Latest report on this politically charged problem

January 2024

Refugees and in particular, those arriving via small boats across the Channel, continue to cause considerable concern among the political classes and in the media. Overtaken in the past few days by the Post Office scandal, the matter will burst back into view next week when the Rwanda bill comes back to the Commons.

The total number of “small boats” arrivals in 2023 was 29,437 which was 36% lower than the figure for 2022. Bad weather in the latter part of the year has been a factor. Border Force expect the numbers to rise again in 2024. 20% of the arrivals were from Afghanistan.

On claims, of the 40,000 arrivals between July 2022 and May 2023, 90% applied for asylum. The PM’s claim to have removed the legacy of pre-2022 cases is questionable. The Office for Statistics Regulation is investigating.

The Times reports that Home Office officials can’t clear the rolling asylum backlog, because more than 50,000 claims are for people who are in the U.K. but barred from permanent settlement under new laws passed last year. The paper calls it “indefinite limbo.”

The statistics summary states that of “the 112,138 initial asylum decisions made between January and 28 December 2023, 35,119 were non-substantive decisions”. This includes withdrawals, and it seems reasonable to conclude that the vast majority of those 35,119 decisions were withdrawals given that the statistics to the end of September 2023 showed that 18,709 applications had been withdrawn since June 2022, most of these in 2023. It has been clear since last year that the government was using this as a tool to artificially reduce the number of cases.

This means that over 31% of ‘decisions’ that were made in 2023 were probably withdrawals. These are people who are still here and a large proportion of them are likely to be refugees. All that has been achieved by removing them from the asylum system is an increase in the likelihood of them being subject to exploitation, as people who are left outside the system are far more vulnerable to this.

A report in the i (paywall) shows what has been happening with the withdrawal of asylum claims,  Apparently those decision makers who met targets received gift vouchers and those who didn’t were subjected to performance management. In the meantime, those on the receiving end include people who do not speak English as well as those who were living in Home Office accommodation but have been accused of absconding from it.

In Parliament, the Safety of Rwanda Bill returns to its final debate stage next Tuesday and Wednesday (16th and 17th January), when there will be a large number of amendments, the majority of which will fail. The bill will be considered by a committee of the whole house, meaning all MPs can contribute to the committee stage debates which are normally limited to members of a bill committee, and these are the debates where Tory right-wingers will try to toughen the bill. For example, they may try to remove the clause in the bill allowing individuals to appeal against deportation, or to include provisions saying ministers should ignore European court of human rights injunctions stopping deportations flights. Tory centrists may also try to amend the bill to tighten the requirement on ministers to obey the European convention on human rights.

To end on some good news, the Dorset Echo has a report that some of the asylum seekers on the Bibby Stockholm have started working with local charities, particularly those concerned with the homeless. Being prevented from working has left them with lots of spare time and many of them have experience of charitable work in their former lives.

Andrew Hemming