Category: immigration

Steady erosion of rights continues


Changes to the European Convention latest moves

May 2026

The endless discussion about who shall be the leader of the Labour Party has meant the latest moves to whittle away rights has received little attention. The guiding influence is immigration, a factor which is a kind of idée fixe in our politics and seems to have the capacity to win or lose elections for individuals or parties. It is claimed that the UK’s membership of the ECHR is preventing us dealing with the problem and in particular the wish to deport people back to their country or origin.

It is not unique to the UK hence the declaration last week giving European governments more power to deport immigrants. The 46 members have decided that ‘states had an undeniable sovereign right to control their borders‘. The Home Secretary, Yvette Cooper, said ‘countries can [now] take action on illegal immigration‘. A questionable statement on many levels. The UK government wants to set up ‘hubs’ in foreign countries to process claims. It has been described as giving governments more ‘wiggle room’ to return migrants, even if there is a risk of mistreatment on their return. It is perhaps a measure of the moral collapse of our political parties that this agreement has generated almost no discussion and scarce mention in the media beyond the facts of the declaration.

Large sections of our community have no love for Europe and the Brexit beliefs still remain strong among many who also have believed at the time of the Referendum that the legal controls would be gone as well. The key proponent of Brexit and leader or the then UKIP party, Nigel Farage said last year ‘the Reform [his new party] will remove the UK from the European Convention and disapply International treaties‘. Reform did well in the recent local elections winning many seats and control of 34 councils. The loss on the other hand of so many Labour held seats has put the future of the prime minister under threat which is where we came in. .

The issues

There are many issues worth setting out:

– The concerns about immigration and the role of people not born in the UK is very one-sided. A number of politicians making most noise about immigrants are themselves – almost bizarrely – sons or daughters of … immigrants. Priti Patel, Suella Braverman, Shabana Mahmood, Danny Kruger and many more have parents not born in the UK.

– There is little recognition, in the desire to deport those already here, of the essential role immigrants and foreign nationals play in our society and economy. The health service for example could not operate at its current level nor could care and nursing homes for the elderly. London underground and bus services would be down to skeleton levels of activity. Much of our food would disappear off the shelves.

– No recognition of the fact that the rise in those coming by boat has been caused by government’s closing almost all means to claim asylum legally.

There are also issues of morality and rights which seem to get ignored or set aside.

– As Amnesty International has put it, it risks creating a ‘hierarchy of people‘. Those who enjoy rights under article 3 not to be subject to torture and those who do not. We are seemingly happy to trade and sell arms to countries which practice torture but we don’t want those fleeing it to come here.

– It shows a politics which is driven by populism and biased coverage. In all the press coverage about immigrants which fill the pages of the mostly right-wing media, there is next to no coverage of the large numbers emigrating. It creates the illusion of the country becoming full-up like pouring more and more water into a jug. GB News is at last to be investigated by Ofcom for not countering in an interview with Donald Trump claims that London had no-go areas for police and parts of the UK were governed by Sharia Law. The interviewer did not challenge the president on this nonsense and retransmitted the interview the following day.

– It attacks the most vulnerable and those least able to defend themselves.

– It panders to the belief that immigration and immigrants are somehow the cause of our economic malaise. Never mind weak investment, low productivity, lack of export growth, high interest rates, poor training and other policy failures, just ship out the immigrants and somehow Britain will be great again.

– It is just another step in the drip, drip, drip of steadily removing rights. The limits on the right to protest and increasing and often ill defined police powers. The various acts we have noted before e.g. Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act 2022 and the Public Order Act 2023, with more legislation in the pipe line, are increasingly been seen as attacks on free speech. There is an attempt to reduce the number of jury trials. Juries have irritated politicians by freeing some people despite directions to convict by some of our reactionary judges.

We need to be much more aware of this populist drive to diminish or weaken our rights. The claims that the Human Rights Act is a ‘criminal’s’ or ‘terrorist’s charter’ is based on the false notion that such people are using the act to escape justice. Autocratic regimes almost always base their rise to power by finding a minority to foist onto the blame for the ills of society and their own failure to govern effectively. It is not done dramatically but bit by bit. It is not even true to say ‘by stealth’ as it is done in plain sight.

