Tag: refugees

EU Strategies on Immigration: A Shift in Focus


Refugees and immigration have dropped down the political agenda. Irregular arrivals to EU fall

February 2026

With nearly all the political attention focused on the future of the Labour government and Sir Keir’s likely survival together with the steady stream of resignations from No. 10 (soon be time for the old joke ‘will the last person to leave remember …’ etc) attention has shifted from the near constant focus on immigration and in particular the boat crossings.

This month the focus has been on Europe, specifically the EU, who are developing a 5-year strategy prioritising deterrence, deportation and cooperation with non-EU countries.  In the words of Ursula von der Leyen, ‘Europe decides who comes to the EU’.  The view of Amnesty International is that the EU risks demonstrating complicity in rights violations by its proposed dependency on third countries.  So far deals have been made with Tunisia, Mauritania, Egypt and Morocco, none of which has blameless human rights records.  It is worth noting that irregular arrivals in the EU are down by 25% in 2025.  While many European countries are making conditions harder for irregular arrivals, Spain has decided to regularise the status of 500,000 undocumented migrants, emphasising their value to the country.

Deportation is also looming large in the UK.  Under threat of shutting down their visas, Angola, Namibia and the DRC have agreed to take back migrants claiming asylum in the UK.  Numbers of removals have been made, especially to Albania, Brazil and India. In 2024, 32% of enforced removals were asylum-related, 25% of voluntary removals.  The voluntary return numbers are not only people agreeing to go back home, but include anyone not going through the application process properly for whatever reason (the number of these who actually leave the country is unknown, of course).

The ‘One in, one out’ arrangement with France has so far resulted in 281 people going to France and 350 coming the other way.  The journal ‘Medical Justice’ says that a high proportion of those involved are survivors of trafficking and/or torture.

Reduced backlog

In Britain, the backlog of asylum cases is going down although, as notes before, the number of refusals has gone up (probably due to less care being taken in the interviewing) so that there is a bigger backlog of tribunal appeals (and fewer qualified staff to deal with them).  Barrister Colin Yeo has observed, “The only group to benefit from these long waiting times are those whose cases will ultimately fail; by the time that happens they will have been living here for years and it will be even harder for the Government to remove them than would otherwise have been the case”.  As of last September, 17,000 claimants had been waiting more than a year for a decision.

The UK Government has been publicising its plans for new ways of dealing with the immigrant issue.  Among them is a plan for ‘Named Community Sponsorship’ whereby local communities take the responsibility for inviting and incorporating migrants into the community.  This would create safe and legal routes into the UK, but leaves the onus on local private projects and may result in cherry picking. The Ukrainian process would be the template, but no timeline has been given.

The Home Office is also talking of trialling new ways of housing irregular migrants to replace hotels following Refugee Action’s suggestion that authority for asylum seekers’ accommodation should go to local councils, not the Home Office.  Local councils are resisting for fear of hostile public reaction.

The BBC have reported that there has been a surge in the number of refugee households that are now homeless, up from 3,520 in 2021/2 to 19,310  in 2024/5.  The increase in waiting times and shortening of time available to find accommodation post-assessment are blamed.

In the wider world, the Sudan conflict has had a profound effect on its neighbour countries with 14 million displaced persons. 1.2 million have moved to Chad, a country where 42% of the population live below the poverty line.

March for Refugees

Finally, for anyone eager for exercise, Refugee Action are organising a March for Refugees, sponsored walking 30, 60 or l00 miles through the month. Details at Sign up to March for Refugees.

AH

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Asylum Seekers: UK Policy Changes and Impact in 2026


Some positive news on refugees and asylum seekers

January 2026

With the events in Venezuela, threats to occupy Greenland and continuing conflict in Ukraine, news about small boat arrivals and immigrants generally has dropped out of the news recently. Problems remain however.

Firstly, the final figure for irregular arrivals in the UK by small boats in 2025 was 41,000, the second-highest annual total ever.  The Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act is now in force, with new measures allowing Border Force to seize phones and SIM cards from irregular arrivals, ostensibly to help in tracking down smugglers.  Seizures of cash and assets of convicted smugglers are up 33% in year to September, compared to the previous year.

