Nigel Farage and immigration


The leader of the Reform party sets out his policy for handling immigrants and asylum seekers

August 2025

Nigel Farage made a speech yesterday (26th) setting out his ideas for handling the rising numbers of immigrants and asylum seekers many of whom arrived in boats across the Channel. Often termed ‘illegal’ immigrants although it is not illegal to come via this method if asylum is claimed. The whole issue of asylum seekers, boat crossings and hotels has become headline news in recent months and there have been protests outside some of them most notably in Epping. A case started today (26 August) concerning an Ethiopian man alleged to have sexually assaulted a 14 year old girl and this has added to the widespread sense of outrage.

Mr Farage in his speech promised to fix the problem in quick order if he became prime minister. His speech has made headlines because of his poll lead which if maintained, could conceivably mean he will be a prime minister after the next election. Some polls show a 15 point lead over Labour. He promised to launch ‘Operation Restoring Justice‘ which would involve leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (joining Russia and Belarus), repealing the Human Rights Act and disapplying the Refugee Convention. This is to enable the UK to detain every migrant arriving illegally. Countries will be persuaded by a mixture of ‘carrot and stick’ to take them back. These will include countries with poor human rights records such as Iran, Afghanistan and Sudan where the risk of torture or death is extremely likely. The detentions will include women and children he made clear. They ‘will never be allowed to stay’ he said.

Critical issues arose in the press conference and included the cost and where they will be housed while deportations are arranged. He was not able to answer these questions. By amending or abolishing the legislations and coming out of the ECHR etc, it will frustrate the ability of lawyers to prevent deportations largely because the majority do have asylum claims which are legitimate. Over the coming days, other criticisms will appear. For example, existing English law, upon which the ECHR was largely founded after the war, provides protections despite membership of the Convention. Will foreign countries be willing to accept the large numbers involved?

Human rights

The concern here though is the desire to rid us of the ECHR and to repeal the Human Rights Act. This has popped up as a policy in several Conservative manifestos but has never actually come to pass. Local MP Danny Kruger is an advocate of this policy. Mr Farage’s ideas gained favourable coverage in some of the newspapers with the Daily Mail saying in a headline ‘Finally a politician who gets it’ [26 August, accessed 27 August]. His indifference to those he proposes returning to countries where torture is routine was particularly noteworthy. It is interesting however, looking at the comments from readers many of which were not supportive of his comments despite the uncritical nature of the article. The extent to which Mr Farage and Reform are making the waves was clear from the responses from the two main parties. Kemi Badenoch complaining that Reform had stolen their policies and a No 10 statement merely saying that Labour could not rule out leaving the ECHR. There was strong condemnation from the Liberal Democrats.

Mr Farage couched his speech in terms of a public mood of ‘total despair and rising anger’. It is disappointing to note the feeble and pusillanimous nature of the responses in particular from No 10. Britain was in the lead in promoting a new world order after the war following the Atlantic Conference. The ECHR was based a lot on British principles of justice. We would join only Russia and Belarus if we left – neither country a ringing endorsement of rights and human dignity. It is also disappointing to see newspapers like the Daily Mail, the Daily Express and the Daily Telegraph (How Farage would kick 600,000 migrants out of Britain) seemingly to endorse Mr Farage with little sign of critical analysis. The Telegraph even had a story headed ‘We’re ready to work with Farage on migration says Taliban‘. The human rights situation in Afghanistan is abysmal.

How have we come to a situation where prejudice and a lack of critical reporting about the almost unworkable and hugely expensive proposals put forward by Reform are treated in this way? Instead of a robust response and clear statements of how to tackle problems, the two main parties seem to be falling over themselves to ape Reform policies. Partly it is because they confuse some newspaper reporting as reflective of the wider public’s feelings about immigration which are a lot less black and white. It may also be a reflection of years of negative articles by some newspapers about human rights – and by extension the Human Rights Act – claiming it is a criminal’s charter. It is perhaps not surprising that part of Mr Farage’s speech was about the HRA and he spoke of ‘removing the tools from our judiciary’ to prevent successful asylum claims.