Local MPs John Glen and Danny Kruger are revealed by They Work for You, generally (Glen) and consistently (Kruger) to vote against proposed equality and human rights legislation. We cannot therefore rely upon either of these two gentlemen to support threats to our rights by these actions.

Sources: HRW, Civicus, Guardian, Irish Times, GB News, Standard.

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Minutes and newsletter


Contains a number of interesting items about human rights today

May 2026

We are pleased to attach our latest minutes and newsletter. We do not publish a newsletter as such but the minutes double as one. They contain pieces about immigration, the death penalty and the slowly deteriorating state of rights in the UK. Towards the end you will find details of forthcoming activities if you were interested in making contact.

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Global Refugee Crisis: Current Statistics and Trends


Round up of the refugee situation around the world

April 2026

With the focus on the Channel crossings and refugees in hotels, there is a danger of overlooking the massive refugee issues around the world which are on a scale far larger than we experience in the UK. There are 117 million people who have been displaced due to violence, conflict, persecution or violation of human rights. There are over 42 million refugees according to the UNHCR. These people are often in countries unable to afford to look after them. The Middle East conflict continues to increase the number of refugees, notably from Southern Lebanon.  It is reckoned that in 4 weeks a million Lebanese have been displaced, around one in 5 of the population.

A migration summit in Cairo to review trends prior to a global review to take place in New York has been overshadowed by the war; Egypt is home to a large number of refugees. The meeting, held in Egypt’s New Administrative Capital, brought together African ministers and stakeholders under the framework of the International Organization for Migration and the Global Compact for Migration, ahead of a global review forum in New York.

Small boats

Small boats continue to be in the news.  In the Mediterranean 180 migrants were lost in the last week, mostly coming

from Libya.  The UNHCR’s Institute of Migration estimate that nearly 1,000 lives have been lost in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the year.

The EU continues to struggle with new arrivals.  The border between Croatia (in EU) and Bosnia (outside) has seen particularly violent clashes.

Backlash in UK

In the UK the backlash against the Government’s tightening of regulations on refugee status, asylum seekers support and family reunions continues.  The Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood, is under attack from her backbenchers, who may have enough support to raise their protest in the Commons.  The House of Lords Secondary Legislation Scrutiny Committee has said of the Home Office that it ‘has not fully thought through the implications of the changes.’  Other bodies have pointed to crises in the system; Migrants Organise have noted a growing problem of access to justice for claimants, citing a collapse in legal aid provision and an increasing number of unrepresented claimants.  The use of AI by the Home Office in its assessments may be unlawful.

With the local elections in view, the Scottish Greens are proposing to allow asylum seekers the right to work, the first party in the UK to do so.

The 1 in 1 out arrangement with France is said to be on the point of ending; many migrants, after being returned to France, have taken to lorries, as they did in the pre-small boats era.

The Congo has joined those countries prepared to take on asylum seekers deported from the UK.  Details are not yet known.

In the United States the Supreme Court is likely to allow the administration to resume blocking asylum seekers physically from entering the country; much discussion has ensued on the meaning of ‘to arrive at/in’.  The process (‘metering’) was stopped by Biden.

On the campaigning front, the Refugee Week organisers are planning a week of ‘A Million Acts of Hope’ from 13th to 20th May.  Details to follow.

As a footnote, the first of the Afrikaner ‘refugees’ to be welcomed into the USA has now returned home.

AH

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Impact of Middle East Conflicts on Refugees in Turkey


War in Middle East and its effects

March 2026

Although war reporting generates a lot of commentary on the deaths of those caught up in the conflicts, the effects on refugees and those displaced receives much less attention. With the new war(s) in the Middle East, refugees are again in the news. So far, most displaced people have been moved within the countries of Iran and Lebanon, but Turkey in particular is being readied for an influx of refugees.  The European Union Agency for Asylum thinks here will possibly be large numbers of displaced persons as a result of the conflict, many of them heading for Turkey. The Institute for Migration estimates that as of now there are 19 million internally displaced in the region; the UNHCR have calculated in the last few days that 667,000 Lebanese have registered as displaced.

