Stories from the Small Boats Crisis


Notes from a talk at the Cheltenham Literature Festival

October 2025

This was the title of an extremely interesting talk given by three different speakers at the Festival on the the vexed subject of the small boats crossing the Channel. You would have to be living in a cave in the UK not to know that the boats crossing the Channel is causing huge political waves in the UK. Politicians are scrambling to come up with solutions to stop the crossings. The tabloid and right-wing newspapers keep up a seemingly never ending series of stories on the subject. Some communities are sufficiently angry to stand outside hotels where asylum seekers are housed. The nation as a whole seems very angry.

It was interesting therefore to go to a talk where there was a different take on the subject give by the three speakers. They were:

  • Nicola Kelly, an investigative journalist but had worked for the Home and Foreign offices before leaving
  • Horatio Clare an author and
  • Mir Rahami who at 13, had to flee Afghanistan.

There were a number of points made as you would expect. The ‘crisis’ as it has come to be called was presented as a crisis for us rather than a crisis for those on the boats. The sufferings of such people and the privations they have experienced has got lost in all the invective hurled at them by a number of politicians and journalists. The rights of the people arriving seem to have got lost.

If there were no wars there would probably be no refugees, or least fewer of them, it was claimed. We have noted in previous posts that the UK has been happy to sell arms and issue open licences for such arms with only weak controls on where they end up. There is a kind of irony in this activity which causes deep distress and mayhem in the countries involved while the same politicians complain about those escaping arriving on our shores.

The similarity to Brexit was discussed. Misinformation promoted by some of the same individuals making much noise over the crossings. A balanced view never seems to emerge either from them or those elements of the media which support them. Another aspect of Brexit was mentioned. It is often a complaint that we do not know who the immigrants are and that some may be people with criminal pasts. This is made worse because we no longer have access to the databases having left the EU. Brexit in other words has made the problem worse.

One interesting point – a point you seldom hear discussed – is that money and investment can go where it wishes. Goods can be traded internationally largely without let or hindrance. But people cannot. So the forces which cause economic imbalances are unfettered but those affected are not permitted to respond by leaving.

A major part of the government’s response is to ‘smash the gangs’. There is a lot of talk on this topic but always with the assumption that the gangs are in the Continent. What about the gangs operating here about which there seems to be silence? Might it be part of the UK being a victim in some way of the lawless gangs? That gangs which operate here don’t fit that narrative.

A major point made – a lament really – was the lack of politicians willing to speak out in favour of immigration and the benefits they bring. There are problems but there just seems to be a constant flow of one way talk about the ‘crisis’. It became self-fulfilling. The ex-Home Office speaker said the department were obsessed with the media and tried to come up with sensationalist material to show they were on top of the subject.

The presentation was well received.

(Image, BBC)

UK Refugee Crisis: Strategies to Address Small Boat Arrivals


Refugees and boat crossings still making political waves

July 2025

With the state visit of President Macron this week, the small boats are back in the headlines. As Macron and Starmer try to thrash out a deal to reduce the numbers arriving in the UK, the UK has been pressuring the French police to use new tactics against the irregular immigrants, allowing them to stop boats from up to 300 meters from the shoreline rather than only dealing with them on land. Presently they can only intervene if there is danger to life. The police are, in any event accused of puncturing inflatable boats as well as more heinously using tear gas and pepper spray on children.

An agreement between the UK and France on a “one in one out” basis, so that any arrival can be sent

back to France if replaced by a candidate deemed more worthy by dint of family connection, has been mooted, but the press conference will be on Thursday afternoon, so we will not know just yet. At all events, other EU nations are complaining about a possible deal which will make it more likely that arrivals in Europe will end up on their shores.

‘we have to make migration boring again’

Meanwhile, Amy Pope, the CEO of the (UN’s) International Organisation for Migration, has suggested any proposed changes will be unlikely to work, bearing in mind the level of commitment the migrants have already put in before reaching the English Channel. She is also in favour of de-politicising the debate. Her comment “We have to make migration boring again” is clearly  the most valuable contribution from anyone so far.

Arrivals

As noted last month, the number of arrivals in the UK on small boats continues to break records (20,000 by the end of June). This has been put down to good weather, smugglers’ new techniques and increasing conflicts around the world (the largest number of hopeful asylum seekers in Calais are from Sudan).