More positively, 5 local councils in England and Wales have declared an interest in a pilot scheme to use new build and refurbished council homes for asylum seekers as a way of removing them from hotels. The homes would be built with government money, leased to the Home Office, and then added to LA stock. The views of other prospective council home tenants have not yet been noted.

In the EU, heads of state met on 8 January to discuss its Common European System for Returns, instituted last March.  The Commission claims that only 20% of those designated for deportation actually are removed.  The effectiveness of the new system is not yet clear.  The UK government claims to have removed 50,000 claimants since it came into office in July 2024.

On the global level, Sherif A Wahab has calculated that the numbers of Displaced Persons is now double what it was in 2012; one-third of them are refugees (i.e. outside their country). Likewise the number of refugees who have been in exile for more than 5 years has doubled over the last decade; reasons for this include conflicts lasting longer; lack of strategy at local and national levels; refusals of permanent residency and other repressive policies. Of the world’s 32 million refugees only 204,000 returned home or settled permanently in 2022 (latest figures).

‘failure of imagination and ambition’

The head of the UNHCR, Filippo Grandi – on retiring last month – expressed his views on what he saw as a failure of imagination and ambition; “the international community should invest in asylum systems to make them faster, more efficient and better able to return people who do not need the help”  In his view, governmental responsibility does not impinge on sovereignty, but is an extension of it.

The link below to an article from The Guardian looks at the working of community sponsorship schemes; it implies that the government is still committed to legal routes to resettlement.  The Home Secretary said last November that she hoped to develop this model further.

“With control [over Britain’s borders] restored, we will open up new, capped routes for refugees for whom this country will be the first, safe haven they encounter.  We will make community sponsorship the norm, so we know that the pace and scale of change does not exceed what a local area is willing to accept,” she said.

‘It takes a town to raise a family’: the community sponsors supporting refugees in the UK | Communities | The Guardian

On the campaigning front, Safe Passage International have produced for the new year a Resolutions Generator, which, when pressed, will offer a small way in which one can help or understand better.

And here’s a petition against deportations from WeMoveEurope:

Say No to Mass Deportations in Europe | WeMove Europe

AH

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Talk by Peter Oborne in Salisbury on 21st about his new book ‘Complicit’

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Minutes and Newsletter, December


Minutes of our December meeting

December 2025

We are pleased to attach our minutes and newsletter for the December group meeting thanks to group member Lesley for compiling them. They include several reports some of which appear elsewhere on this site with links to other sites of interest.

Item 12 refers to upcoming events which if you are interested in joining us are a good opportunity to make contact.

December minutes (Word)Download

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Analysing the Shift in UK Migration Figures: What It Means


Net migration figures halved

December 2025

In a week where the focus has been on European discussions about the European Convention on Human Rights, actual migration has taken a back seat behind probable ever-tougher measures against those arriving here (the expected next French president Jordan Bardella is talking of letting UK Border Force push small boats back to France). At the same time, the National Audit Office has surveyed the workings of the existing UK asylum processing system and found it failing in a number of areas – not to mention its view that current government proposals will have unintended consequences.

On the legislative front, the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act has received the Royal Assent. During its passage through Parliament, some changes were made, including a partial lifting of the ban on anyone arriving “illegally” being allowed to stay and some reduction in the power to keep electronic data of applicants.

Net migration figure halved

From a UK point of view the most dramatic news has been the more than halving of the net migration figures year-on-year. This has mostly been achieved by reducing visas for prospective workers, but the ending of help for refugees from Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong has made a substantial difference. To June 2025, the yearly excess of immigration over emigration was 204,000 (down from 649,000).

The new Home Secretary has declared her policy, including making intending settlers take more stringent tests and wait 20 years to get residency. “Earned settlement” is to be subjected to consultation up until February, with new rules  expected around April. It has been observed that Mahmood’s ideas were tried in Australia in the 90s, with little success ; they were abandoned in 2023.

Some useful reports have come out in the last month. Probably the most interesting is from the Mixed Migration Centre of the Danish Refugee Council on people smugglers. Interviews with migrants and smugglers have revealed that stricter law enforcement has tended to fuel demand and increase fees. Only 6% of interviewed migrants said they had been recruited by smugglers, most taking the decision to move on their own or with family members. Alarmingly, almost half the smugglers admitted being in contact with border officers or police.

