Tag: Gaza

Amnesty Report: Israel’s Alleged Genocide in Gaza


Amnesty International publishes report alleging that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza

December 2024

Amnesty has published the results of a comprehensive study of Israeli actions in Gaza and has concluded that they amount to the crime of genocide and contrary to Article II of the Geneva Convention. This is essentially killing members of a group and causing serious physical or mental harm to a group. Genocide is distinguished from other forms of war crime by the concept of intent. The report is comprehensive and is over 300 pages long. It took into account a wide range of evidence including video, interviews, IDF footage, analysis of Israeli politician’s statements and other factors.

Amnesty International complemented these interviews with its analysis of visual and digital evidence. This included an extensive range of evidence like satellite imagery, video footage, and photographs. These were posted on social media or obtained directly by its researchers. It authenticated and, where possible, geolocated video footage and photographs. It reviewed an extensive collection of media reports, statements, reports and data sets published by UN agencies and humanitarian organizations operating in Gaza, as well as Palestinian and Israeli human rights groups. It reviewed statements by senior Israeli government and military officials and official Israeli bodies, including spokespersons of the Israeli military and the Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT), a unit within Israel’s Ministry of Defense tasked with administering civilian matters in the Occupied Palestinian Territory (OPT).

Judging intent is always difficult although there are many statements from politicians which are quite open on this point. Other factors include:

  • Attacks using a wide range of ordinances including 2,000 lb bombs. Some is wide area ordinance which clearly cannot be targeted,
  • many attacks are carried out between 11pm and 4am when people are asleep,
  • some attacks are carried out without warnings,
  • the buffer zone surrounding Gaza has been increased by 16% with explosive charges laid. This has seriously degraded the agricultural potential of this land,
  • waste water management systems and associated pipework has been destroyed,
  • the largest displacement of people (1.1 million) since the 1948 Nakba,
  • promises about allowing increased numbers of aid trucks have not been met.

The ferocity of the attacks and the scale of destruction in Gaza with a death now around 44,000 is horrifying. The report needs to be read in full to grasp the extent of the evidence which has been painstakingly assembled. It has many similarities to the UN report we posted a day or so ago.

Amnesty International sought to include a response from Israeli authorities to this report and the Israeli Foreign Ministry has said ‘The deplorable and fanatical organization Amnesty International has once again produced a fabricated report that is entirely false and based on lies.’ It is a pity a more reasoned or forensic response is not available.

The US has also issued a statement disagreeing with Amnesty’s conclusions. It is also reported that Amnesty in Israeli does not support the conclusions, although according to Haaretz, there seem to be differences of opinion.

Readers will have to examine the copious evidence provided by both Amnesty and the UN to come to their own conclusions on this matter. The attack by Hamas on 7 October was a fearful act with 223 hostages taken and 1,200 killed some brutally. It was clearly a war crime. It caused immense shock in Israel who enjoyed massive military and security superiority. It can be argued that the country has the right to defend itself. The question here is whether the scale of destruction and the death toll of women and children is justified. Is the seizure of land proportionate? Are the forced displacements (sometimes several times over) and destruction of medical facilities and other infrastructure justified? Or does it, as this and other reports claim, amount to a deliberate attempt to crush an entire population?

A key question is proportionality. Has the response been proportionate? It would seem from the evidence it hasn’t been. Another question is effectiveness. Will it achieve security and peace with its neighbours? Unlikely. It will leave a legacy of bitterness which will erupt at some future time. The complete elimination of Hamas is impossible.

Most important of all is the moral dimension which seldom gets an airing. Western nations – most particularly the US but the UK as well – are shielding Israel and enabling it to continue the horror unabated. The notion of a ‘rules based order’ which came into being after WWII has been abandoned. Israel has gone to great lengths to prevent coverage from reaching our screens. It has banned both the UN and journalists from entering Gaza. Nevertheless, we have seen what is happening on our screens on a more or less daily basis. We cannot say we do not know. Is the Labour government compromised? It has a sizeable number of MPs, including the Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, who are members of Labour Friends of Israel. The group has declined to confirm who funds them. History will judge them harshly.

