October 2024
The problem of boat crossings has largely dropped out of the news recently with the conflict in the Middle East soaking up media attention. The Conservative party’s leadership election is also a focus of interest particularly as the two remaining candidates have hard line opinions on immigration.
As the new government prepares to reveal its Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill (largely designed to replace the jettisoned Illegal Migration Act), it is worth looking at the current situation with the small boats. Under the IMA, all applications are deemed inadmissible. This has left us with a backlog of 33,000 claimants in limbo (mainly Afghans and Syrians). Before the IMA, 90% of claims had been accepted. This might not be the case in the future as the Home Secretary also wants enhanced return procedures.
The high levels of pending cases has been exacerbated by the lower levels of acceptance (down to about 60% of cases) with a resulting big increase in the number of appeals. In passing, the Independent notes that the oldest asylum claim at the Home Office was made nearly 17 years ago. Also, Switzerland has improved its processing, which used to take up to 4 years, but is now about 100 days, which may be a pointer for a way forward.
The charity Safe Passage sees signs of improvement (e.g. now allowing children to join relatives who are not parents) but meanwhile the total number of arrivals this year is over 25,000 – slightly more than last year but fewer than 2022. The government is keen to align with European procedures on irregular arrivals, but within Europe itself cracks are showing. This week 17 EU countries pushed for more effective return procedures for rejected applicants under the new Asylum and Migration Pact. At present the actual return rate for those to be sent back is only around 30%. An amended return process is presently stuck in the European Parliament.
Following the Ukraine war, the percentage of the world’s refugees in Europe has increased to over 20%. New research this week suggests that the numbers of irregular migrants in Europe is not increasing substantially (still at around 1% of the population for most countries). The MIrreM project calculate that between 2.6 and 3.2 million irregular migrants are living in the 12 countries they researched, with 594,000 to 745,000 in the UK. Figures are not completely reliable owing to many arrivals staying under the radar.
While we concern ourselves with the relatively small number of refugees arriving on the south coast, it is worth looking at the worldwide situation. With war zones in the Middle East, Sudan and Myanmar, not to mention Ukraine, the number of displaced persons has mushroomed in the last year. Ten million Sudanese have been displaced, 2 million to another country, 4.5 million Yemenis are internally displaced, while in Gaza 90% of the population and in Lebanon 1 million out of 5 ½ have had to move under Israeli attack, in some cases many times. In the larger Palestine, plus Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, there are 58 recognised camps housing 1.5 million refugees (1 in 3 of all Palestinians, some dating back to 1948. The UN authorities in the area (UNRWA and UNIFIL) have pointed out that many of the displaced inhabitants may well choose to head for Europe, adding to the pressure on countries there.
In Myanmar, not only those under threat from the military, but also many Rohingya have left the country, about 1.3 million, mostly to Bangladesh.
AH