A point he referred to several times was around ‘whose side are you on?’ This was in answer to a question from the BBC concerning the risk of returnees being tortured. His answer was ‘are you on the side of the safety of our women and children on our streets, or on the side of outdated treaties backed up by dubious courts’. Another quote was defending our borders and keeping our people safe. There is no evidence of women and children rendered unsafe on our streets disproportionately by immigrants (illegal or otherwise). The torture question was asked more than once.

The tone of the presentation was that immigrants are a threat to our society. That women and girls are unsafe despite the fact that many asylum seekers and others are in secured accommodation. By extension, many of our problems would be removed in short order if he became prime minister. The HRA and other laws and treaties are part of the problem he claims.

Reflections

Mr Farage, despite being a member of a party with only 4 MPs, is able to command a big audience from a speech and to be the lead item on many news channels.

He enjoys wide and largely uncritical support in chunks of the media.

Mr Farage himself (!) noted an interesting point, namely most of the press questions were about process. There was little of a moral or principled point of view.

A large part of his speech was based on dubious claims and unsubstantiated facts. There are problems surrounding immigration and he is correct that both parties have been ham-fisted in trying to deal with them and failing. But solutions are complex and the nation cannot simply step away from international treaties and agreements.

He does not discuss the reactions from other nations from his set of unilateral proposals to deport all illegal migrants. The question is – what if all countries decided to do the same? He spoke of return agreements and an expert from the Migration Observatory said in an interview that such agreements had a mixed history.

He speaks as though the UK is uniquely affected by these problems. The reality is that the scale of displaced people around the world is massive. There are 36.8m refugees worldwide and 123m displaced people according to UNHCR. The UK’s problems in comparison are miniscule. We are also a rich country better able than most to tackle the problem with capable leadership. Many of the millions are in, or adjacent to, countries which are among the world’s poorest. No part of his speech discussed what could be done to tackle the worldwide problem.

So whose side are we on to pose Mr Farage’s question? Not his.


Refugee report: March


Government attitudes to immigration still causing problems

March 2025

The Government’s Border Security Asylum and Immigration Bill is in its committee stage this week. Much interest has been shown by MPs in using the occasion to express opposition to the Home Office’s guidance on denying citizenship to “illegal” migrants, however long ago their arrival may have been. This guidance has been put forward as a gloss on the “good character requirement” for naturalisation, deeming those who arrive illegally via “dangerous journeys” to be ineligible. The SNP have put forward an amendment to obviate this ruling and the Home Affairs Select Committee have sought an explanation for the change in policy.

Brian Mathew, the Liberal Democrat MP for Melksham and Devizes, said asylum seekers should be given the ability and support to work “instead of leaving them in administrative limbo in hotels around the country costing the taxpayer millions”.

There has been concern amongst MPs also about the government’s decision to transfer some of the foreign aid budget to pay for increases in defence expenditure. This will obviously have a bearing on the amount of funding available for countries with refugee issues. According to the FT, presently it is believed that half the foreign aid budget will now  go on migrant hotel accommodation.

The Home Secretary has been visiting Northern France, the first Home Secretary to do so in recent years. Yvette Cooper is bringing £172 million to aid the French authorities against people smugglers. The National Crime Agency believes that they now have a better understanding of how the boats and engines arrive on the Channel coast, mainly from Germany. Germany has now made it a crime to facilitate illegal migration to the UK.

At the same time as immigration is being targeted, the Government is increasing its deportation levels. This post by Prof. Mary Bosworth is worth reading.

The small boats continue; this year so far the numbers are 40% down on last year, but better weather will probably change the ratio. 2024 data indicate claims were up 18% on 2023, and grant rates were down from about 67% to about 47%. A particular drop in acceptances has been felt by Afghans: from around 90% agreement to around 50% (with legal routes barely used now); it has been suggested that the Home Office considers the Taliban no threat to a wide range of society now.  The largest influx currently is from Sudan.

Other notes: The Guardian featured the immigration regime in Spain, where a less hostile attitude has brought economic results with arrivals able to work.The Home Office has been accused of failing to correctly assess the ages of child migrants by the Refugee and Migrant Children’s Consortium. And the UK is refusing to pay the £50 million compensation demanded by Rwanda for the collapsed migrant removal policy.

We are grateful to group member Andrew for producing this report.