Home Secretary’s refugee plans

At home, the big story is the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood’s plan to reduce the length of protected stay of refugees from 5 years to half of that, during which time they will only have temporary refugee status.  This will be subject to review every 30 months for up to 20 years. During this period claimants may be deported if, in the opinion of the Home Office, their country of origin has become deemed “safe”.  A large number of Labour backbenchers are opposing the move, and the Law Society has observed that it might not comply with international law. Other objections have been that the plan will be costly (£872 million over a decade, according to the Refugee Council) and impractical. On 5th March, the Home Secretary revoked the legal duty to provide destitute asylum seekers with support and accommodation while their claims are processed, often for months or years.  The Home Office have been influenced by the so-called “Danish model”, which takes a hard line on immigration.

Among the latest statistics to be released, the Home Office received up to 23,000 referrals of alleged human trafficking in 2025 (the main sources were Eritrea and Vietnam).  The backlog of cases has reduced, but there has been an increase in the number of reconsiderations.  In 2025 about 100,000 claims for asylum were made in the UK. Of these, 41% were from small boat arrivals, 11% other irregular means, while 40% already had some form of leave before claiming.  The level of grants continues to drop, at 42% in 2025 (it used to be over 80%).  Syria has suffered particularly with levels of asylum grants down year-on-year from 88% to 9%.  Claims from Eritrea and Somalia are mostly accepted.

The ban on family reunions instigated last autumn is being challenged in the courts by Safe Passage International.  A High Court ruling is expected later this year.

Small boats in the Channel are now starting from further north, in Belgium, according to a BBC report.

The UN Missing Migrants Project, which records the number of deaths among attempted migrants globally, has designated three routes as particularly dangerous: from North Africa to the Central Mediterranean (esp. Libya); from Afghanistan to Iran (this was before the current conflict), and from West Africa to the Canaries (they note that migrants are coming from further south than they used to, with more risks attached).

Those politicians who seem keen on war and wanted the UK to adopt a more interventionist stance with the Israeli and US actions, seem not to be quite so aware of the knock-on effects. Many of those same politicians are to be heard railing against refugees. Wars generate refugees. A proportion end up at Calais.

AH

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EU Strategies on Immigration: A Shift in Focus


Refugees and immigration have dropped down the political agenda. Irregular arrivals to EU fall

February 2026

With nearly all the political attention focused on the future of the Labour government and Sir Keir’s likely survival together with the steady stream of resignations from No. 10 (soon be time for the old joke ‘will the last person to leave remember …’ etc) attention has shifted from the near constant focus on immigration and in particular the boat crossings.

This month the focus has been on Europe, specifically the EU, who are developing a 5-year strategy prioritising deterrence, deportation and cooperation with non-EU countries.  In the words of Ursula von der Leyen, ‘Europe decides who comes to the EU’.  The view of Amnesty International is that the EU risks demonstrating complicity in rights violations by its proposed dependency on third countries.  So far deals have been made with Tunisia, Mauritania, Egypt and Morocco, none of which has blameless human rights records.  It is worth noting that irregular arrivals in the EU are down by 25% in 2025.  While many European countries are making conditions harder for irregular arrivals, Spain has decided to regularise the status of 500,000 undocumented migrants, emphasising their value to the country.

Deportation is also looming large in the UK.  Under threat of shutting down their visas, Angola, Namibia and the DRC have agreed to take back migrants claiming asylum in the UK.  Numbers of removals have been made, especially to Albania, Brazil and India. In 2024, 32% of enforced removals were asylum-related, 25% of voluntary removals.  The voluntary return numbers are not only people agreeing to go back home, but include anyone not going through the application process properly for whatever reason (the number of these who actually leave the country is unknown, of course).

The ