Tag: immigration

Steady erosion of rights continues


Changes to the European Convention latest moves

May 2026

The endless discussion about who shall be the leader of the Labour Party has meant the latest moves to whittle away rights has received little attention. The guiding influence is immigration, a factor which is a kind of idée fixe in our politics and seems to have the capacity to win or lose elections for individuals or parties. It is claimed that the UK’s membership of the ECHR is preventing us dealing with the problem and in particular the wish to deport people back to their country or origin.

It is not unique to the UK hence the declaration last week giving European governments more power to deport immigrants. The 46 members have decided that ‘states had an undeniable sovereign right to control their borders‘. The Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, said ‘countries can [now] take action on illegal immigration‘. A questionable statement on many levels. The UK government wants to set up ‘hubs’ in foreign countries to process claims. It has been described as giving governments more ‘wiggle room’ to return migrants, even if there is a risk of mistreatment on their return. It is perhaps a measure of the moral collapse of our political parties that this agreement has generated almost no discussion and scarce mention in the media beyond the facts of the declaration.

Large sections of our community have no love for Europe and the Brexit beliefs still remain strong among many who also have believed at the time of the Referendum that the legal controls would be gone as well. The key proponent of Brexit and leader or the then UKIP party, Nigel Farage said last year ‘the Reform [his new party] will remove the UK from the European Convention and disapply International treaties‘. Reform did well in the recent local elections winning many seats and control of 34 councils. The loss on the other hand of so many Labour held seats has put the future of the prime minister under threat which is where we came in. .

The issues

There are many issues worth setting out:

– The concerns about immigration and the role of people not born in the UK is very one-sided. A number of politicians making most noise about immigrants are themselves – almost bizarrely – sons or daughters of … immigrants. Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, Shabana Mahmood, Danny Kruger and many more have parents not born in the UK.

– There is little recognition, in the desire to deport those already here, of the essential role immigrants and foreign nationals play in our society and economy. The health service for example could not operate at its current level nor could care and nursing homes for the elderly. London underground and bus services would be down to skeleton levels of activity. Much of our food would disappear off the shelves.

– No recognition of the fact that the rise in those coming by boat has been caused by government’s closing almost all means to claim asylum legally.

There are also issues of morality and rights which seem to get ignored or set aside.

– As Amnesty International has put it, it risks creating a ‘hierarchy of people‘. Those who enjoy rights under article 3 not to be subject to torture and those who do not. We are seemingly happy to trade and sell arms to countries which practice torture but we don’t want those fleeing it to come here.

– It shows a politics which is driven by populism and biased coverage. In all the press coverage about immigrants which fill the pages of the mostly right-wing media, there is next to no coverage of the large numbers emigrating. It creates the illusion of the country becoming full-up like pouring more and more water into a jug. GB News is at last to be investigated by Ofcom for not countering in an interview with Donald Trump claims that London had no-go areas for police and parts of the UK were governed by Sharia Law. The interviewer did not challenge the president on this nonsense and retransmitted the interview the following day.

– It attacks the most vulnerable and those least able to defend themselves.

– It panders to the belief that immigration and immigrants are somehow the cause of our economic malaise. Never mind weak investment, low productivity, lack of export growth, high interest rates, poor training and other policy failures, just ship out the immigrants and somehow Britain will be great again.

– It is just another step in the drip, drip, drip of steadily removing rights. The limits on the right to protest and increasing and often ill defined police powers. The various acts we have noted before e.g. Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act 2022 and the Public Order Act 2023, with more legislation in the pipe line, are increasingly been seen as attacks on free speech. There is an attempt to reduce the number of jury trials. Juries have irritated politicians by freeing some people despite directions to convict by some of our reactionary judges.

We need to be much more aware of this populist drive to diminish or weaken our rights. The claims that the Human Rights Act is a ‘criminal’s’ or ‘terrorist’s charter’ is based on the false notion that such people are using the act to escape justice. Autocratic regimes almost always base their rise to power by finding a minority to foist onto the blame for the ills of society and their own failure to govern effectively. It is not done dramatically but bit by bit. It is not even true to say ‘by stealth’ as it is done in plain sight.

Local MPs John Glen and Danny Kruger are revealed by They Work for You, generally (Glen) and consistently (Kruger) to vote against proposed equality and human rights legislation. We cannot therefore rely upon either of these two gentlemen to support threats to our rights by these actions.

Sources: HRW, Civicus, Guardian, Irish Times, GB News, Standard.

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Global Trends in Refugees and Asylum Seekers 2024


Refugees and asylum seekers still generate a lot of political heat

May 2026

The International Organisation for Migration has produced its latest World Migration Report, covering 2024/5.  It assesses the number of internally displaced people worldwide at 83 million, mostly due to environmental disaster, but about 20 million due to conflict.  In 2025 there were 94 million migrants in Europe (i.e. people living in a different country from their starting residence).  Of course, these figures include people who move for reasons of work or family, as well as refugees and asylum seekers.  

At the end of 2024, there were 36.9 million refugees globally, with 31 million under the UNHCR mandate, and 5.9 million refugees registered by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA).  A further 5.9 million other people in need of international protection – largely from Venezuela – were reported at the end of 2024.  The number of refugees under the UNHCR mandate has decreased slightly since 2023, when it stood at 31.6 million.