UK Refugee Report: Political Issues and Policy Changes


This month’s refugee report on this vexed problem focuses on political issues in the UK

February 2025                                                        

This month the concentration will be on the continuing situation in the UK, with legislation going through and much pressure from certain political parties on the issue.

The Government’s Border Security Asylum and Immigration Bill passed its second reading this month. This Bill repeals the previous government’s Safety of Rwanda Act and some of its Illegal Migration Act. As presented, the Bill has received a cautious response from refugee and asylum organisations, most taking the view that it could have been worse.  The new offence of “supplying or handling ‘articles for use in immigration crime’” is expected to only be rarely used, despite the draconian punishment.  The other main provision concerns applying anti-terrorist legislation to smuggling gang leaders when caught.  Most organisations in the field point out that gang leaders rarely have assets in the UK and the National Crime Agency have said that most crime gangs are based in France, Belgium, Germany or Turkey, the success of this initiative is therefore to be doubted.

Blanket denial of citizenship

As of this week, the Home Office has been accused of a policy of denying citizenship to anyone who arrived by irregular means, however long ago, and despite being given leave to remain.  This would appear to be in breach of Article 34 of the Refugee Convention.  The issue is continuing.

Among the boat arrivals, the number of deaths recorded in transit was 78 in 2024, three times higher than the previous year. Pressure on the boat suppliers has led to more overcrowding, among other causes.

Within the European Union, irregular migration figures are down by 38% from 2023 to 2024, according to Frontex.  Migration routes from Tunisia, Libya and the Western Balkans have been made more difficult, but the policy of the government of Belarus in pushing migrants to the west has added to the numbers from that source.  Frontex are developing the use of AI on the borders.

The UK government has been publicising its deportation programme for unsuccessful claimants. Between 5 July 2024 and 31 January 2025, a total of 18,987 returns were recorded – an increase of 24%, the Home Office said.  Removals of foreign national offenders were up by 21% and illegal working raids – on such places as nail bars and car washes – are up by 38% compared with the same period 12 months previously.  Videos of people being put on planes* (for unknown destinations) have been put in the public arena.  Of the total returns since 5 July 2024, 2,925 were of foreign national offenders – an increase of 21%.

The backlog of asylum cases continues to be a concern.  In the last year, the proportion of asylum claims that have been accepted has dropped from 75% to 52% with a resulting increase in the number of appeals.  So, although the initial backlog built up over years has fallen, it is constantly being topped up. The last available figure, for September, was 97,000, but the Home Office say it is reducing.

Criticism of language used

A report by the Runnymede Trust has noted the language of the immigration debate, particularly the widespread use of the word “illegal”, although governments have tended to avoid the word as immigration is not illegal, though it may be “irregular”.  It blames media reporting for encouraging hostility towards migrants. In parliamentary debates and media reporting, negative terms like “illegal”, “flood” and “influx” are persistently used in association with migrants, posing them as a threat, dangerous and outsiders. The word “illegal” is in the top five most strongly associated words with ‘migrant’.

The pause in accepting Syrian refugees since the revolution is continuing despite urging from Damascus to process ongoing claims.

The Migration Advisory Committee has called for a change in the rules on working, asking for claimants to have the right to work after six months in the country.

The All-Party Parliamentary Group on Refugees issued a report this month on the working of the immigration system, and made some recommendations for improvement. Overall, the inquiry found that the current processes for safe and legal routes are overly complex, restrictive, and slow, leading to prolonged family separations and increased irregular migration. The report says UK governments since 2019 have adopted a “scattergun” approach to safe and legal routes.

“They have failed to effectively utilise the UK Resettlement Scheme (UKRS) and cooperate with the UNHCR to provide quotas for arrivals on this scheme. Instead, nationality specific schemes, each conferring differing entitlements, have been adopted, meaning that access to family reunion, immigration status and integration prospects are dependent on the scheme you arrived on which is unfair and inefficient.