Sources: Amnesty International, Electronic Intifada, Share the World’s Resources; Guardian, Haaretz; Israel Foreign Ministry; Declassified UK; Labour Friends of Israel.

0

UN report on Gaza


UN rapporteur’s report deeply shocking

December 2024

Amnesty International hosted a webinar on 3 December in which the UN Rapporteur on the occupied Palestine territories Francesca Albanese, discussed her report on the area. The report sets out in excruciating detail the extent of destruction in both Gaza and the West Bank and concludes that the extent and comprehensive nature of the destruction amounts to genocide. Parts of the report are distressing to read and anyone accessing it should be aware of the distress it might cause.

The prevailing narrative that much of the Western media have followed, directly or implicitly, is that the current conflict in Gaza is a direct response to the attack by Hamas on 7 October 2023. The IDF is engaged in defensive actions to locate and destroy Hamas operatives and the tunnel network from which they operate. The destruction of hospitals, schools and a host of other buildings is because these buildings are being used by Hamas as covers for their terrorist activities. The thousands of Gazans killed is because they are being used as human shields by Hamas. Little evidence has been provided of this. Thus Israel is acting in a reasonable way to protect its territorial integrity against a ruthless terrorist organisation bent on destroying the state. This is the narrative that Israel has deployed with considerable success. Many believe that if the remaining hostages were released, hostilities would cease and Gaza could return to some kind of normality.

The UN report debunks this narrative comprehensively. It reveals that there are solid grounds for believing that Israel’s intention, as revealed in a leaked Ministry of Intelligence concept paper in October 2023, was to drive all the Gazans out of the territory into the Sinai desert.

There has always been an intention for a Greater Israel (Eretz Yisrael). It is indeed ironic that one of the criticisms of Hamas contained in the disputed phrase ‘from the river to the sea’ to mean driving all the Jews out of Israel from the Jordan river to the Mediterranean, is precisely what Israel is trying to do to the Palestinians.

Descriptions of how Palestinians have been treated are horrific. Around 13,000 thousand children and 700 babies have died many shot in the head or torso (paragraph 14). There have been systematic attacks on food supplies and agriculture which ‘indicate an intent to destroy its population through starvation’ (20). 83% of food aid has been prevented from reaching Gaza.

Unreported, and truly shocking, is the network of Israeli torture camps where thousands have been detained in appalling conditions and many just ‘disappeared’. Many are bound to beds, blindfolded and in nappies (diapers), denied medical treatment, starved, subject to severe beatings, electrocution, and sexual assaults by both humans and animals (22).

West Bank

Violence in the West Bank has increased markedly. Israeli soldiers have carried out over 5,500 raids and conducted over 1,000 attacks. Children have been killed with 169 shot in the head or torso (27). Settler numbers have increased from 256,400 to 714,600 post the Oslo Accords. There has been a campaign of mass arrests and 9,400 are currently detained.

One of the most telling statements in the report is: The cultivation of a political doctrine that frames Palestinian assertions of self-determination as a security threat to Israel has served to legitimize permanent occupation. The deliberate dehumanization of the Palestinians has accompanied systematic ethnic purges from the period 1947–1949 to today. Ideological hatred of Palestinians as such has pervaded segments of society and the Israeli State apparatus (57).

Albanese in her talk said that land is central to Palestinian identity. It is being systematically being removed from them. The central issue is colonialism she says and Britain played a key part in this. She makes the point that Palestinians had nothing to do with the Holocaust but are today suffering from its aftermath.

Journalists are not allowed into Gaza and the UN rapporteur was not allowed in either.

Israel has successfully persuaded Western leaders and much of the media that their actions are somehow a response to violence. They have also been successful in selling the idea that it all started with the attacks of October 7th. Western leaders have gone along with this narrative, giving Israel support both diplomatic and military, enabling them to continue and now intensify their activities in Gaza and the West Bank. In reality, there has long been a plan to create a Greater Israel and finally to dispose of the Palestinian population by a combination of violence, destruction, starvation and genocide. Critics are demonised as ‘anti Israel’ or ‘anti-Semitic’ which has served them well to silence or inhibit them.