Increase in asylum claims

There were also approximately 8.4 million people seeking asylum status.  This is a 22 per cent increase from the end of 2023.  Despite partial reporting from the United States (only until mid-2024), the country still had – by far – the largest number of pending asylum claims (3.2 million) by end of 2024.  Other countries with large asylum applications included Egypt (631,100), Peru (540,000), Germany (348,900) and Canada (292,100).

In 2024 alone, 3.1 million new individual asylum applications were registered globally, with half of these received in only four countries: the United States (729,100), Egypt (433,900), Germany (229,800) and Canada (174,000). Nationals of the Sudan, Venezuela, Syria, Colombia and Afghanistan comprised most new individual asylum applications in 2024.  Obviously the situation will be somewhat different post-2024, particularly with regard to the USA.

At the end of 2024, children (that is, people under 18 years of age) made up around 41 per cent of refugees, people in a refugee-like situation and other people in need of international protection.

The (American) Migration Policy Institute have researched the question of anti-immigrant borders.  They reckon that in 1989 there were 12 border walls, and there are now 74.  The EU has increased its fenced length between 2014 and 2022 from 315km to 2,048 km.  One of the results of this sort of growth has been the number of drownings at the US/Mexico border, up by 3,200% between 2020 and 2023.  It was observed that tougher border policy has resulted in more seasonal migrants deciding to stay. Picture shows the wall between the US and Mexico.

UK situation

In the UK, the amount of legislation on immigration has now seen 6000 changes to the rules since 2010.  The latest areas of conflict concern the 1 in 1 out arrangements with France, the prevention of family reunion, and the replacement of hotel accommodation for asylum seekers by use of military establishments.  On the latter, the Institute for Public Policy Research has reported on the relations between claimants and the local community, and concludes that the main problem is the lack of transparency from government bodies, the absence of consultation and the lack of any obvious benefit from the newcomers’ arrival to the community.  The IPPR support a community-based long-term social housing project that would be of benefit to all groups.

The Refugee Council has a briefing on how to respond to the government consultation on asylum support and family returns, which runs out on 28th May.

Other unhappy organisations include the Law Society (the new independent appeals body is not satisfactory) and 150 children’s’ social and legal organisations, who believe the latest changes in immigration rules amount to an attack on children’s rights.

The government is withdrawing travel support for Afghans seeking to come to the UK, of which there are believed to be about 9,000.  They will now have to make their own way vie third countries.  The Home Secretary (pictured) has made a new agreement with France worth £662 million to provide more enforcement on the Channel coast beaches and better intelligence.  The Home office say that 480 people smugglers were arrested in 2025.  The Telegraph have quoted Ms Mahmood with saying that the crackdown on irregular migrants will give her room to allow more legitimate routes, but there is no detail on this as yet.

Reform’s claims

Other proposals in the air include Reform UK’s intention to deport migrants who have settled status if they arrived by non-legal means.  This would amount to some 400,000 (and they claim would save £14.3 billion through 2029-34 (when they would presumably be in power).  The (Reform) Lancashire County Council are withdrawing from the government’s resettlement scheme for accepted asylum seekers.

Nevertheless, the numbers of arrivals are down this year (by a third in the first quarter); the number of small boat arrivals in April 2025 was 11,000 against 7,000 this April.  The net inflow (of all types of immigration) over the last three years has gone from 900,000 in 2023 to 400,000 in 2024 to 200,000 in 2025; obviously much of this is due to restrictions of work and student visas, but it remains striking.  Next stats available 21st May

The Council of Europe are meeting on Friday in Moldova to discuss the issue of return hubs for refused asylum seekers.  Various European countries have made bilateral arrangements and up to 12 countries have been named as possible recipients.  The COE is the governing body for the European Convention of Human Rights, and possible changes to the ECHR will also be discussed.

The people behind Refugee Week (15th -21st June) are urging us to carry out a million acts of hope between 13th and 20th May.  Details at A Million Acts of Hope – Together With Refugees

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EU Strategies on Immigration: A Shift in Focus


Refugees and immigration have dropped down the political agenda. Irregular arrivals to EU fall

February 2026

With nearly all the political attention focused on the future of the Labour government and Sir Keir’s likely survival together with the steady stream of resignations from No. 10 (soon be time for the old joke ‘will the last person to leave remember …’ etc) attention has shifted from the near constant focus on immigration and in particular the boat crossings.

This month the focus has been on Europe, specifically the EU, who are developing a 5-year strategy prioritising deterrence, deportation and cooperation with non-EU countries.  In the words of Ursula von der Leyen, ‘Europe decides who comes to the EU’.  The view of Amnesty International is that the EU risks demonstrating complicity in rights violations by its proposed dependency on third countries.  So far deals have been made with Tunisia, Mauritania, Egypt and Morocco, none of which has blameless human rights records.  It is worth noting that irregular arrivals in the EU are down by 25% in 2025.  While many European countries are making conditions harder for irregular arrivals, Spain has decided to regularise the status of 500,000 undocumented migrants, emphasising their value to the country.