“The refugee family reunion route was also highlighted as not operating effectively. Despite the number of visas issued increasing significantly in 2024, two-thirds of cases are failing to meet the Home Office’s own service standard of processing within 60 days. A backlog of family reunion cases has risen to at least 11,000 cases. The UK also operates one of the most restrictive refugee family reunion policies in Europe.“

The APPG makes three main recommendations. Firstly, it calls for improvements to refugee family reunion by processing cases within 60 days, allowing refugee children to sponsor their family members, and removing financial restrictions on UK-based sponsors. Secondly, it recommends restoring the UK Resettlement Scheme as the primary resettlement route and reaffirming the commitment to resettle 20,000 Afghans under the Afghan Citizens Resettlement Scheme. Thirdly, the report proposes introducing a pilot refugee visa scheme targeted at high grant rate countries, with a cap of 10,000 visas during the pilot period.

Finally, Amnesty are offering small grants for actions during Refugee Week in June details are available on the Local Groups email (but the final date is Monday!)

*the video is embedded in this LBC post.

AH

Refugee report


Channel crossings still a political problem

January 2025

While we continue to await the details of the government’s proposed Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill, the arrivals continue on small boats. The total for 2024 was 36,816 (compared to 29,000 in 2023, but lower than 2022). 69 migrants lost their lives in the Channel over the year. It is also noted that 270 claimants died while awaiting the results of their applications since 2015. The National Crime Agency is predicting large numbers of arrivals this year.

UK Government activity in the last month include a Home Office declaration that people smugglers will face immediate travel bans, social media blackouts and phone restrictions when caught. This morning (Thursday) the Foreign Secretary has joined in with a piece insisting that the FO is part of this push. How this will develop is unclear, but he speaks of using “our sharpest diplomatic weapons.”

There has also been a marked increase in the number of removals (voluntary or otherwise), amounting to 13,500 since the election, and the speeding up of the application process may have led to a loss of accuracy in the decision making. It is likely that talk of removing people “who have no right to be here” will increase.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian refugees, here under the visa scheme, are concerned that the 3 year visas will expire soon. They can be extended, but it is feared that the process may take so long that the right to remain will have gone before completion.

Charities the Refugee Council and Safe Passage have both produced reports in the last month. Safe Passage is primarily concerned with child refugees and is urging the government to provide safe routes and enable families to reunite without hindrance. The Refugee Council is campaigning for a “fair and humane asylum system” with a six-point plan including piloting a visa scheme for anyone seeking refuge in the UK and a hearing process that takes no account of the means by which applicants arrived here. It is not expected that the government will take these suggestions up.

As an international comparison, the number of boat arrivals on the Canary Islands in 2024 was 46,000. Spain has been following a comparatively liberal approach to immigration, but it is feared this may change.

As a tailpiece, an article on the experiences of those migrants who ended up on the now abandoned Bibby Stockholm can be read here.

AH

Refugee report – October


October 2024

The problem of boat crossings has largely dropped out of the news recently with the conflict in the Middle East soaking up media attention. The Conservative party’s leadership election is also a focus of interest particularly as the two remaining candidates have hard line opinions on immigration.

As the new government prepares to reveal its Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill (largely designed to replace the jettisoned Illegal Migration Act), it is worth looking at the current situation with the small boats. Under the IMA, all applications are deemed inadmissible. This has left us with a backlog of 33,000 claimants in limbo (mainly Afghans and Syrians). Before the IMA, 90% of claims had been accepted. This might not be the case in the future as the Home Secretary also wants enhanced return procedures.

The high levels of pending cases has been exacerbated by the lower levels of acceptance (down to about 60% of cases) with a resulting big increase in the number of appeals. In passing, the Independent notes that the oldest asylum claim at the Home Office was made nearly 17 years ago. Also, Switzerland has improved its processing, which used to take up to 4 years, but is now about 100 days, which may be a pointer for a way forward.

The charity Safe Passage sees signs of improvement  (e.g. now allowing children to join relatives who are not parents) but meanwhile the total number of arrivals this year is over 25,000 – slightly more than last year but fewer than 2022. The government is keen to align with European procedures on irregular arrivals, but within Europe itself cracks are showing. This week 17 EU countries pushed for more effective return procedures for rejected applicants under the new Asylum and Migration Pact. At present the actual return rate for those to be sent back is only around 30%. An amended return process is presently stuck in the European Parliament.