The PCS union and Together With Refugees have a new report entitled “Welcoming Growth,” looking at the economic consequences of a possible change to the current system. If the immigration rules were to:

  • Make all asylum claims proceed within 6 months
  • legal assistance at all stages
  • Give English language support from day 1
  • Give employment support from day one.

They calculate that a total contribution from refugees could amount to £260,000 per refugee over 12 ½ years, giving a net benefit to the public purse of £53,000 per person, after costs. 16 MPs have signed a motion welcoming the report.

Other notes:

Following the pause, the UK is now accepting asylum claims from Syrians again.

European organisations (notably Eurodac) are concerned that AI usage is resulting in misreadings of migrants’ personal data.

Thousands of Ukrainians have been ejected from Israel as the offer of asylum has ended. Their future is unclear.

Total number displaced in Sudan is now 13 million.

200,000 have fled homes in Eastern Congo amid ongoing fighting.

Finally, the Refugee Week people are moving ahead. They have updated what they call their Theory of Change (by which they mean their mission statement, essentially), which is a good summary of an arts-led campaign. They are offering to make available the film The Light That Remains (a documentary of life in Gaza under stress).

AH

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Controversial UK Immigration Policies: Public Reaction


Public reactions to immigration not straighforward

November 2025

The main news topic in the UK this month has been accommodation for asylum seekers, and the public reaction to the Government’s move to place claimants in military establishments following the furore over the use of hotels. Although such sites are expensive to run, the Home Office’s view is that ”quelling public disquiet was worth any extra cost.” Current plans include places for 900 claimants near Inverness, and 600 at Crowborough, East Sussex. Needless to say protests are already taking place. The Home Affairs Select Committee has expressed disapproval of the plans as unsuitable and requiring vast expenditure making the sites liveable. Figures for the numbers in hotel accommodation have fallen from 50,000 in June 20203 to 31,000 in June 2025.

A YouGov poll in 2022 revealed that the British public were split on whether or not immigration was good

for the country 29% for, 29% against. By 2025 the equivalent figures were 20% and 43%, and three quarters of responders thought immigration too high. The change in view has been put down to “imagined immigration”, whereby the population has acquired an incorrect understanding of the reality. For example, 47% of respondents believe that there is more illegal than legal immigration (small boat arrivals are actually 4% of the total).

The Government’s decision to end the family reunion process continues to cause concern. It has been suggested that this was an idea taken up from Denmark’s current hardline policy on immigration, and that the Home Secretary is minded to follow more Danish policies, such as allowing in only claimants who are known targets of their home government. The Home Secretary’s plan for a “major shake-up of the immigration and asylum system later this month” will probably take account of other aspects of the Danish system, possibly including its policy of “parallel societies” (removing people from integrated areas to encourage homogeneous neighbourhoods in a two-tier system: catch Iain Watson’s Radio 4 programme “Immigration: the Danish Way” for the story.) [limited time].

In Parliament, the Border Safety, Asylum and Immigration Bill is still in the Lords, where Lord Dubs has an amendment to counter the removal of family reunion by allowing the entry of children lost on the way to this country. This may pass.

Another controversial area of  policy has been Afghanistan, where people who worked for the previous government are being refused asylum as the Home Office claims they are not vulnerable to the Taliban. The organisation Asylos has a paper that has a different view, based on information from on the ground.

On the small boats front, there were 14 consecutive days in late October/early November when no boats crossed the Channel, since when a 1200 arrivals came in two days with better weather. The “one-in, one-out” arrangement with France continues in existence as a pilot scheme, but no assessment has yet been offered.

An interesting view of the prospects for migration comes from Britain in a Changing Europe’s James Bowes, who thinks that migration levels to the UK will fall dramatically. Most of this will be among legal migrants being denied visas, but lower numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will also have an effect; total net migration, he predicts, will fall to 70-170,000 in 2026 (the figure was 431,000 in 2024).

The journal Border Criminologies has noted that European governments have been using migrants’ mobile phone data to criminalise them rather than doing proper assessments. This story may get bigger.