In an interesting discussion on YouTube the point was made by one speaker that the word ‘context’ is banned by some media organisations. Guidance to New York Times journalists shows the extent of censorship when it comes to the coverage with a wide range of words they are discouraged from using.

Gaza has exposed multiple weaknesses in the world order. History will judge our leaders harshly for their supine approach to Israel and their pusillanimous support for the Palestinians.

The Vigil will be held on Saturday at 5pm in the Market Square in Salisbury and lasts 30 minutes. Please join us.

Piece edited after posting.

1

And the Vigils go on


November 2024

A video of the Vigil can be seen here.

The 52nd Vigil was held today in the Market Square in Salisbury and 30 attended. There was a kind of irony around today’s event as we looked out over the Market Square which was festooned with Christmas lights with the market in full swing. The Vigil is about peace in the region where Christianity began. With an estimated 44,000 dead in Gaza the notion of ‘peace and goodwill to all men’ seemed a long way off. Gaza and Palestine generally (however it is delineated) is precisely the area where Christianity was started yet here we are looking at a raging war and hatred seeming to be the defining spirit.

There is a temporary cessation of hostilities in Lebanon but few would confidently this to extend for any length of time.

Today (Sunday 1st December) we were in the Cathedral Cloisters from 10:00 until noon for a Write for Rights event so if you are in the area, please give us a call.

0

Fiftieth Vigil


Fiftieth Vigil held on Saturday 16 November

November 2024

[Video added, 17 November]

It is likely that holding a Vigil on Saturday in Salisbury Market Place was intended to be a short run affair. Most vigils are: people come together to show their support for a cause and it’s over. But on Saturday, we held our 50th Vigil in aid of peace in Gaza. Around 40 attended a number which has remained remarkably constant. New people came as well so it isn’t the same old faces week after week.

Part of the motivation is the continuing horror in Gaza and also, now, Lebanon with reports today of aid workers killed in a bombing. Over 43,000 are now dead in Gaza with 70% women and children the BBC reports.

Some of the attendees at the 50th Vigil.

Video of the Vigil

0

49th Vigil in Salisbury


November 2024

The 49th Vigil took place in Salisbury yesterday (9th November) and despite being on the cold side, 40 people attended for the half an hour. The Vigil attracted a lot of attention from passers by. There is a short video. Our previous post discussed the situation in Gaza and the recently published UN report. In the post we said that if a response from Israel came to hand we would amend the post as appropriate. Today (10th) there is no mention of the report.

0

Gaza: UN publishes grim report


UN publishes six month report on the conflict in Gaza

November 2024

The UN Human Rights chief said that there has to be a “due reckoning” for the horrific violations, possible atrocity crimes in Gaza. The report is critical of both Hamas and Israel for their actions although the bulk of the criticisms are directed at Israel and the IDF. The report covers the period 1 November 2023 to 30 April this year so does not include more recent events.

It notes that Palestinian armed groups had committed serious violations of international law on a wide scale, including attacks directed against civilians, killing and mistreatment of civilians, destruction of civilian objects, and taking of hostages, which amount to war crimes. These relate to the initial attack on 7 October 2023.

Many defenders of Israel’s actions have focused on the October attack as the start of the current conflict. The UN says that “it is also important to note the longstanding human rights impacts of 57 years of Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory in Gaza10 and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and a strangulating 17-year blockade and closure of Gaza”. Gaza was effectively an open air prison during these years with limited access to the outside world. There is no port or airport and the territory is surrounded by checkpoints.

There are arguments about the death toll with claims by Israel spokesmen and women that the statistics cannot be believed as they are produced by Hamas. The report is dated of course but the reported death toll is now around 43,000. Even in the first six months, the UN observes that thousands of bodies are unaccounted for. The quoted figures are likely to be very much an underestimate. Grim footage on Channel 4 news (8 November) shows attempts to collect body parts after a raid. The report analyses the death toll and an alarming graphic shows that the highest death toll is in the 5 – 9 year cohort with the next highest 10 – 14 (Paragraph 14).

