue to await the details of the government’s proposed Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, the arrivals continue on small boats. The total for 2024 was 36,816 (compared to 29,000 in 2023, but lower than 2022). 69 migrants lost their lives in the Channel over the year. It is also noted that 270 claimants died while awaiting the results of their applications since 2015. The National Crime Agency is predicting large numbers of arrivals this year.

UK Government activity in the last month include a Home Office declaration that people smugglers will face immediate travel bans, social media blackouts and phone restrictions when caught. This morning (Thursday) the Foreign Secretary has joined in with a piece insisting that the FO is part of this push. How this will develop is unclear, but he speaks of using “our sharpest diplomatic weapons.”

There has also been a marked increase in the number of removals (voluntary or otherwise), amounting to 13,500 since the election, and the speeding up of the application process may have led to a loss of accuracy in the decision making. It is likely that talk of removing people “who have no right to be here” will increase.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian refugees, here under the visa scheme, are concerned that the 3 year visas will expire soon. They can be extended, but it is feared that the process may take so long that the right to remain will have gone before completion.

Charities the Refugee Council and Safe Passage have both produced reports in the last month. Safe Passage is primarily concerned with child refugees and is urging the government to provide safe routes and enable families to reunite without hindrance. The Refugee Council is campaigning for a “fair and humane asylum system” with a six-point plan including piloting a visa scheme for anyone seeking refuge in the UK and a hearing process that takes no account of the means by which applicants arrived here. It is not expected that the government will take these suggestions up.

As an international comparison, the number of boat arrivals on the Canary Islands in 2024 was 46,000. Spain has been following a comparatively liberal approach to immigration, but it is feared this may change.

As a tailpiece, an article on the experiences of those migrants who ended up on the now abandoned Bibby Stockholm can be read here.

AH

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/jan/08/life-and-death-on-the-bibby-stockholm-no-one-wanted-to-go-inside-but-we-had-no-choice

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Refugee report


Events in Syria may see many return

December 2024

To begin with more positive news, the collapse of the regime in Syria has led to a rush among exiles to return to the country. Refugee camps just outside Syria have been particularly active. The down side is that, as a result, European governments (including the UK) have paused processing active asylum claims from Syrians. The UNHCR has calculated that the largest number of refugees from Syria leaving for other countries under Bashar al-Assad were Turkey 3.1 million, Lebanon 774,000, Germany 717,000 and Jordan 628,000.

Statistics released this month indicate that the net migration totals for the UK have dropped to 728,000 for y/e June 2024, but of course most of these are legal. Of the asylum claimants, the backlog of cases was at 97,200 in September, mostly appeals, as the percentage of claims granted by the Home Office has fallen over the last 12 months from 75% to 52%. At the same time, it has been said that only 52% of asylum decisions have met the Home Office’s internal quality assurance requirements. Since the Home Office has imposed a 2 hour limit on interviews with claimants in an attempt to speed thing up, this is perhaps not surprising.

Small boat arrivals have dropped substantially in the last month, due mainly to adverse weather. No boats arrived between the 17th and 30th November, and only 8 since, which means 400 arrivals in the last 3 weeks. Greece, the main point of entry to Europe for many, has received 57,000 arrivals this year so far.

A change in the law means that newly accepted asylum seekers in the UK will now have 56 days to “move on” from asylum accommodation, twice the previous limit. The Home Office is also planning to house asylum seekers in disused care homes and student accommodation. The National Audit Office has concluded that accommodation like military bases and barges do not represent value for money.

Britain has signed a deal with Iraq to tackle people smuggling gangs, particularly in the Kurdistan region. Deals with other front line countries may follow. Meanwhile the UK and Germany have pledged to share intelligence and expertise against the gangs. Germany will make it a specific offence to facilitate smuggling migrants to the UK; many of the rubber dinghies used are stored in Germany.

Andrew Hemming

Pic: NY Times

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Refugee report


Europe still struggles to deal with refugees coming to its shores

November 2024

This month’s report is Eurocentric. Hopefully we can look at the wider aspects next time, as we become clearer about the new US President’s plans for widespread deportation (and also the Australian government’s battle with the courts).

The government’s proposals on the small boats crisis remain unclear at the moment. Apart from the Prime Minister’s curious assertion that the people smugglers constitute a threat to national security, things continue much as before. The total number of arrivals so far this year is over 32,000, 22% up on last year (but still below 2022). Worse overcrowding on the boats is partly responsible for 64 migrants dying at sea this year (5 times last year’s total). The government has agreed improved intelligence exchange with three Balkan countries and has pledged £150 million for the proposed Border Security Command.

Within the Home Office It is suggested that there is some doubt as to how the new Command will work. Lizzie Dearden in the i reports that the fear is that the more the authorities clamp down the more risky the methods used by migrants and that a new approach is the best solution. Nevertheless, the Home Office is recruiting a head for the proposed National Returns Progression Command, a body intended to take control of deporting unsuccessful applicants for asylum status.

There has been much concern about the use of the term “illegal arrival” as per the 2022 Nationality and Borders Act. Anyone guilty of “facilitation” (which includes steering a boat) is liable to up to life imprisonment, and cases have been reported of this happening. Since the Act came into force there have been 471 arrests, 233 of them for taking the tiller.

An aspect of the difficulties within the system is the lack of available legal aid. The Joint Council on the Welfare of Immigrants is urging a reform of the legal aid system, arguing that a functioning system would be much cheaper for the public purse than the present approach.

According to the French charity Utopia 56 there are still some 2,000 migrants on the Channel coast in France.

The Institute for Public Policy Research have observed the need to consider the demand side of the equation, to see why so many are fleeing their countries of origin: ”In order to have an effective response you need to go beyond enforcement.”

Elsewhere possible solutions to the problem are being considered. In Switzerland, since 2019 a new approach has been tried: the main aim is to target a total of 140 days for the complete processing of applications, while not cutting corners. The three critical issues are:

1. to have enough decision makers

2. fast streaming easier cases and moving more difficult ones to a different process and

3. ensuring access to lawyers.

Meanwhile in Spain a more friendly attitude to arrivals is being pursued, both for the economy and to allow family reunions. The Spanish government is opposed to what it terms “Melonisation”, the Italian plan to offload migrant processing to Albania.

Human Rights Watch have a piece noting that discerning the popular attitude towards refugees very much depends on the question asked. People are more sympathetic when it is phrased in terms of what would happen to deported asylum seekers rather than immigrant numbers arriving here.

Finally, a success story of an “illegal” migrant:

An immigration lawyer reviews Paddington in Peru: A very British bear – Free Movement

Andrew Hemming

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