There are numerous ongoing campaigns around. Next year’s Refugee Week (15th – 21st June) has as its theme “Courage”; Safe Passage are running a campaign against the family reunion policy under the title “Together Not Torn” “and Refugee Action are encouraging fundraising activities in the pre-Christmas period. Details can be found at https://www.refugee-action.org.uk/campaigns/

AH

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UK Refugee Crisis: Strategies to Address Small Boat Arrivals


Refugees and boat crossings still making political waves

July 2025

With the state visit of President Macron this week, the small boats are back in the headlines. As Macron and Starmer try to thrash out a deal to reduce the numbers arriving in the UK, the UK has been pressuring the French police to use new tactics against the irregular immigrants, allowing them to stop boats from up to 300 meters from the shoreline rather than only dealing with them on land. Presently they can only intervene if there is danger to life. The police are, in any event accused of puncturing inflatable boats as well as more heinously using tear gas and pepper spray on children.

An agreement between the UK and France on a “one in one out” basis, so that any arrival can be sent

back to France if replaced by a candidate deemed more worthy by dint of family connection, has been mooted, but the press conference will be on Thursday afternoon, so we will not know just yet. At all events, other EU nations are complaining about a possible deal which will make it more likely that arrivals in Europe will end up on their shores.

‘we have to make migration boring again’

Meanwhile, Amy Pope, the CEO of the (UN’s) International Organisation for Migration, has suggested any proposed changes will be unlikely to work, bearing in mind the level of commitment the migrants have already put in before reaching the English Channel. She is also in favour of de-politicising the debate. Her comment “We have to make migration boring again” is clearly  the most valuable contribution from anyone so far.

Arrivals

As noted last month, the number of arrivals in the UK on small boats continues to break records (20,000 by the end of June). This has been put down to good weather, smugglers’ new techniques and increasing conflicts around the world (the largest number of hopeful asylum seekers in Calais are from Sudan).

The Government is hoping to save up to £1 billion by speeding up backlog processing. However, the backlog is now 90,000 rather than 50,000 in 2024. In 2024, there were84,000 asylum claims – In the EU as a whole there were nearly a million – 997,000.

With much discussion on what legal routes immigrants can take, here is a summary of the current situation in the UK: there are presently 7 options.

  1. UNHCR can select people it thinks appropriate to send (the places cannot be applied for, and amount to only 1% of all refugees).
  2. UK Resettlement Scheme. The status of this is unclear; it includes community sponsorship and accounts for about 700 arrivals last year.
  3. Mandate Scheme. This is for people with relatives in the UK. 23 cases were reported in 2024.
  4. Family Reunions. Applies after refugee status has been agreed by the UK.

Mostly Syrians , Iranians and Eritreans. 5000 in quarter 1 2025.

  • Hong Kong. Numbers low now as most cases already settled.
  • Afghanistan. ACRS and ARAOP have now been closed, with virtually no explanation. “Further measures…[will be] announced later this year.” More Afghans have been arriving by boats than under these arrangements anyway.
  • Ukraine. Numbers also down now to about 4000 a month. Only 1698 asylum claims since 2022.

The Refugee Council have a new report New Roots, New Futures, arguing for a national integration strategy for refugees in the UK. They are particularly exercised by the need for new arrivals to have access to help in obtaining work and housing once they have been given right to remain.

The Green Party have put forward a plan for the Home Office to be split, with various options for the immigration departments.

By way of context, it should be noted that 73% of the world’s refugees are in Low/Middle Income countries, 67% of them are in countries neighbouring the one they are fleeing. Per head of population the countries with the highest number of refugees are Lebanon (1 in 8 of the population), Aruba and Chad.

The European Convention on Human Rights has become an issue again with questionable claims being made about possible unfair exploitation of loopholes. It should be stated that the Convention does not affect individual countries’ immigration policy, and that it is rare for claimants to a right of “family life” and such to win their case. The ECHR has ruled against the UK twice in the last two years, in neither case about immigration/deportation issues. They have generally prevented removals from the UK about once every 4.5 years since 1980. Leaving the Convention over this issue would seem rather unnecessary.