A doctor working for MSF is quoted as saying “the scale of destruction in Gaza is unprecedented. The sheer amount of ordinance dropped dropped in such a small area is staggering. […] I have worked in many wars but Gaza has changed me. It’s not just another conflict zone; it’s a place where the very essence of humanity is under siege”. (MSF newsletter, November 2024). Byline Times reports that 70,000 tons of munitions have been dropped on Gaza, the rough equivalent of of the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined (November 2024 Eyeless in Gaza p41)

It’s a place where the very essence of humanity is under siege

An alarming claim is evidence of the use of white phosphorous on six occasions. This dreadful weapon causes immense harm and suffering. White phosphorus is an incendiary chemical that can cause particularly horrific and painful injuries, including extensive and life-threatening burns on human tissue and other debilitating health effects that can last a lifetime or lead to a slow and painful death. As a remnant of war, white phosphorus has a particularly severe environmental impact, leaking into water and sediments and risking further damage to Gaza’s water, food and the environment. So far as we are aware, this has not been reported on in the British media.

Further aspects comment on the killing of journalists in addition to preventing foreign journalists from entering the area. More journalists have died in this area than in any other. This means independent testimony and justification of both sides claims hard to verify.

Throughout the conflict, Israel has justified the bombing and destruction of huge swathes of Gaza by claiming that Hamas are using civilians, hospitals and schools as ‘human shields’. This justification has been repeatedly used by Israeli spokespeople. The UN says that evidence of this activity has not been provided. After over a year of the hostilities, one would have expected evidence of this oft repeated claim to have emerged.

The ‘Generals’ Plan’ is to clear all residents of northern Gaza and Haaretz reports that no Palestinians will be allowed to return, a confirmation of the plan. The question is whether the killings constitute genocide under article II (a) and (c) of the Genocide Convention.

We have attempted to provide a response to the UN’s report but none has so far appeared on outlets such as Haaretz and the Israel Foreign Affairs site [accessed 9 November]. This latter contains an item about the violence in Amsterdam but no reference to the UN report. The Ambassador to the UK was interviewed on the BBC World at One programme on 8 November and simply disputed the figures by both Hamas and the UN. [If a response to the UN report by Israel becomes available this post may be amended].

The report provides a grim account – made worse by subsequent events – of indiscriminate attacks on a wide range of infrastructure, the limitation of food and medical equipment allowed into the area, together with reductions of water and other essential services. Israel is able to continue the violence at a wholly disproportionate level with the aid of western countries which provide both diplomatic cover and the supply of arms. Sir Keir Starmer, then leader of the opposition, stated in an interview on LBC in October last year that ‘Israel had a right to cut power and water to the territory’ one of the more disgraceful comments by a political leader. In an interview with the Jewish Chronicle he also declared that criticisms of the Israeli government policy of apartheid was ‘no part of Labour party policy’. The UK continues to supply arms and intelligence from Cyprus. Declassified notes that 13 out of the 25 Labour cabinet receive funding from Israeli lobbyists. Israel’s banning of journalists from entering the area combined with feeble reporting has played a part in enabling this tragedy to continue.

0

Peace Vigil No 48


November 2024

The 48th Vigil for peace in the Middle East took place yesterday and with the change in clocks, we were back to candles. About 40 were in attendance, the strongest turnout for some time. Also, a stronger contingent of young people. It is amazing to note the numbers – which do fluctuate – remain high.

Events in the region show no sign of a let up. Bombing continues in both Gaza and Lebanon. Commentators are reporting that the “General’s Plan” of clearing north Gaza of Palestinians seems to be happening despite denials. Such footage as emerges is shocking. With Unwra to be banned from the area and no other agency with the scale or infrastructure able to take its place, the future looks truly grim. So much now depends on the US election in a few days time. If Trump wins and becomes president in the New Year, then it seems unlikely any pressure will be put on Netanyahu to compromise. The future if Kamala Harris succeeds is less predictable as she has had to moderate her views in the light of the Jewish vote in the US.

More media outlets beginning to refer to Israeli actions as ‘genocide’. It is worth reminding ourselves what genocide is and the UN definition is:

The Genocide Convention establishes in Article I that the crime of genocide may take place in the context of an armed conflict, international or non-international, but also in the context of a peaceful situation. The latter is less common but still possible. The same article establishes the obligation of the contracting parties to prevent and to punish the crime of genocide.