Deportation is also looming large in the UK.  Under threat of shutting down their visas, Angola, Namibia and the DRC have agreed to take back migrants claiming asylum in the UK.  Numbers of removals have been made, especially to Albania, Brazil and India. In 2024, 32% of enforced removals were asylum-related, 25% of voluntary removals.  The voluntary return numbers are not only people agreeing to go back home, but include anyone not going through the application process properly for whatever reason (the number of these who actually leave the country is unknown, of course).

The ‘One in, one out’ arrangement with France has so far resulted in 281 people going to France and 350 coming the other way.  The journal ‘Medical Justice’ says that a high proportion of those involved are survivors of trafficking and/or torture.

Reduced backlog

In Britain, the backlog of asylum cases is going down although, as notes before, the number of refusals has gone up (probably due to less care being taken in the interviewing) so that there is a bigger backlog of tribunal appeals (and fewer qualified staff to deal with them).  Barrister Colin Yeo has observed, “The only group to benefit from these long waiting times are those whose cases will ultimately fail; by the time that happens they will have been living here for years and it will be even harder for the Government to remove them than would otherwise have been the case”.  As of last September, 17,000 claimants had been waiting more than a year for a decision.

The UK Government has been publicising its plans for new ways of dealing with the immigrant issue.  Among them is a plan for ‘Named Community Sponsorship’ whereby local communities take the responsibility for inviting and incorporating migrants into the community.  This would create safe and legal routes into the UK, but leaves the onus on local private projects and may result in cherry picking. The Ukrainian process would be the template, but no timeline has been given.

The Home Office is also talking of trialling new ways of housing irregular migrants to replace hotels following Refugee Action’s suggestion that authority for asylum seekers’ accommodation should go to local councils, not the Home Office.  Local councils are resisting for fear of hostile public reaction.

The BBC have reported that there has been a surge in the number of refugee households that are now homeless, up from 3,520 in 2021/2 to 19,310  in 2024/5.  The increase in waiting times and shortening of time available to find accommodation post-assessment are blamed.

In the wider world, the Sudan conflict has had a profound effect on its neighbour countries with 14 million displaced persons. 1.2 million have moved to Chad, a country where 42% of the population live below the poverty line.

March for Refugees

Finally, for anyone eager for exercise, Refugee Action are organising a March for Refugees, sponsored walking 30, 60 or l00 miles through the month. Details at Sign up to March for Refugees.

AH

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Analysing the Shift in UK Migration Figures: What It Means


Net migration figures halved

December 2025

In a week where the focus has been on European discussions about the European Convention on Human Rights, actual migration has taken a back seat behind probable ever-tougher measures against those arriving here (the expected next French president Jordan Bardella is talking of letting UK Border Force push small boats back to France). At the same time, the National Audit Office has surveyed the workings of the existing UK asylum processing system and found it failing in a number of areas – not to mention its view that current government proposals will have unintended consequences.

On the legislative front, the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act has received the Royal Assent. During its passage through Parliament, some changes were made, including a partial lifting of the ban on anyone arriving “illegally” being allowed to stay and some reduction in the power to keep electronic data of applicants.

Net migration figure halved

From a UK point of view the most dramatic news has been the more than halving of the net migration figures year-on-year. This has mostly been achieved by reducing visas for prospective workers, but the ending of help for refugees from Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong has made a substantial difference. To June 2025, the yearly excess of immigration over emigration was 204,000 (down from 649,000).

The new Home Secretary has declared her policy, including making intending settlers take more stringent tests and wait 20 years to get residency. “Earned settlement” is to be subjected to consultation up until February, with new rules  expected around April. It has been observed that Mahmood’s ideas were tried in Australia in the 90s, with little success ; they were abandoned in 2023.

Some useful reports have come out in the last month. Probably the most interesting is from the Mixed Migration Centre of the Danish Refugee Council on people smugglers. Interviews with migrants and smugglers have revealed that stricter law enforcement has tended to fuel demand and increase fees. Only 6% of interviewed migrants said they had been recruited by smugglers, most taking the decision to move on their own or with family members. Alarmingly, almost half the smugglers admitted being in contact with border officers or police.

The PCS union and Together With Refugees have a new report entitled “Welcoming Growth,” looking at the economic consequences of a possible change to the current system. If the immigration rules were to:

  • Make all asylum claims proceed within 6 months
  • legal assistance at all stages
  • Give English language support from day 1
  • Give employment support from day one.

They calculate that a total contribution from refugees could amount to £260,000 per refugee over 12 ½ years, giving a net benefit to the public purse of £53,000 per person, after costs. 16 MPs have signed a motion welcoming the report.

Other notes:

Following the pause, the UK is now accepting asylum claims from Syrians again.

European organisations (notably Eurodac) are concerned that AI usage is resulting in misreadings of migrants’ personal data.

Thousands of Ukrainians have been ejected from Israel as the offer of asylum has ended. Their future is unclear.

Total number displaced in Sudan is now 13 million.

200,000 have fled homes in Eastern Congo amid ongoing fighting.