The Government is hoping to save up to £1 billion by speeding up backlog processing. However, the backlog is now 90,000 rather than 50,000 in 2024. In 2024, there were84,000 asylum claims – In the EU as a whole there were nearly a million – 997,000.

With much discussion on what legal routes immigrants can take, here is a summary of the current situation in the UK: there are presently 7 options.

  1. UNHCR can select people it thinks appropriate to send (the places cannot be applied for, and amount to only 1% of all refugees).
  2. UK Resettlement Scheme. The status of this is unclear; it includes community sponsorship and accounts for about 700 arrivals last year.
  3. Mandate Scheme. This is for people with relatives in the UK. 23 cases were reported in 2024.
  4. Family Reunions. Applies after refugee status has been agreed by the UK.

Mostly Syrians , Iranians and Eritreans. 5000 in quarter 1 2025.

  • Hong Kong. Numbers low now as most cases already settled.
  • Afghanistan. ACRS and ARAOP have now been closed, with virtually no explanation. “Further measures…[will be] announced later this year.” More Afghans have been arriving by boats than under these arrangements anyway.
  • Ukraine. Numbers also down now to about 4000 a month. Only 1698 asylum claims since 2022.

The Refugee Council have a new report New Roots, New Futures, arguing for a national integration strategy for refugees in the UK. They are particularly exercised by the need for new arrivals to have access to help in obtaining work and housing once they have been given right to remain.

The Green Party have put forward a plan for the Home Office to be split, with various options for the immigration departments.

By way of context, it should be noted that 73% of the world’s refugees are in Low/Middle Income countries, 67% of them are in countries neighbouring the one they are fleeing. Per head of population the countries with the highest number of refugees are Lebanon (1 in 8 of the population), Aruba and Chad.

The European Convention on Human Rights has become an issue again with questionable claims being made about possible unfair exploitation of loopholes. It should be stated that the Convention does not affect individual countries’ immigration policy, and that it is rare for claimants to a right of “family life” and such to win their case. The ECHR has ruled against the UK twice in the last two years, in neither case about immigration/deportation issues. They have generally prevented removals from the UK about once every 4.5 years since 1980. Leaving the Convention over this issue would seem rather unnecessary.

Andrew Hemming


Recent posts:

Political Waves: The Crisis of Refugee Boat Crossings in 2025


Refugees and the boat crossings still making political waves

June 2025

This month we are back to the small boats.  So far in 2025 some 15,000 arrivals have been recorded (1,100 on one day).  The Home Office say this is due to better weather and more people crammed in to boats.  In quarter 1 numbers were up by 20% on last year – mainly from the usual places – Eritrea, Afghanistan, Sudan.

The asylum backlog is down to 78,000, but with a lower grant rate (49% over the last year) the improvement may not be maintained.  The number of claimants jailed for “illegal arrival” has doubled in the last year.  Between 2022 and 2024, 556 arrivals were prosecuted under the Illegal Migration Act and 455 convicted (half of them were said to be piloting the boats, willingly or otherwise, and were therefore “facilitators”). In the latter half of last year, 53 people were arrested for people smuggling including many who happened to be steering the boats and many of them children.

Plans for removing arrivals to third countries for processing have made little progress ; Albania said no, North Macedonia & Kosovo have not been asked  but say they are open to discussion.

3,800 Afghans are currently awaiting homes (who came under the ARS scheme and were left unsupported). Also it has been claimed that an unnamed Special Forces officer blocked the entry of 1585 Afghans (it has been suggested this might be related to potential war crimes revelations).

Mary Bosworth (Oxford Professor of Criminology) has an interesting piece on the outsourced immigration detainee escorting system Mary Bosworth (@mfbosworth.bsky.social) — Bluesky

7000 Syrians are still in limbo awaiting a UK decision on processing their claims after a pause (the new regime is still being monitored, though presumably it will eventually be possible for many to return there).

The US has taken on “refugees” from South Africa, white residents supposedly under threat.  So far there have been 50,000 enquiries and 68 actual moves.

The Home Secretary has said she is working on a “fast-tracking” removal system for migrants from “safe” countries; these have not yet been named.

Of the 108,000 claimants for asylum status in the last year 16,000 were from holders of student visas. The government is likely to address this question soon.