Following the Ukraine war, the percentage of the world’s refugees in Europe has increased to over 20%. New research this week suggests that the numbers of irregular migrants in Europe is not increasing substantially (still at around 1% of the population for most countries). The MIrreM project calculate that between 2.6 and 3.2 million irregular migrants are living in the 12 countries they researched, with 594,000 to 745,000 in the UK. Figures are not completely reliable owing to many arrivals staying under the radar.

While we concern ourselves with the relatively small number of refugees arriving on the south coast, it is worth looking at the worldwide situation. With war zones in the Middle East, Sudan and Myanmar, not to mention Ukraine, the number of displaced persons has mushroomed in the last year. Ten million Sudanese have been displaced, 2 million to another country, 4.5 million Yemenis are internally displaced, while in Gaza 90% of the population and in Lebanon 1 million out of 5 ½ have had to move under Israeli attack, in some cases many times. In the larger Palestine, plus Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, there are 58 recognised camps housing 1.5 million refugees (1 in 3 of all Palestinians, some dating back to 1948. The UN authorities in the area (UNRWA and UNIFIL) have pointed out that many of the displaced inhabitants may well choose to head for Europe, adding to the pressure on countries there.

In Myanmar, not only  those under threat from the military, but also many Rohingya have left the country, about 1.3 million, mostly to Bangladesh.

AH

Refugee report


September 2024

We are pleased to post the current month’s refugee report produced by group member Andrew.

Following the General Election, a new approach to the issue of immigration and asylum seeking has been promised. Straight away the new government declared the deportation of irregular immigrants to Rwanda would no longer be pursued. It is not known whether Rwanda will return the £270 million received in advance. The new Home Secretary will review the position by 1st October following complaints from asylum seekers rounded up in preparation for flights to Rwanda. It was also intimated that changes would be made to the Illegal Migration Act of 2023. On which topic, the House of Lords Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee has published a report noting that the Home Office has been trying to remove some barriers to the processing system under the Act, observing that it was “lamentable that the Home Office put forward an Act of Parliament that it has simply not been able to implement.”

The Prime Minister has announced the creation of a new Border Security Command designed to “smash the gangs” in some undisclosed fashion. The Command would be funded by money previously earmarked for the Rwanda plan and would be responsible for coordinating the activities of Immigration Enforcement, MI5, the Border Force and the National Crime Agency in tackling the gangs.

Latest statistics reveal that 22,000 migrants have arrived by boat this year so far, about the same as last year. The biggest numbers are from Afghanistan (despite some increase in the number of legal arrivals from there), Iran, Vietnam, Turkiye and Syria.

224,000 claimants are still in the system despite efforts to clear the backlog. 40% of them are still awaiting an initial decision (the total number is high because of lower levels of initial acceptance leading to a large number of appeals.)

These pieces have tended to concentrate on the people arriving in the UK on boats, but it is important to remember that the refugee crisis is worldwide. This is reflected in the sudden increase in numbers of refugees from the new hotspot of Sudan (mostly in the neighbouring parts of Africa but also 60% of the most recent boat arrivals here). This piece gives more information: The Sudan War has Been Dubbed the ‘Forgotten Crisis’ by the Same Media who Have ‘Forgotten to Report on it’ – Here’s Why – Byline Times.

Similarly, this recent article indicates that most displaced people stay close to their home area and don’t necessarily want to come to Europe, a fact that is often forgotten in the debate: Refuge in the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean: Spaces of containment or places of choice? | Journal of Refugee Studies | Oxford Academic (oup.com).

Also on a non-UK topic, the German government have instituted temporary controls on its borders to prevent the arrival of irregular migrants (and extremists) from other EU countries. This is contrary to the Schengen agreement on free movement within the Union.

BLOG

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Refugee report


Refugee report for June. Rwanda policy abandoned

July 2024

Following the General Election, a new approach to the issue of immigration and asylum seeking has been promised. Straight away the new government declared the policy to deport irregular immigrants to Rwanda would no longer be pursued. It is not known whether Rwanda will return the £270 million received in advance. The new Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, will review the position by 1st October following complaints from asylum seekers rounded up in preparation for flights to Rwanda. It was also intimated that changes would be made to the Illegal Migration Act of 2023.