Finally, the Refugee Week people are moving ahead. They have updated what they call their Theory of Change (by which they mean their mission statement, essentially), which is a good summary of an arts-led campaign. They are offering to make available the film The Light That Remains (a documentary of life in Gaza under stress).

AH

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Controversial UK Immigration Policies: Public Reaction


Public reactions to immigration not straighforward

November 2025

The main news topic in the UK this month has been accommodation for asylum seekers, and the public reaction to the Government’s move to place claimants in military establishments following the furore over the use of hotels. Although such sites are expensive to run, the Home Office’s view is that ”quelling public disquiet was worth any extra cost.” Current plans include places for 900 claimants near Inverness, and 600 at Crowborough, East Sussex. Needless to say protests are already taking place. The Home Affairs Select Committee has expressed disapproval of the plans as unsuitable and requiring vast expenditure making the sites liveable. Figures for the numbers in hotel accommodation have fallen from 50,000 in June 20203 to 31,000 in June 2025.

A YouGov poll in 2022 revealed that the British public were split on whether or not immigration was good

for the country 29% for, 29% against. By 2025 the equivalent figures were 20% and 43%, and three quarters of responders thought immigration too high. The change in view has been put down to “imagined immigration”, whereby the population has acquired an incorrect understanding of the reality. For example, 47% of respondents believe that there is more illegal than legal immigration (small boat arrivals are actually 4% of the total).

The Government’s decision to end the family reunion process continues to cause concern. It has been suggested that this was an idea taken up from Denmark’s current hardline policy on immigration, and that the Home Secretary is minded to follow more Danish policies, such as allowing in only claimants who are known targets of their home government. The Home Secretary’s plan for a “major shake-up of the immigration and asylum system later this month” will probably take account of other aspects of the Danish system, possibly including its policy of “parallel societies” (removing people from integrated areas to encourage homogeneous neighbourhoods in a two-tier system: catch Iain Watson’s Radio 4 programme “Immigration: the Danish Way” for the story.) [limited time].

In Parliament, the Border Safety, Asylum and Immigration Bill is still in the Lords, where Lord Dubs has an amendment to counter the removal of family reunion by allowing the entry of children lost on the way to this country. This may pass.

Another controversial area of  policy has been Afghanistan, where people who worked for the previous government are being refused asylum as the Home Office claims they are not vulnerable to the Taliban. The organisation Asylos has a paper that has a different view, based on information from on the ground.

On the small boats front, there were 14 consecutive days in late October/early November when no boats crossed the Channel, since when a 1200 arrivals came in two days with better weather. The “one-in, one-out” arrangement with France continues in existence as a pilot scheme, but no assessment has yet been offered.

An interesting view of the prospects for migration comes from Britain in a Changing Europe’s James Bowes, who thinks that migration levels to the UK will fall dramatically. Most of this will be among legal migrants being denied visas, but lower numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will also have an effect; total net migration, he predicts, will fall to 70-170,000 in 2026 (the figure was 431,000 in 2024).

The journal Border Criminologies has noted that European governments have been using migrants’ mobile phone data to criminalise them rather than doing proper assessments. This story may get bigger.

There are numerous ongoing campaigns around. Next year’s Refugee Week (15th – 21st June) has as its theme “Courage”; Safe Passage are running a campaign against the family reunion policy under the title “Together Not Torn” “and Refugee Action are encouraging fundraising activities in the pre-Christmas period. Details can be found at https://www.refugee-action.org.uk/campaigns/

AH

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Importance of Human Rights: UK Support for the ECHR


November 2025

Nigel Farage’s proposal for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights was defeated on 29 October by 154 votes to 96, a majority of 58. The vote was largely symbolic: a ten-minute bill without government backing is often used simply to air an issue. The Liberal Democrats led the opposition to the bill, a number of Conservatives joined Reform UK in supporting it and many Labour backbenchers chose not to abstain but voted against it, fearing that were it to pass even symbolically, it would send a negative message to European allies.

The position of the Government remains that while it may pursue some changes to the interpretation of the Convention it would under no circumstances seek to abolish it.

75th  Anniversary 

A statement of support for the ECHR was signed by almost 300 organisations to mark the 75th anniversary of the Convention. Organised by Liberty, the statement highlighted the many ways the Convention has helped ordinary people from victims of sexual violence to LGBT+ service personnel, public interest journalists to mental health patients and victims of grave miscarriages of justice, as with the Hillsborough and Windrush cases.

It calls on the government to make the positive case for the UK’s human rights protections and claims that the way the Convention has been scapegoated in recent years has had devastating real world consequences. 

Meanwhile a survey for Amnesty by the widely respected agency Savanta concluded that more than 8 in 10 UK adults say that human rights protections are as important – or more important – today than when the ECHR was created after the Second World War. When asked which rights matter most to them, UK adults chose: the right to a fair trial (42%); the right to life (41%); the right to privacy, family life and respect for your home (40%).   

Support for staying in the ECHR is almost twice as high as support for leaving.  48% want the UK to remain part of the ECHR.  Only 26% want to leave.  

People believe rights should be universal, permanent, and protected from political interference:   87% agree that rights and laws must apply equally to everyone, 85% agree we need a legal safety net to hold the Government accountable in cases like the infected blood scandal and Grenfell and 78% agree rights should be permanent, not something the Government of the day can reduce. 