Immigrant-focused group British Future have polled the public on attitudes to the word “immigrant”.  For 70% of respondents this conjured up people on small boats, while 46% thought of imported workers.  Of those who wanted to see a reduction in immigration, 49% prioritised the boats, very few mentioning worker or student arrivals.  The research also finds that 59% of the public, and 64% of 2024 Labour voters, agree that migrants living in the UK and paying taxes should be eligible to apply for citizenship after five years or less.

Polling organisation More in Common found that 51% thought a fall in immigration a good thing, 57% opining that the level was still too high.

One of the more interesting ideas for Refugee Week is that of Lancaster, where an exhibition, Escape to Safety, will give visitors an interactive view of the refugee experience.  More on that here

Finally, the Government’s Spending Review this week had a couple of points on the immigration/asylum seekers question.  Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the new Border Security Command will receive up to £280m more a year by the end of the spending-review period.  She also promises that all spending on hotels for asylum seekers waiting for their cases to be heard will stop by the end of this parliament.

Andrew Hemming

Refugee report: March


Government attitudes to immigration still causing problems

March 2025

The Government’s Border Security Asylum and Immigration Bill is in its committee stage this week. Much interest has been shown by MPs in using the occasion to express opposition to the Home Office’s guidance on denying citizenship to “illegal” migrants, however long ago their arrival may have been. This guidance has been put forward as a gloss on the “good character requirement” for naturalisation, deeming those who arrive illegally via “dangerous journeys” to be ineligible. The SNP have put forward an amendment to obviate this ruling and the Home Affairs Select Committee have sought an explanation for the change in policy.

Brian Mathew, the Liberal Democrat MP for Melksham and Devizes, said asylum seekers should be given the ability and support to work “instead of leaving them in administrative limbo in hotels around the country costing the taxpayer millions”.

There has been concern amongst MPs also about the government’s decision to transfer some of the foreign aid budget to pay for increases in defence expenditure. This will obviously have a bearing on the amount of funding available for countries with refugee issues. According to the FT, presently it is believed that half the foreign aid budget will now  go on migrant hotel accommodation.

The Home Secretary has been visiting Northern France, the first Home Secretary to do so in recent years. Yvette Cooper is bringing £172 million to aid the French authorities against people smugglers. The National Crime Agency believes that they now have a better understanding of how the boats and engines arrive on the Channel coast, mainly from Germany. Germany has now made it a crime to facilitate illegal migration to the UK.

At the same time as immigration is being targeted, the Government is increasing its deportation levels. This post by Prof. Mary Bosworth is worth reading.

The small boats continue; this year so far the numbers are 40% down on last year, but better weather will probably change the ratio. 2024 data indicate claims were up 18% on 2023, and grant rates were down from about 67% to about 47%. A particular drop in acceptances has been felt by Afghans: from around 90% agreement to around 50% (with legal routes barely used now); it has been suggested that the Home Office considers the Taliban no threat to a wide range of society now.  The largest influx currently is from Sudan.

Other notes: The Guardian featured the immigration regime in Spain, where a less hostile attitude has brought economic results with arrivals able to work.The Home Office has been accused of failing to correctly assess the ages of child migrants by the Refugee and Migrant Children’s Consortium. And the UK is refusing to pay the £50 million compensation demanded by Rwanda for the collapsed migrant removal policy.

We are grateful to group member Andrew for producing this report.

Refugee report


September 2024

We are pleased to post the current month’s refugee report produced by group member Andrew.

Following the General Election, a new approach to the issue of immigration and asylum seeking has been promised. Straight away the new government declared the deportation of irregular immigrants to Rwanda would no longer be pursued. It is not known whether Rwanda will return the £270 million received in advance. The new Home Secretary will review the position by 1st October following complaints from asylum seekers rounded up in preparation for flights to Rwanda. It was also intimated that changes would be made to the Illegal Migration Act of 2023. On which topic, the House of Lords Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee has published a report noting that the Home Office has been trying to remove some barriers to the processing system under the Act, observing that it was “lamentable that the Home Office put forward an Act of Parliament that it has simply not been able to implement.”

