Refugees and asylum seekers still consuming political capital
September 2026
With the return of Parliament this month, the Immigration and Asylum Bill is back in action. The Bill has passed its second reading and is now in committee stage. The most contentious parts are the refusal of family reunions, the extended time frame for residence, and the modern slavery definitions. An August meeting of the Regulatory Policy Committee of the House considered the Home Office’s impact assessment to be “not fit for purpose”, and Article 8 on modern slavery to be “inadequate”.
Boat crossings
On the small boats front, numbers remain down (102 vessels between June and August, the lowest since 2019, but they are now much bigger boats, taking up to 230 people. Whereas in 2018, 7 was the average load, it is now 65). In 2026, 17,000 migrants have crossed the Channel so far. The backlog of pending cases continues to fall, down to 40,000, the lowest since June 2019, but the grant rate is falling as well, down to 38% acceptances (it had been up to 77%).
With the resultant increase in appeals, the 24-week target for hearing appeals may be hard to achieve. Concern has been widely expressed that the new Independent Immigration Appeals Authority will be free to use non-qualified legal staff to adjudicate the appeals.
40,000 migrants were returned in the year to June, three quarters of them were “voluntary”, mainly to Albania, Brazil, India and Poland. The fine weather over the summer did not materially affect the numbers of crossings, which remain lower than recent years. Other factors include more collaborative action with the French authorities, and seizure of 1100 boats, according to the National Crime Agency.
Migrants and asylum seekers who are already here continue to be the focus of interest. By the end of June only 16,021 claimants were in hotels, but the 69,000 were in other temporary accommodation.
Beyond the statistics, public attitudes in the UK may not be reflected in the mainstream media. A recent YouGov poll indicated that 75% of the public would distinguish between migrants and refugees and 59% thought that too much attention was paid to how migrants came rather than why. Nevertheless, another poll revealed that 40% believed that more small boats were arriving this year than last, and only 22% (correctly) believing there were fewer.
Immigrants and crime
The OECD has observed that there has been little evidence of change in crime figures despite the amount of immigration. In the UK, convictions among non-UK citizens come out at about 12%, the same level as for the adult UK population. Higher levels of lawbreaking were observed among Afghans (sexual offences) and Albanians (drugs) but not substantially. The Government’s advisory guide for asylum seekers on British culture has not had any significant effect thus far. A feature of recent unrest at Portsmouth and Dover has been claims of high crime rates by immigrants.
Across Europe a similar trend is noticeable. Despite the furore in Ceuta, numbers in the first quarter were down by 46% on 2025, but there were more deaths than previously. Member countries of the EU nevertheless continue to be much engaged on the issue. The European Parliament in June approved an overhaul of migration policy, expressly to speed up deportations. EU interior ministers from 22 countries agreed to take “any necessary measures to safeguard public order and address risks arising from secondary movements” (by which they mean migrants moving on from their first country of arrival). The Schengen Agreement has already been suspended in certain places (notably in the spat between liberal Spain and hard-line Italy).
The other big issue for the EU is the search for “hubs” outside the Union for removal of rejected migrants. Five EU countries have agreed to sign deals. Rwanda and Uganda are said to be compliant, but the question remains as to who has the responsibility for such deportees. The European Court of Human Rights is expected to adjudicate against the governments; the Council of Europe has already observed that the changes in policy pose “considerable human rights risks.”
Climate
Finally, with ongoing climate change and a possible exceptional El Niño, there has been much discussion of “climate mobility”. The UN Refugee Convention has nothing on the topic, and there is no legal category of “climate refugee”, but the International Court of Justice has given advisory opinion recognising the issue.
AH
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