Respondents were shown a list of major UK scandals or institutional failings and asked which made them feel the importance of strong legal protections and accountability. The top five were: 

Grenfell Tower – 46%; Hillsborough disaster and cover up – 42%;   Infected blood scandal & the COVID inquiry – 37%; The murder of Sarah Everard – 36%;   Windrush scandal – 29%.   

ECHR and Immigration

In response to critics attributing the real problems of the UK’s immigration system to the ECHR, the Good Law Project set out some basic facts about the Convention, namely that it does not provide a right for people to enter or remain in a country of which they are not a national; that the Court rarely rules against the UK on immigration issues at all  – since 1980 only on 13 of the 29 cases concerning either deportation or extradition. And while the Human Rights Act of 1998 incorporating ECHR rights into UK law makes it unnecessary to go to Strasbourg, successful claims to stay in the UK are rare. Last year out of a total inward immigration of 948,000 only 3,790 cases related to the Human Rights Act were won at immigration tribunals.

Protect the Protest: Palestine Action and Judicial Review

Amnesty and Liberty will be making the case to lift the ban on the proscribed activist group Palestine Action in the Judicial Review scheduled for 25 – 27 November.

Defend Our Juries are urging the police not to bow to pressure from the Government but to allow the

peaceful protests organised throughout November at the continuing crisis in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel. They say that police are struggling to enforce the law in the face of peaceful protesters, many of them elderly. Some police forces are refusing outright to make arrests. International and national human rights groups, politicians and United Nations representatives have condemned both the ban and the subsequent attacks on civil liberties. Unions are declaring that they will not recognise the ban, with over 2,100 now arrested under ‘terror charges’ related to this peaceful sign-holding campaign.

Sacha Deshmukh, Amnesty’s Director, criticised the Home Secretary for statements “that create a chilling effect by dissuading people from exercising their fundamental right to peaceful protest. At any time, any interference with freedom of expression must be strictly necessary, proportionate and in full accordance with the law.” 

In a further incident of Transnational repression Sheffield Hallam University terminated a staff member’s project about Uyghur forced labour after Chinese security officers interrogated a staff member in Beijing and a Chinese company named in the report filed a defamation lawsuit in the UK. The university retracted the ban but only after  Professor Laura Murphy, specialising in human rights and modern slavery, began legal action against it for violating her academic freedom.

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Impact of ECHR on Asylum Seekers in 2025


Immigration and asylum seekers still making waves in UK.

October 2025

This month has been dominated by arguments around the European Convention on Human Rights and the rights of protesters to express their views. Neither of these are directly about refugees, but do have a bearing on the treatment of asylum seekers and dealing with the effects of conflicts. Boat crossings and asylum seekers do feature in the desire to leave the ECHR however.

The government has taken two more actions affecting migrants: making the “leave to remain” decision more difficult by extending the time taken to achieve it, adding more requirements, and blocking family reunions which would previously have been regarded as acceptable. Nando Sigona commented that this “allows policymakers to set shifting and arbitrary standards of belonging.”

One of the areas of complaint by the government has been the “last-minute” stay on deportation of unsuccessful claimants. It has now become clear that this is not gaming the system but the result of the short time available for appeals to be made against the Home Office’s “notice of intent” and the lack of emergency legal aid.

Still in the UK, the “one in, one out” agreement with France has started, but obviously the numbers involved are pretty small. Nevertheless, some commentators, such as Sunder Katwala of British Future take a positive view. At present, the scheme aims to return about 50 people a week; were it to be expanded tenfold, it would make returns “more likely than not”, and at 20 times, “it could operationalise a returns guarantee”. This would effectively destroy the business model of small-boats traffickers, says Katwala. “If you got to the point where there was a guarantee that the irregular route, where you paid a trafficker, wasn’t going to work, and there was a legal scheme to apply to as well, then you would see a three-quarters drop [in numbers arriving by boat].” Eventually, “you could actually eliminate it entirely”. British Future’s polling suggests an intake of 50,000 refugees a year would be supported by 48% of Britons, and opposed by just 18%.

Katwala notes that the US did actually get on top of immigration at the Mexican border in the final year of Joe Biden’s presidency, with a similar “routes and returns” approach by closing off illegal routes to immigration and creating legal ones. The numbers crossing the US border were far greater than those crossing the Channel – 2 million a year – and Biden’s approach reduced them by 77% between December 2023 and August 2024, an achievement that was barely reported at the time.

Also domestically, the government is still planning to phase out hotel accommodation for claimants and is

looking at redundant sites (mostly military) away from inhabited areas – the chief problem is that most of these require major repair work before being acceptable. Also noteworthy is the rumour that the imminent budget will take money away from spending in this area to reduce the deficit. Finally, back to the ECHR; the Supreme Court has taken to using the concept of “margin of appreciation” (in the ECHR but not the HRA) which is a bias towards accepting government cases rather than those of the lawyers – this will likely loom large.