The Prime Minister has announced the creation of a new Border Security Command designed to “smash the gangs” in some undisclosed fashion. The Command would be funded by money previously earmarked for the Rwanda plan and would be responsible for coordinating the activities of Immigration Enforcement, MI5, the Border Force and the National Crime Agency in tackling the gangs.

Latest statistics reveal that 22,000 migrants have arrived by boat this year so far, about the same as last year. The biggest numbers are from Afghanistan (despite some increase in the number of legal arrivals from there), Iran, Vietnam, Turkiye and Syria.

224,000 claimants are still in the system despite efforts to clear the backlog. 40% of them are still awaiting an initial decision (the total number is high because of lower levels of initial acceptance leading to a large number of appeals.)

These pieces have tended to concentrate on the people arriving in the UK on boats, but it is important to remember that the refugee crisis is worldwide. This is reflected in the sudden increase in numbers of refugees from the new hotspot of Sudan (mostly in the neighbouring parts of Africa but also 60% of the most recent boat arrivals here). This piece gives more information: The Sudan War has Been Dubbed the ‘Forgotten Crisis’ by the Same Media who Have ‘Forgotten to Report on it’ – Here’s Why – Byline Times.

Similarly, this recent article indicates that most displaced people stay close to their home area and don’t necessarily want to come to Europe, a fact that is often forgotten in the debate: Refuge in the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean: Spaces of containment or places of choice? | Journal of Refugee Studies | Oxford Academic (oup.com).

Also on a non-UK topic, the German government have instituted temporary controls on its borders to prevent the arrival of irregular migrants (and extremists) from other EU countries. This is contrary to the Schengen agreement on free movement within the Union.

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Rwanda report


Cross party committee on human rights criticizes the government’s Rwanda policy

February 2024

The Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Bill ends its House of Lord’s stage today (12 February) and returns to the Commons. The Bill has been roundly condemned by many human rights and other organisations and the committee said that it is ‘fundamentally incompatible with Britain’s human rights obligations’.

The Supreme Court has already ruled that Rwanda is not a safe country and the government’s attempt to pass a law simply saying it is is bit like passing a law saying water can run uphill. The Committee went on to say ‘the Bill disapplies laws that might prevent and individual’s removal to Rwanda including many of the key provisions of the Human Rights Act.

‘It might also impact on Northern Ireland, that it would both undermine the Windsor Framework and the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement’.

It also raises the point about UK’s reputation. We have they say, a reputation for respect for human rights of which ‘we should be proud’. 

Immigration, and most recently the Channel crossings, have generated a considerable degree of angst and hostile media coverage. This is not recent and goes back many years and started to emerge as a political force during the Blair years. In many respects it goes back further to various waves of immigrants such as the Huguenots from France, Flemings from the low countries and Jews fleeing Russia. All have been met with hostility of some degree. 

Recent immigrants are cast as not really refugees at all but economic migrants, are cheating the system, are living off benefits and so forth. Newspapers – and not just tabloids but the Daily Telegraph and the Independent – have carried hundreds of negative stories and helped keep the temperature high. The Sun even ran a story that swans were being stolen from the London parks and eaten by immigrants (invented). The raised media attention has increased public concern to which the politicians are obliged to reflect. 

Watch the Amnesty video

Anomaly

A curious anomaly is that people who’s offspring emigrate to live and work overseas (as ‘economic migrants’ no less) are spoken of in terms of pride. Emigrants good: immigrants bad. 

Another curiosity is that many of the politicians leading the hostility and proposing ever harsher measures including deportation to Rwanda, are themselves sons or daughters of immigrants. Priti Patel, Kwasi Kwarteng, Suella Braverman, Rishi Sunak, Danny Kruger and going back further, Michael Howard (Romania). 

The benefits of immigration to this country almost don’t get a look in. In November last year, the government’s own statistics show that around one in 5 of people working in the health service were not born in the UK. Indeed, the service would struggle to survive (even more than now) if these people were not working here. 

The entire debate is based on hysteria. Boat people have assumed a disproportionate sense of anger and fear even though they represent a small proportion of all immigrants to this country. The majority do go on to claim asylum. The hysteria and media mis- and disinformation has resulted in the plan to deport a few hundred to Rwanda, a policy which is performative rather than likely to be effective. 