The popular understanding of what constitutes genocide tends to be broader than the content of the norm under international law. Article II of the Genocide Convention contains a narrow definition of the crime of genocide, which includes two main elements:

  1. A mental element: the “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such”; and
  2. A physical element, which includes the following five acts, enumerated exhaustively:
    • Killing members of the group
    • Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group
    • Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part
    • Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group
    • Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

As we have noted before, the issue of intent is important. A number of agencies and organisations have concluded that there is sufficient intent to conclude it is genocide.

The death toll in Gaza is around 43,000. Over 100,000 have been injured. Over 1,200 have been killed in Israel.

1

The Vigils continue


October 2024

Just when you think it cannot get worse, it does. The situation in Gaza, particularly in the northern enclave is dire. Bombing continues and plans to prevent food and other aid entering is underway. The Israeli government plans to ban the UN agency UNWRA. [Update: 29th October. This has been approved by the Knesset]. The Times newspaper in the UK claims that the agency is of value to Hamas and not ordinary Palestinians, a view similar to the Israeli government.

Further, there have been many allegations that UNWRA employees were engaged in the terror attack on 7 October 2023. Seven of the agency’s employees were dismissed after an investigation by the UN. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant alleges 30 of their employees were involved. He said in a Haaretz article that out of 13,000 employees, 1,468 were involved in terror organisations.

A representative of the National Unity Party spoke on BBC World at One today (28 October). They claimed that UNWRA was ‘rotten to the core’. The representative alleged that ‘most [of their staff] were Hamas activists’. Later she said that ‘70% were affiliated to Hamas’. The BBC interviewer tried gamely to interject saying that there was no evidence for these claims. It was admitted that a small number were involved as noted above. The interviewee was sure that the Knesset will vote in the measure today saying there was wide-spread support for it.

The problem as we have noted before is that there is a lack of independent verification for these various claims some of which are extremely wild. Claims that buildings are being used by terrorists are impossible to verify. Gaza is one of the most dangerous places for journalists to operate in. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, 131 have died and 69 arrested. They believe 5 have been murdered by Israeli forces. The question is, if Israel is so certain that buildings are used by Hamas and people are being used by them as human shields, why not allow independent verification?

Over the weekend, Israeli forces bombed various military sites in Iran raising the tensions still further.

Meanwhile, in Salisbury the vigils continue and over 35 were in attendance on Saturday. We will gather again on Saturday 2 November when we shall be back to candles. Around 42,000 have died in Gaza according to Le Monde.

4

The Middle East conflict


Current phase of the conflict a year old and little sign of an end

October 2024

There has been an exchange of letters in the Salisbury Journal concerning the conflict in the Middle East. Two letters have focused on the issue of Britain continuing to supply arms to Israel. Although a limited embargo is in place, we still for example supply components for the F35. These aircraft are being used to deadly effect in both Gaza and Lebanon. Over 42,000 are dead in Gaza and more than 2,000 in Lebanon.

The word ‘genocide’ has been used to describe Israel’s action in Gaza and South Africa has launched an action in the International Criminal Court. The allegations make grim reading. There are huge numbers of forced evacuations. A significant part of the population is being forcibly moved. The death toll, particularly among women and children, is rising. Medical aid is failing to reach the population. Tens of thousands are living in make-shift accommodation (the link provides a more detailed picture). In the past day or two, evidence has been put forward to the effect that the starvation of those remaining in north Gaza might be an act of deliberate policy. This is said to be the ‘Generals’ Plan’.

Are these actions genocidal? The problem for the ICJ will be the question of intent. Is the destruction however terrible, a justifiable answer to the atrocious actions of Hamas most particularly on October 7th last year? Is Israel justified in going after the terrorist organisations who continually lob salvos of rockets into their territory? Or is it way over the top and disproportionate? One of the problems the Israelis have made for themselves is not allowing foreign journalists or observers into the area. Last month, the offices of al Jazeera were closed down and done so aggressively. Israel justifies the destruction of buildings, including schools and hospitals. It claims these buildings are used by Hamas to fire rockets into Israel and to prepare for terrorist activities. It claims that the deaths are because Hamas are using the population as ‘human shields’. Very little evidence is provided to justify these claims. One might expect that a year into this conflict, we would see evidence of these alleged activities, evidence that outside observers could verify. Entire buildings have been demolished with massive 2000 pound ‘dumb’ bombs because it is alleged Hamas operatives are present within them.