Immigrant numbers falling in Europe

In Europe as a whole, the number of migrants has fallen sharply this year, according to Frontex. In 2025 so far, 112,000 have arrived in the continent, 21% down on last year. Similarly, the number of asylum claims is down by 23% to around 400,000 in the first half of the year. One of the main reasons for this is the EU’s policy of paying “transition countries” to cooperate by not allowing potential migrants through. These countries are chiefly Tunisia and Libya. There have been reports of Libyan security staff throwing people off boats into the sea (Libya is, of course, in the midst of civil war so is not likely to be particularly fastidious).

Frontex say that the number of arrivals by the western route through Algeria have, however, gone up. France and Spain have overtaken Germany as the most favoured final destination – the largest group of national arrivals have been from Venezuela, using Spain as a destination for language reasons. Ursula Van der Leyen has noted that only 20% of those with rejected claims have actually left Europe, and this will be on the agenda for the introduction next year of the new migration pact that has been said to “harden border procedures and envisages accelerated deportation.” Talks are continuing especially about the financial aspects. Interestingly, Hungary is being fined 1 million Euros a day for breeching its responsibilities towards asylum seekers – the government is unmoved.

Fergal Keane at the BBC has been touring the border areas and observed that in Greece, Poland and Latvia migrants were being physically pushed back across the border. The hazardous nature of the whole scenario is reflected in the fact that, over the last 10 years 32,000 migrants have died en route.

For the record, the number of arrivals on small boats this year so far is 34,000, up 36% on the same period last year. The weather is probably the main factor.

Compulsory reading!: The truth about the small-boats crisis – New Statesman.

AH

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Nigel Farage and immigration


The leader of the Reform party sets out his policy for handling immigrants and asylum seekers

August 2025

Nigel Farage made a speech yesterday (26th) setting out his ideas for handling the rising numbers of immigrants and asylum seekers many of whom arrived in boats across the Channel. Often termed ‘illegal’ immigrants although it is not illegal to come via this method if asylum is claimed. The whole issue of asylum seekers, boat crossings and hotels has become headline news in recent months and there have been protests outside some of them most notably in Epping. A case started today (26 August) concerning an Ethiopian man alleged to have sexually assaulted a 14 year old girl and this has added to the widespread sense of outrage.

Mr Farage in his speech promised to fix the problem in quick order if he became prime minister. His speech has made headlines because of his poll lead which if maintained, could conceivably mean he will be a prime minister after the next election. Some polls show a 15 point lead over Labour. He promised to launch ‘Operation Restoring Justice‘ which would involve leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (joining Russia and Belarus), repealing the Human Rights Act and disapplying the Refugee Convention. This is to enable the UK to detain every migrant arriving illegally. Countries will be persuaded by a mixture of ‘carrot and stick’ to take them back. These will include countries with poor human rights records such as Iran, Afghanistan and Sudan where the risk of torture or death is extremely likely. The detentions will include women and children he made clear. They ‘will never be allowed to stay’ he said.

Critical issues arose in the press conference and included the cost and where they will be housed while deportations are arranged. He was not able to answer these questions. By amending or abolishing the legislations and coming out of the ECHR etc, it will frustrate the ability of lawyers to prevent deportations largely because the majority do have asylum claims which are legitimate. Over the coming days, other criticisms will appear. For example, existing English law, upon which the ECHR was largely founded after the war, provides protections despite membership of the Convention. Will foreign countries be willing to accept the large numbers involved?

Human rights

The concern here though is the desire to rid us of the ECHR and to repeal the Human Rights Act. This has popped up as a policy in several Conservative manifestos but has never actually come to pass. Local MP Danny Kruger is an advocate of this policy. Mr Farage’s ideas gained favourable coverage in some of the newspapers with the Daily Mail saying in a headline ‘Finally a politician who gets it’ [26 August, accessed 27 August]. His indifference to those he proposes returning to countries where torture is routine was particularly noteworthy. It is interesting however, looking at the comments from readers many of which were not supportive of his comments despite the uncritical nature of the article. The extent to which Mr Farage and Reform are making the waves was clear from the responses from the two main parties. Kemi Badenoch complaining that Reform had stolen their policies and a No 10 statement merely saying that Labour could not rule out leaving the ECHR. There was strong condemnation from the Liberal Democrats.

Mr Farage couched his speech in terms of a public mood of ‘total despair and rising anger’. It is disappointing to note the feeble and pusillanimous nature of the responses in particular from No 10. Britain was in the lead in promoting a new world order after the war following the Atlantic Conference. The ECHR was based a lot on British principles of justice. We would join only Russia and Belarus if we left – neither country a ringing endorsement of rights and human dignity. It is also disappointing to see newspapers like the Daily Mail, the Daily Express and the Daily Telegraph (How Farage would kick 600,000 migrants out of Britain) seemingly to endorse Mr Farage with little sign of critical analysis. The Telegraph even had a story headed ‘We’re ready to work with Farage on migration says Taliban‘. The human rights situation in Afghanistan is abysmal.