Sources: Daily Mail, FullFact; Liberty; Hansard, Guardian (accessed 12 February 2024)


The Salisbury Amnesty group celebrates 50 years of existence this year

Refugee report: January


Latest report on this politically charged problem

January 2024

Refugees and in particular, those arriving via small boats across the Channel, continue to cause considerable concern among the political classes and in the media. Overtaken in the past few days by the Post Office scandal, the matter will burst back into view next week when the Rwanda bill comes back to the Commons.

The total number of “small boats” arrivals in 2023 was 29,437 which was 36% lower than the figure for 2022. Bad weather in the latter part of the year has been a factor. Border Force expect the numbers to rise again in 2024. 20% of the arrivals were from Afghanistan.

On claims, of the 40,000 arrivals between July 2022 and May 2023, 90% applied for asylum. The PM’s claim to have removed the legacy of pre-2022 cases is questionable. The Office for Statistics Regulation is investigating.

The Times reports that Home Office officials can’t clear the rolling asylum backlog, because more than 50,000 claims are for people who are in the U.K. but barred from permanent settlement under new laws passed last year. The paper calls it “indefinite limbo.”

The statistics summary states that of “the 112,138 initial asylum decisions made between January and 28 December 2023, 35,119 were non-substantive decisions”. This includes withdrawals, and it seems reasonable to conclude that the vast majority of those 35,119 decisions were withdrawals given that the statistics to the end of September 2023 showed that 18,709 applications had been withdrawn since June 2022, most of these in 2023. It has been clear since last year that the government was using this as a tool to artificially reduce the number of cases.

This means that over 31% of ‘decisions’ that were made in 2023 were probably withdrawals. These are people who are still here and a large proportion of them are likely to be refugees. All that has been achieved by removing them from the asylum system is an increase in the likelihood of them being subject to exploitation, as people who are left outside the system are far more vulnerable to this.

A report in the i (paywall) shows what has been happening with the withdrawal of asylum claims,  Apparently those decision makers who met targets received gift vouchers and those who didn’t were subjected to performance management. In the meantime, those on the receiving end include people who do not speak English as well as those who were living in Home Office accommodation but have been accused of absconding from it.

In Parliament, the Safety of Rwanda Bill returns to its final debate stage next Tuesday and Wednesday (16th and 17th January), when there will be a large number of amendments, the majority of which will fail. The bill will be considered by a committee of the whole house, meaning all MPs can contribute to the committee stage debates which are normally limited to members of a bill committee, and these are the debates where Tory right-wingers will try to toughen the bill. For example, they may try to remove the clause in the bill allowing individuals to appeal against deportation, or to include provisions saying ministers should ignore European court of human rights injunctions stopping deportations flights. Tory centrists may also try to amend the bill to tighten the requirement on ministers to obey the European convention on human rights.

To end on some good news, the Dorset Echo has a report that some of the asylum seekers on the Bibby Stockholm have started working with local charities, particularly those concerned with the homeless. Being prevented from working has left them with lots of spare time and many of them have experience of charitable work in their former lives.

Andrew Hemming

Refugee report, December


Refugees and Rwanda continue to fill the headlines

December 2023

As the House of Commons debates the Government’s latest attempt to make their Rwanda project fly, this month’s emphasis has been very much on the small boats. On the progress of the Bill over the next few weeks, anything might happen. The government managed to get the second reading of their bill passed on 12th to clear the way for the plan to remove some people to Rwanda. 

As a topline figure, the number of arrivals by small boat this year has reached 29,000; this is about a third down on last year. It has been argued, however, that it’s the number of boats that is down, not people – they are using bigger boats. We have no confirmation of this.

The Government has changed the rules for asylum seekers/refugees following their processing; they now have 28 days to leave the temporary hostels they have been confined in and to find their own accommodation.  As a result the level of homelessness among this community has increased dramatically.  The Evening Standard claims that the numbers of homeless in the migrant community has increased 39% in a month (presumably this is a London figure).

The big increase in the number of claimant withdrawals has been exercising the legal profession.  These are migrants who have claimed refugee or asylum seeker status, but have not turned up for interview.  As a result, 17,000 claimants who have apparently withdrawn their claim are now unaccounted for, though presumably they are still in the UK (the Home Office has no knowledge of their whereabouts).  On a similar topic, of the 154 unaccompanied child asylum seekers who went missing earlier this year, 132 are still missing.