Also quickly out of the blocks was a group of some 300 refugee and human rights organisations who jointly wrote to the prime minister with a proposal for a new approach to the issue. And the IPPR have produced a plan for the first 100 days under the new government.

The letter writers set out nine key demands including:

  • Restoring the right to seek asylum by repealing the Illegal Migration and Nationality and Borders Acts
  • Safe routes including visa routes enabling families to reunite.
  • Housing applicants in communities rather than camps.
  • Restoring the right to work within six months of arrival.

The IPPR report notes the new government’s plan to create a Border Security Command, essentially to deal with the people smugglers, but the Institute is looking for a more holistic approach to all aspects of boat crossings and border control. They also point out that the UK will be hosting the European Political Community meeting this month where, among other issues, the new Europe-wide Asylum and Migration Management Regulation will be on the agenda (the aim is to spread the application requirements more fairly.

The Institute also urges the government to expedite removing the backlog of applications (the new backlog, not the one the previous government claimed to have eliminated), offering various suggestions as to ways of doing this.

As a matter of record, the number of claimants crossing the Channel this year is, at over 13,000, a record for the equivalent period. The backlog is now at 120,000, and the number of cases gone to appeal is 27,000.

Andrew Hemming

Refugee report – May


Immigration, refugees and Rwanda still hot topics

May 2024

Immigration and asylum issues continue to exercise politicians and sections of the media and flights to Rwanda edge closer. We are grateful for this report produced by group member Andrew.

The Safety of Rwanda (Asylum and Immigration) Act finally became law on 25th April.  Since then, two pre-action letters have been sent (i.e. indicating intent to take the matter to court) from the FDA Union (on the grounds that civil servants cannot be expected to break international law) and Asylum Aid (claiming the legislation breaks with international law.)

It is reported that the Home Office is already rounding up refugees to send to Rwanda.  As a result many are going into missing or into hiding – or moving to Ireland.  It has also been said that countries under investigation as possible destinations include Armenia, Ivory Coast, Costa Rica and Botswana.  (Costa Rica has forcefully denied any such idea.)

A further aspect of the legislation is that Rwanda is a ‘monist’ country, meaning that it takes international law directly into domestic law.  This could mean that, if it is recognised that the Act breaks international law, it will, therefore, break Rwanda domestic law. 

The Oslo Peace Research Institute has surveyed the effect of warnings about migration rules as they affect third world countries.  Knowledge of the situation to be faced in Europe varies, but most communities are aware of messaging not to travel.  The effect on young adults has been minimal; indeed in some cases a better understanding of the bar on migrants has tended to raise expectations.

There has been a big increase this year in arrivals from Vietnam, higher even than among Afghans.  Vietnam is known as one of the worst countries for modern slavery, so trafficking appears to be rife.

The All-Party Parliamentary Groups on Poverty and Migration combined this month to produce a report on the effect of recent migration laws.  They considered that it was hard not to conclude that pushing claimants into poverty was a deliberate attempt at a deterrent.  They recommended several changes to the processing of immigrants.  The view that deterrence is not working is endorsed by this week’s report by some Calais-based charities, who note that heavy-handed action by French police to prevent the boats has encouraged the migrants to take to the boats more recklessly so as to avoid them, with dangerous consequences.  This police action is funded by the British Government.

The latest numbers of arrivals have been reduced by bad weather – an increase is expected.  1st May saw 711 arrive by boat.  The backlog of claimants awaiting processing was 83,000 in mid-April; the rate of processing has slowed in the last six months (the pre-2022 backlog, which the Prime Minister claimed had been cleared, still contains 2,300 people.)  The Refugee Council anticipate that, under the new laws, 94,000 are likely to be in permanent limbo by the end of the year.  Homelessness is also on the increase as asylum seekers are ejected from hotels after their claim is accepted.  Finally, the conditions in the Bibby Stockholm have been described as ‘prison-like’ with severe overcrowding.  An FOI request this week revealed that 1,871 children, who may be victims of modern slavery, have dropped off the register meant to support them up to the age of 18.

A depressing picture.

It was agreed the Group would monitor events for information on any proposed flights to Rwanda with a view to taking action, as previously, should Boscombe Down be the chosen airfield for departure.