How have we come to a situation where prejudice and a lack of critical reporting about the almost unworkable and hugely expensive proposals put forward by Reform are treated in this way? Instead of a robust response and clear statements of how to tackle problems, the two main parties seem to be falling over themselves to ape Reform policies. Partly it is because they confuse some newspaper reporting as reflective of the wider public’s feelings about immigration which are a lot less black and white. It may also be a reflection of years of negative articles by some newspapers about human rights – and by extension the Human Rights Act – claiming it is a criminal’s charter. It is perhaps not surprising that part of Mr Farage’s speech was about the HRA and he spoke of ‘removing the tools from our judiciary’ to prevent successful asylum claims.

A point he referred to several times was around ‘whose side are you on?’ This was in answer to a question from the BBC concerning the risk of returnees being tortured. His answer was ‘are you on the side of the safety of our women and children on our streets, or on the side of outdated treaties backed up by dubious courts’. Another quote was defending our borders and keeping our people safe. There is no evidence of women and children rendered unsafe on our streets disproportionately by immigrants (illegal or otherwise). The torture question was asked more than once.

The tone of the presentation was that immigrants are a threat to our society. That women and girls are unsafe despite the fact that many asylum seekers and others are in secured accommodation. By extension, many of our problems would be removed in short order if he became prime minister. The HRA and other laws and treaties are part of the problem he claims.

Reflections

Mr Farage, despite being a member of a party with only 4 MPs, is able to command a big audience from a speech and to be the lead item on many news channels.

He enjoys wide and largely uncritical support in chunks of the media.

Mr Farage himself (!) noted an interesting point, namely most of the press questions were about process. There was little of a moral or principled point of view.

A large part of his speech was based on dubious claims and unsubstantiated facts. There are problems surrounding immigration and he is correct that both parties have been ham-fisted in trying to deal with them and failing. But solutions are complex and the nation cannot simply step away from international treaties and agreements.

He does not discuss the reactions from other nations from his set of unilateral proposals to deport all illegal migrants. The question is – what if all countries decided to do the same? He spoke of return agreements and an expert from the Migration Observatory said in an interview that such agreements had a mixed history.

He speaks as though the UK is uniquely affected by these problems. The reality is that the scale of displaced people around the world is massive. There are 36.8m refugees worldwide and 123m displaced people according to UNHCR. The UK’s problems in comparison are miniscule. We are also a rich country better able than most to tackle the problem with capable leadership. Many of the millions are in, or adjacent to, countries which are among the world’s poorest. No part of his speech discussed what could be done to tackle the worldwide problem.

So whose side are we on to pose Mr Farage’s question? Not his.

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Tensions around asylum and immigration


The events around the hotel in Epping show deep tensions around asylum

August 2025

It is tempting to say that, in respect of immigration and asylum, little has changed over the past century or so. The arrival of thousands of Polish and Russian Jews fleeing from the pogroms at the end of the 19th Century, was the start of protests and antipathy towards what were then called ‘aliens’. The Aliens Act was passed in 1905 as a response to growing concerns. In subsequent eras there have been other outbreaks particularly with the arrival of Commonwealth citizens in the ’60s as Britain gave up its empire.

The current anger centred on the Bell Hotel in Epping which is one of many hotels used by the Home Office to house the immigrants awaiting assessment as to whether their asylum claims are valid or not. Recent tensions have been heightened by the increasing numbers of people arriving by boat over the English Channel. Large, angry crowds have assembled outside the hotel stimulated by claims that one of the inhabitants had molested a 14 year old British girl, an allegation he denies. In common with other disturbances – the Southport riots for example – social media has had a role to play in circulating rumours and speculation. The tensions have been an opportunity for politicians of various ilks to promote their views. Nigel Farage of Reform has made statements and Robert Jenrick of the Conservatives has also been voluble. He claimed in an article in the Daily Mail that he feared for the safety of his 3 daughters because of the ‘medieval attitude to women’ of men arriving by boat. The article refers to a ‘spate’ of crimes [alleged] to be committed by asylum seekers.

History

Historically, the fears follow a similar pattern. There is the fear of a loss of jobs by immigrants undercutting local labour. This is not altogether logical since those in these hotels are prohibited from working. Safety fears often surface such as those voiced by Jenrick. Taking up housing is another common reason and it will be galling for people spending years on a waiting list seeing immigrants being housed although the standard of accommodation is not always of the highest. In any event, this is about a hotel being used not houses occupied. A threat to our culture and our way of life is frequently expressed. We can see some of these themes in the Britain First website (described as a far right and fascist organisation by some). The pages contain words such as Britain being ‘overrun’ with mass immigration; the danger of ‘losing our country’ for ever; of our culture and heritage being ‘diluted’ and the risk of ‘erasing our identity’. Words like ‘hoards’ and ‘invasion’ often appear.

“We are not happy with these men in this hotel [Epping] because we fear for our children” A woman interviewed by the BBC

Common to the previous and historical outbreaks of this kind of angst concerning immigrants is a country experiencing stress. Added to that is the great mass of the population who do not feel they are being listened to and certainly not by politicians. Politicians have sometimes praised the contribution that immigrants have brought to our society – and rightly so – since large parts of our economy would grind to a halt without their input. But, they have not given that much attention to the social impacts and providing the resources to integrate people into society.