While the number of legacy cases is being reduced, new claims are still keeping the total high.  The Government’s aim of clearing the pre-June 2022 backlog has not yet been achieved (it’s believed to be still about 10,000, and these are among the most complicated cases).  Meanwhile, new applications have amounted to 90,000, leaving the total figure at around 109,000 (less than the peak).  It should be noted that Home Office staff turnover is very high and it may well be that the 17,000 alluded to above include names taken off the backlog to reduce the figures.  Also the Home Affairs Committee this week elicited the information that approval levels went down to 38% in Q2 and back up to 67% in Q3 – the reason is unclear.

Small boats population accounts for around 6.6% of the total

It is worth pointing out, as part of the argument, that the small boats population amounts to about 6.6% of the net immigration numbers for the year (the 700,000 excess of arrivals v departures) figure) and half that for the gross total (incomers only)

Another problem area has been the gap between a claimant being granted leave and receiving a Biometric Residence Permit – the Home Office claim not to know how long the average wait in limbo is.

The apparent suicide of an asylum seeker on the Bibby Stockholm has drawn attention to the cost of the barge, currently estimated at £22 million.  The number of boat people on board is not known, but is believed to be around 200 currently.

On the issue of potential refugees from Gaza, the request in October from various refugee organisations in the UK to the Government to come up with a scheme for taking numbers on, as was done with Ukraine, does not appear to have been acted upon as yet.

Finally, a survey by Labour List this week invited respondents to say how many arrivals had actually been removed to Rwanda.  The percentage saying, correctly, none was 48%.

Andrew Hemming

Write for Rights


This Sunday, 10 December at the Cathedral

December 2023

Past event

Members of the Salisbury Group will be at the Cathedral cloisters from around 10 o’clock on Sunday for our annual Write for Rights and people in Salisbury are invited to come and sign. We must not forget that many people are in prison or at risk of execution often for no more than disagreeing with the powers that be in their country. They have committed no crime but have may said something disobliging or critical of a president, king or other leader and frequently without trial, can end up in prison for many years. Human Rights defenders, lawyers or journalists are all caught up in this activity.

United Kingdom

The situation in the UK is fast approaching a kind of crisis concerning the issue of deporting people to Rwanda. The government will be tabling a bill next week to disapply sections of the Human Rights Act to enable the deportation of immigrants to Rwanda. Previous plans were blocked by the Supreme Court because the human rights situation in Rwanda is unsatisfactory. Refugees sent there were at risk of refoulement that is being sent back to a country where they would be at risk of bad treatment of some kind. A plan last June to despatch a plane load from Boscombe Down, an airfield a mile or so from where this is being written, was halted by the European Court.

The issue of the ‘boat people’ has become a major issue for the government being one of the Prime Minister’s 5 objectives. Although only a small part of the overall level of immigration, it has assumed huge significance to the point where there might be a confidence vote next week if the bill is not passed. Ostensibly, it is partly due to anger around the gangs involved in organising the crossings. The hope is that if the Rwanda deportations can get underway, this will act as a disincentive to people wishing to cross the Channel. There are many who view this as wishful thinking.

Critics, including Conservative politicians, point out that the bill – even if it becomes law – will not prevent claimants appealing to Strasbourg thus delaying the deportation process until way beyond the likely date of the General Election. This is leading some politicians to demand that we leave the European Court as well.

A leading proponent of this is Danny Kruger the MP for Devizes in Wiltshire, who is co-founder of the ‘New Conservatives’ whose ten point plan is built around immigration matters.

The whole matter has reached almost absurd levels. The Supreme Court looked carefully at the evidence and concluded that Rwanda is not a safe country. Critics and journalists are frequently detained and tortured in detention. Opposition is effectively banned. There are disappearances. A new treaty has been signed between the UK and Rwanda a few days ago which claims to overcome these human rights problems identified by the Supreme Court and clear the way for deportations to take place.

It is almost an example of national hysteria combined with false promises coming home to roost. It was claimed that Brexit would enable the UK to regain its sovereignty a benefit of which was to stop boat crossings and reduce immigration generally. Yet recent figures show immigration at a record 745,000. The vast majority are here legitimately and are needed in a range of sectors such as health, horticulture and care homes. These organisations would find operating without them almost impossible. Yet hysteria has been ratcheted up by the media with its focus on the boat crossings. New proposals will prevent family members joining those already here which will cause great anguish in many, many cases.