The Salisbury group was established 50 years ago this year

Rwanda bill passes


Government succeeds in getting the Rwanda bill passed

April 2024

After what has seemed like a lifetime, the government has finally succeeded today, 23 April 2024, in getting its bill through both houses of parliament. The first flights are due to take off in 10 – 12 weeks that is in July. The airfield is as yet unknown but there is a possibility they will use Boscombe Down near Salisbury again as it is a military airfield surrounded by a high fence. There are some rumours to that effect.

Questions now are whether legal challenges will stand in the way. The government has declared Rwanda to be a safe country despite the evidence to the contrary. We do not know what the reaction of the European court will be. A robust challenge by them will renew calls by some politicians for us to depart from its jurisdiction.

This feels like a pivotal moment. Months have been spent on this problem and no doubt considerable civil service time has been spent on it as well. The cost has been considerable and the government has been reluctant to reveal the figures. An estimate is £370m with another £120m to come. There will be further sums for each asylum seeker despatched. There will be other administration and transport costs as well. The cost per person are difficult to estimate because it does depend on the numbers sent since some costs are fixed. As we move into what might be termed the ‘delivery’ phase of this project, issues of whether civil servants will be comfortable with the work they have to do and the response of the ECtHR are awaited.

The main purpose of the policy is to act as a deterrent. It is hoped – expected even – that news of the departures to Rwanda will deter those seeking to cross the Channel and seriously damage the business model of the smugglers. Whether this happens remains to be seen but with no end to wars and political instability in the world and the ease with which boats and outboard motors can be acquired from Turkey, suggests that this is a low risk, high reward activity unlikely to be deterred by a small percentage being sent to Rwanda.

Both local MPs, John Glen and Danny Kruger, voted for the bill.

Refugee report


April 2024

This month, the report starts with the EU. The Freedom United charity note that so far this year more than 200 people have died trying to leave Libya, many shot by the Libyan Coast Guard. The EU continues to help fund the LCG, and the Institute of Migration say that 600,000 people are trapped in Libya seeking to get to Europe. Needless to say, there are many allegations of breaking international law in this crisis.

Also beyond the UK, the latest news from Rwanda is that, following the lack of progress in deportations, 70% of the properties allocated to receive deportees have now been sold to local buyers. On this topic, the Rwanda Bill returns next week for more ping pong – it could yet go for the Royal Assent within a few weeks. Judges are being given “special training” to ensure speedy delivery of those to be deported to Rwanda, according to the Daily Express. The airline Air Tanker is reported to be in discussions with the government about providing the transport, although they withdrew from previous similar discussions. RwandAir has already declined for fear of reputational damage.

The Prime Minister has claimed that 24,000 irregular migrants were deported last year. Full Fact have checked this and argue that only about 25% were enforced returns, the rest being voluntary. The number of arrivals in small boats this year stands at 4,644 at the end of March – bad weather has reduced the number in the last few days, but the figure is still higher than last year.

Charities and law firms have sent a letter to the Home Secretary seeking a Ukraine-style visa scheme for Palestinians who have family in the UK. The Home Office has also refused to decide on whether to drop the need for biometric data for reuniting family

arrivals from Gaza, although obtaining such data is virtually impossible in the crisis; the Upper Tribunal ruled against the Home Office in two test cases.

In their annual report, the Office of the Immigration Services Commissioner note that the number of immigration advisers at the Home Office is growing, but not fast enough to keep up (and large numbers are leaving).

Finally, back to Europe, where the European Parliament has passed the Pact on Migration and Asylum today (Wednesday 10 April) against votes from the extreme right and extreme left. The 10 provisions of the pact cover issues like relocating from over-immigrated countries, financial allocation, fast-track routes and exchange of data.

A group of 22 NGOs has issued a statement arguing that “while the adoption … is likely to lead to a detrimental degradation of people’s access to protection in Europe, the new Union Resettlement Framework (URF) adopted alongside the Pact offers a glimmer of hope.

“The URF signals the EU’s political support for global resettlement efforts and has the potential to be a step towards advancing solidarity, capacity-building and responsibility sharing. It must now be operationalised effectively to ensure that more people reach safety and find long-term solutions,” the groups, which include the International Rescue Committee and Oxfam, said.

Andrew Hemming

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