Andrew Hemming

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Political Waves: The Crisis of Refugee Boat Crossings in 2025


Refugees and the boat crossings still making political waves

June 2025

This month we are back to the small boats.  So far in 2025 some 15,000 arrivals have been recorded (1,100 on one day).  The Home Office say this is due to better weather and more people crammed in to boats.  In quarter 1 numbers were up by 20% on last year – mainly from the usual places – Eritrea, Afghanistan, Sudan.

The asylum backlog is down to 78,000, but with a lower grant rate (49% over the last year) the improvement may not be maintained.  The number of claimants jailed for “illegal arrival” has doubled in the last year.  Between 2022 and 2024, 556 arrivals were prosecuted under the Illegal Migration Act and 455 convicted (half of them were said to be piloting the boats, willingly or otherwise, and were therefore “facilitators”). In the latter half of last year, 53 people were arrested for people smuggling including many who happened to be steering the boats and many of them children.

Plans for removing arrivals to third countries for processing have made little progress ; Albania said no, North Macedonia & Kosovo have not been asked  but say they are open to discussion.

3,800 Afghans are currently awaiting homes (who came under the ARS scheme and were left unsupported). Also it has been claimed that an unnamed Special Forces officer blocked the entry of 1585 Afghans (it has been suggested this might be related to potential war crimes revelations).

Mary Bosworth (Oxford Professor of Criminology) has an interesting piece on the outsourced immigration detainee escorting system Mary Bosworth (@mfbosworth.bsky.social) — Bluesky

7000 Syrians are still in limbo awaiting a UK decision on processing their claims after a pause (the new regime is still being monitored, though presumably it will eventually be possible for many to return there).

The US has taken on “refugees” from South Africa, white residents supposedly under threat.  So far there have been 50,000 enquiries and 68 actual moves.

The Home Secretary has said she is working on a “fast-tracking” removal system for migrants from “safe” countries; these have not yet been named.

Of the 108,000 claimants for asylum status in the last year 16,000 were from holders of student visas. The government is likely to address this question soon.

Immigrant-focused group British Future have polled the public on attitudes to the word “immigrant”.  For 70% of respondents this conjured up people on small boats, while 46% thought of imported workers.  Of those who wanted to see a reduction in immigration, 49% prioritised the boats, very few mentioning worker or student arrivals.  The research also finds that 59% of the public, and 64% of 2024 Labour voters, agree that migrants living in the UK and paying taxes should be eligible to apply for citizenship after five years or less.

Polling organisation More in Common found that 51% thought a fall in immigration a good thing, 57% opining that the level was still too high.

One of the more interesting ideas for Refugee Week is that of Lancaster, where an exhibition, Escape to Safety, will give visitors an interactive view of the refugee experience.  More on that here

Finally, the Government’s Spending Review this week had a couple of points on the immigration/asylum seekers question.  Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the new Border Security Command will receive up to £280m more a year by the end of the spending-review period.  She also promises that all spending on hotels for asylum seekers waiting for their cases to be heard will stop by the end of this parliament.

Andrew Hemming

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Group’s reports


Palestine Action centre of the news


115th vigil took place following a momentous week in the courts February 2026 We discussed in a previous post the High Court’s decision that the government’s decision to ban Palestine Action was disproportionate. The ban on them has not been lifted as the government seemed determined to appeal and some experts say the Appeal Court…

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Minutes and Newsletter


February 2026 We attach the group’s minutes of its February meeting thanks to group member Lesley for the work in compiling them and for other members Fiona and Andrew for their contributions. We do not produce a newsletter so these minutes, although longer than normally the case with minutes, contain items of wider interest. Human…

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Palestine Action ban lifted: for now


High Court finds the ban on Palestine Action ‘disproportionate’ February 2026 The High Court has ruled that the ban on Palestine Action is disproportionate and banning it unlawful. The ban remains in place however as the government is minded to appeal the decision which will take place later this month. The decision is a major…

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Refugee report


Monthly report on this politically toxic topic

April 2025

The Government’s Border Security Asylum and Immigration Bill has now completed its report stage and will next go to the Lords.  While this is going on, an update on the numbers shows that the number of small boat arrivals this year so far has exceeded 6000, the highest yet.  Meanwhile the backlog of pending asylum cases has increased to 41,000 in December.