We have now arrived at a situation where the government wished to disapply parts of the Human Rights Act and even contemplate departing from the European Convention to join Russia which was ejected in 2022. The statements around this matter by local MP Danny Kruger are to be regretted.

Refugee summary


The October update on the current state of refugees into the UK
October 2023

The week’s big event has been the start of the Supreme Court’s review of the legality of the Rwanda deportation plan. They are expected to take 3 days to come to a conclusion, but this will not be made known for some weeks. Also, the Mayor of Portland’s planning permission protest against the Bibby Stockholm ship was heard this week (she lost) and the Home Office have reported that claimants will be sent back to the barge from 19th October. In passing, the Home Office is refusing to state the cost of the barge, as it would not be “in the public interest”.

The government’s Illegal Migration Act is facing a court challenge from the Northern Ireland Human Rights Commission (NIHRC) on the ground that it breaches the Windsor Framework. The framework is the revised post-Brexit deal for Northern Ireland, which was agreed by the UK and EU earlier this year. It deals mostly with trade issues but also includes a human rights element. It commits the UK not to water down the human rights provisions that flow from the Good Friday Agreement.

Opening up the UN Refugee Convention to reform would cause the world to “go backwards” on refugee rights, a UN leader has said. Gillian Triggs, UN Assistant Secretary-General, told the One Young World Summit in Belfast that there is a “global environment of populist rhetoric” that is damaging to refugees. The 1951 UN Refugee Convention outlines a number of protections for refugees, including basic minimum standards, and asserts they should not be returned to a country where they face serious threats to their life or freedom.

Suella Braverman

In a trip to Washington DC last month, the Home Secretary, Suella Braverman, said it should be questioned whether the application of the UN’s Refugee Convention is “fit for our modern age”.

Channel crossings

The mild Autumn has kept the small boats coming, the total people arriving for the year so far being just over 25,000. This is down by about 20% on last year, mostly because of the absence of arrivals from Albania. There have been two major reports this month: Safe Passage has been looking at safe routes for prospective refugees and the Refugee Council have looked at the data on arrivals, and discuss the impact of the new Illegal Migration Act. The Refugee Council’s analysis of new Home Office statistics shows that three in every four of the people who have crossed the channel so far this year would be recognised as refugees if the UK Government processed their asylum applications. This is higher than the Refugee’s Council previous analysis of those who made the journey in 2022, which found it was almost two-thirds. The statistics also show that:

More than half (54 per cent) of those who have made the perilous crossing come from just five countries – Afghanistan, Iran, Eritrea, Syria and Sudan.

With the exception of Albanians, the number of people crossing the channel is higher in 2023 compared to 2022.

Analysis based on the data shows that once the Illegal Migration Act 2023 comes into force:

 • Each year, over 27,000 refugees who cross the channel will be denied status in the UK.

 • As few as 3.5 per cent of those people arriving by small boat, 1,297 people, will be removed from the UK to their own country.

 • 35,409 people who arrive in the UK by small boat could be left in limbo each year, having had their asylum claim deemed permanently inadmissible but not having been removed.

• Even with a safe third country agreement in place with Rwanda which allows for up to 10,000 people to be removed there annually at least 25,409 people will be left in a state of permanent limbo each year.

(The Illegal Migration Act The Illegal Migration Act became law on 20 July. The main elements of the Act include the creation of a duty for the Home Secretary to arrange for the removal of anyone who arrives irregularly into the UK – including, but not limited to, those who arrive by small boat. Anyone who is covered by the duty to remove will also have any asylum application or relevant human rights claim deemed automatically inadmissible. )

The Safe Passage report concentrates on devising a better system of dealing with new arrivals. It recommends developing safe routes, not least to end the control of the smugglers, an organized Europe-wide system to share the responsibility, and a recommitment to the UN-based regulations under international law.

The Migration Advisory Committee has recommended that the shortage occupation list is abolished and that people in the asylum system with permission to work are allowed to work in any role. These are some of the recommendations in the full review of the shortage occupation list, published this week.

With thanks to group member Andrew for the work in producing this report.

AH

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