The problem is that people wishing to seek asylum in this country from places like Afghanistan, Sudan, Eritrea or Iran for example, have almost no legal means to do so. As routes have been closed off and entering on lorries now almost impossible, crossing the Channel is about the only means left. Once here, matters have been made worse by an inept Home Office. Considering how long this issue of immigration and asylum has been a political hot potato, it is astonishing that systems have not been geared up sufficiently to tackle it. Painfully slow assessments and inadequate accommodation have provided fuel to the fire of anger, hostility and a golden opportunity for populist politicians to jump in.

In a statement, Amnesty has said: Thousands of refugees are being refused asylum under flawed criteria that were introduced but not applied by the previous government – criteria this administration has irresponsibly chosen to maintain and enforce. This is a shocking abandonment of people fleeing war, torture and persecution and simply pushes backlogs and costs elsewhere – including into the appeals system.

In interviews, various politicians and others have argued that we should leave the European Convention to enable harsher measures to be introduced. We seem to have arrived at a place where fear and prejudice are defining forces, where media and social media amplify those prejudices, where politicians are too fearful to stand up against them and other politicians see them as an opportunity. Moral and humanitarian arguments are only occasionally heard. It is a great pity that the passions on show outside hotels and mosques could not be directed at some of the causes of the problem. Where is the anger at arms companies who profit and help foment the civil wars? Where are the protests outside City firms who handle the vast fortunes from those arms deals? Instead, anger is directed towards those who fled this unrest to seek sanctuary here.

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UK Refugee Crisis: Strategies to Address Small Boat Arrivals


Refugees and boat crossings still making political waves

July 2025

With the state visit of President Macron this week, the small boats are back in the headlines. As Macron and Starmer try to thrash out a deal to reduce the numbers arriving in the UK, the UK has been pressuring the French police to use new tactics against the irregular immigrants, allowing them to stop boats from up to 300 meters from the shoreline rather than only dealing with them on land. Presently they can only intervene if there is danger to life. The police are, in any event accused of puncturing inflatable boats as well as more heinously using tear gas and pepper spray on children.

An agreement between the UK and France on a “one in one out” basis, so that any arrival can be sent

back to France if replaced by a candidate deemed more worthy by dint of family connection, has been mooted, but the press conference will be on Thursday afternoon, so we will not know just yet. At all events, other EU nations are complaining about a possible deal which will make it more likely that arrivals in Europe will end up on their shores.

‘we have to make migration boring again’

Meanwhile, Amy Pope, the CEO of the (UN’s) International Organisation for Migration, has suggested any proposed changes will be unlikely to work, bearing in mind the level of commitment the migrants have already put in before reaching the English Channel. She is also in favour of de-politicising the debate. Her comment “We have to make migration boring again” is clearly  the most valuable contribution from anyone so far.

Arrivals

As noted last month, the number of arrivals in the UK on small boats continues to break records (20,000 by the end of June). This has been put down to good weather, smugglers’ new techniques and increasing conflicts around the world (the largest number of hopeful asylum seekers in Calais are from Sudan).

The Government is hoping to save up to £1 billion by speeding up backlog processing. However, the backlog is now 90,000 rather than 50,000 in 2024. In 2024, there were84,000 asylum claims – In the EU as a whole there were nearly a million – 997,000.

With much discussion on what legal routes immigrants can take, here is a summary of the current situation in the UK: there are presently 7 options.

  1. UNHCR can select people it thinks appropriate to send (the places cannot be applied for, and amount to only 1% of all refugees).
  2. UK Resettlement Scheme. The status of this is unclear; it includes community sponsorship and accounts for about 700 arrivals last year.
  3. Mandate Scheme. This is for people with relatives in the UK. 23 cases were reported in 2024.
  4. Family Reunions. Applies after refugee status has been agreed by the UK.

Mostly Syrians , Iranians and Eritreans. 5000 in quarter 1 2025.

  • Hong Kong. Numbers low now as most cases already settled.
  • Afghanistan. ACRS and ARAOP have now been closed, with virtually no explanation. “Further measures…[will be] announced later this year.” More Afghans have been arriving by boats than under these arrangements anyway.
  • Ukraine. Numbers also down now to about 4000 a month. Only 1698 asylum claims since 2022.

The Refugee Council have a new report New Roots, New Futures, arguing for a national integration strategy for refugees in the UK. They are particularly exercised by the need for new arrivals to have access to help in obtaining work and housing once they have been given right to remain.

The Green Party have put forward a plan for the Home Office to be split, with various options for the immigration departments.

By way of context, it should be noted that 73% of the world’s refugees are in Low/Middle Income countries, 67% of them are in countries neighbouring the one they are fleeing. Per head of population the countries with the highest number of refugees are Lebanon (1 in 8 of the population), Aruba and Chad.

The European Convention on Human Rights has become an issue again with questionable claims being made about possible unfair exploitation of loopholes. It should be stated that the Convention does not affect individual countries’ immigration policy, and that it is rare for claimants to a right of “family life” and such to win their case. The ECHR has ruled against the UK twice in the last two years, in neither case about immigration/deportation issues. They have generally prevented removals from the UK about once every 4.5 years since 1980. Leaving the Convention over this issue would seem rather unnecessary.

Andrew Hemming

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