The PM has drawn together 40 nations for his Organised Immigration Crime summit last week.  A press release went without much comment, containing the usual statements about agreeing to enhance border security and dismantle the criminal networks.  One item which did emerge was an agreement with Serbia to exchange intelligence about what is now known as the Western Balkans route into Europe.

Following this event, some 136 organisations under the umbrella of Together with Refugees wrote to the Government, unhappy about the language used by the Prime Minister, which they described as “demonising.”  The PM had claimed: “There is little that strikes working people as more unfair than watching illegal migration drive down their wages, their terms and their conditions through illegal work in their community.”

New research from the European University has suggested that attitudes in Europe to irregular migration are more nuanced and varied than previously supposed.  This was from a survey which covered 20,000 people across Austria, Italy, Poland, Sweden, and the UK designed to understand their preferences on policies regarding access to healthcare, social welfare and labour protections, as well as the obtainment of regular legal status or “regularisation” for irregular migrants. The results challenge the idea that public attitudes toward irregular migrants’ rights are simply “for” or “against”.  Instead, they found that variations in policy design matter – and when policies include both migration controls and protections for migrants, public support often increases.

Unusually, there is some emphasis this month about campaigning.  Refugee Week (third week in June) is this year under the theme of Community as a Superpower with its customary emphasis on small actions. The group might consider an action (s) which might include:

Following our action against denying asylum seekers the right to work pushing for a change in the law. Refugee Action have a petition to sign here and, for more information, you can Read the coalition’s report here. We could arrange our own petition using the Lift the Ban coalition’s resources.

  • Pressing for Salisbury to be a City of Sanctuary (Winchester and Swindon are)
  • A letter writing workshop for supporting asylum seekers (maybe using the Salisbury Ecohub)
  • A vigil for small boat arrivals (as we did a few years ago)
  • Safe Passage want us to write to our MPs about government  policy and the new bill

(They have a standard email, but this could be enhanced).

Also Refugee Action are offering speakers for local groups – they admit they would mostly be online, but they can make visits.

Finally, a recommended read is Labour’s Immigration Policy by Daniel Trilling (who many will remember gave a talk to us some years ago) in the London Review of Books for March.

Andrew Hemming

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Refugee report


Events in Syria may see many return

December 2024

To begin with more positive news, the collapse of the regime in Syria has led to a rush among exiles to return to the country. Refugee camps just outside Syria have been particularly active. The down side is that, as a result, European governments (including the UK) have paused processing active asylum claims from Syrians. The UNHCR has calculated that the largest number of refugees from Syria leaving for other countries under Bashar al-Assad were Turkey 3.1 million, Lebanon 774,000, Germany 717,000 and Jordan 628,000.

Statistics released this month indicate that the net migration totals for the UK have dropped to 728,000 for y/e June 2024, but of course most of these are legal. Of the asylum claimants, the backlog of cases was at 97,200 in September, mostly appeals, as the percentage of claims granted by the Home Office has fallen over the last 12 months from 75% to 52%. At the same time, it has been said that only 52% of asylum decisions have met the Home Office’s internal quality assurance requirements. Since the Home Office has imposed a 2 hour limit on interviews with claimants in an attempt to speed thing up, this is perhaps not surprising.

Small boat arrivals have dropped substantially in the last month, due mainly to adverse weather. No boats arrived between the 17th and 30th November, and only 8 since, which means 400 arrivals in the last 3 weeks. Greece, the main point of entry to Europe for many, has received 57,000 arrivals this year so far.

A change in the law means that newly accepted asylum seekers in the UK will now have 56 days to “move on” from asylum accommodation, twice the previous limit. The Home Office is also planning to house asylum seekers in disused care homes and student accommodation. The National Audit Office has concluded that accommodation like military bases and barges do not represent value for money.

Britain has signed a deal with Iraq to tackle people smuggling gangs, particularly in the Kurdistan region. Deals with other front line countries may follow. Meanwhile the UK and Germany have pledged to share intelligence and expertise against the gangs. Germany will make it a specific offence to facilitate smuggling migrants to the UK; many of the rubber dinghies used are stored in Germany.

Andrew Hemming

Pic: NY Times

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