One of the writers to the Salisbury Journal asserts that the Hamas Covenant of 1988 calls for the obliteration of Israel. A subsequent charter in 2017 distinguishes between Jews and Zionists confining its more violent actions towards the latter. He failed to mention the statement by the Israeli Minister Amichae Eliyahu suggesting a nuclear bomb be dropped on Gaza. Bezalel Smotrich suggested recently that it would be ‘justified and moral’ to starve the population of Gaza. Both have been disavowed. Israeli minister Ben Gvir has said that his right to move around the West bank is superior to freedom of movement for Palestinians. The point being that aggressive and bloodthirsty statements have been made by both parties.

It is largely forgotten that Netanyahu supported Hamas for a period of several years as a means to weaken the PLO. And this is close to the heart of the problem: the desire for a Palestinian state and Israel’s refusal to countenance this. The desire for a greater Israel and the violent actions by the Israelis (misleadingly called settlers) on the West bank are a key element in the conflict. Another misunderstanding is to claim that the violent actions of October 7th were the start of the current hostilities. The roots go back to 1948 nakba at least and elements can be traced back to the Balfour Agreement and further back still. October 7th is but the latest manifestation of long term hatreds.

What makes the conflict hard to unpick is that in effect there are two wars going on. Firstly, that between Israel and Palestine and the former’s resolute stance not to allow a two state solution. Secondly, Iran’s role. This has history going back to the Shah. They have supported Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen as proxies to attack Israel. But the seat of their aggression is again the Palestinian state and a belief that Israel has usurped Arab lands.

A key feature is the imbalance of power. Israel, with a largely unquestioning US support, is the regional superpower. It can project its power over the region. It can do this both militarily and with superior intelligence. This intelligence was seen with the spate of assassinations of Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon recently. None of the other states can match this. The US is sending manpower and more equipment this week. This makes it unwilling to compromise its position simply because it doesn’t need to. The world is waiting for Israel to respond to the rocket attacks from Iran of a few weeks ago. Israel has the capacity to inflict real damage on Iran’s military infrastructure. Iran by contrast, cannot do this. Despite the huge number of missiles hurled at Israel, the damage was minimal.

One major shift is the international attitude towards Israel. The world was shocked by the horrific attack on October 7th. The ensuing destruction of huge chunks of Gaza and the appalling death toll and squalor has seen sympathy for Israel drain away. Western media reporting was largely pro Israel arising partly from a fear of being labelled ‘antiSemitic’ for any criticisms. It has become more balanced and robust as time has gone by. Occasionally, commentators have mentioned the apartheid policy in the West bank. Amnesty, Human Rights Watch and B’Tselem have all published detailed reports on this and Israel has accused them of being anti-Israel. Reporting is hampered by a lack of access to the conflict zones. Claims and counter claims cannot be independently checked.

Conclusions

Should the UK stop sending arms to Israel? From the purely practical point of view, doing so will make little difference. We are a small supplier anyway and so ceasing supplies will not stop or help resolve the conflict. The political position is rather different. The UK is a member of the Security Council and still an influential force around the world. Other countries like Spain, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy have stopped their supplies. The moral case is rather more compelling. Are we content to see the destruction of a vast swathe of both Gaza and increasingly Lebanon? Are we content to see thousands of children die or receive terrible wounds. Can we stand by and accept the use of starvation as a weapon of war? The answer should be ‘no’. If genocide is pronounced, the UK will be obliged to stop all weapons sales.

The imbalance of power is a major factor in the continuation of this conflict and we are contributing to this. We also help Israel with overflights from Cyprus. Wars have to end sometime. Few have mentioned the economic cost of this conflict bearing mind Israel’s population is around 9.5 million 75% of whom are Jews. How long can they sustain this even allowing for massive US aid?

Yesterday’s killing of Yahya Sinwar (17 October), the leader of Hamas, has led the Americans and others to hope that this is some kind of ‘moment of justice’. They hope this is the opportunity for negotiations to begin. It is unlikely. Netanyahu is holding on in the hope that Donald Trump will win the election. Since the US is powerless to rein in Israel and Hamas and the other terrorist groups ignore them, the possibility of an outside force successfully engineering some kind of peace seems remote. Frequent efforts by Qatar came to nought.

An end

Wars end because exhaustion sets in. Another reason is the parties see no hope of gaining victory. Thirdly, the loss of treasure becomes too great to bear and a kind of armed truce takes place. The public may become tired and the initial euphoria turns to boredom or frustration. Unfortunately, in the case of this conflict, these factors which researchers* have identified in other conflicts, may not apply. As argued above, outside forces most particularly the USA, are the drivers here enabling Israel to continue for a long period. In many respects this is a proxy war both by USA and Iran. Israel’s losses are minimal and containable. But the greatest factor is the abiding hatred that seems to exist between the parties.

Being surrounded by enemies, some of whom are committed to its destruction, has a powerful effect on Israel. Nevertheless, it had agreed peace treaties with several countries such as Jordan and Egypt. The Abraham accords were also a positive step. It can be done. Trump’s ending of rapprochement with Iran was a backward step.

This stage of the conflict will come to some kind of an end, or should we say pause. The answer to the arms question is clear. Britain should suspend deliveries and use its diplomatic power to push for a two state solution. It would give Israel the security it needs and it would weaken the power and influence of the terrorist groups.

*MIT Research

0

The Vigils continue


Forty fourth Vigil held yesterday

October 2024

The 44th Salisbury peace Vigil continues with around 35 in attendance yesterday (5th October). It is almost a year since the terrible events on 7th October 2023 was the trigger for the current round of violence which seems to be getting worse by the day. Last week, saw a huge barrage of missiles from Iran directed towards Israel. Israel also stepped up its campaign with a ground invasion of Lebanon as well as bombing communities in the south and in Beirut itself. A million or more have been displaced and there have been around 1,500 deaths. Over 41,000 have been killed in Gaza.

After October 7th, there was a wave of international sympathy for Israel. The number killed and the manner of their deaths – some burned alive and others brutally and gleefully murdered – shocked world opinion. As time has gone by and the images of destruction wrought on Gaza, sympathy for Israel has turned to frustration. We have seen footage of building after building being demolished. People are being forced to move time and again. The scale of misery has been shocking. The seemingly indiscriminate nature of the bombing is also shocking. The ‘human shield’ argument has been much used and evidence for it has not been supplied.

Huge numbers of women and children have been killed. Many thousands have received life changing injuries including the loss of limbs. Entire families have been wiped out when blocks of flats have been destroyed. Aid deliveries have been restricted or delayed. The situation in Gaza is catastrophic.

The world looks on powerlessly

And the world has looked on powerlessly. Peace efforts have come to nought. Military aid continues largely unabated. The US, formerly the key player in the region, is looking as feeble as its president. It is a tragedy being played out in real time on our screens. Israel is accused of genocide and ignoring claims that its response is disproportionate.

It seems a long time since talk of a ‘new world order’ and international relations being settled by diplomacy. Israel is in danger of winning battles but ultimately losing the war. They may inflict crippling physical damage on Hamas and Hezbollah due to its huge superiority in military strength, but they cannot crush the ideology. Peace in the area can never be achieved until the Palestinian question is resolved probably through some kind of two state solution. The sad fact is that at the end of this campaign (and when that will be is unpredictable) fundamental issues will remain unresolved. The Palestinians will not have a state: Israel will continue to be surrounded by hostile neighbours.

What is alarming to note is that neither the UN nor USA has been able to secure a peace deal or any kind of enduring settlement. The EU is side lined.

We shall continue our vigil in Salisbury each Saturday at 5 o’clock in the market square. A small gesture perhaps …

0

Blog at WordPress.com.

Up ↑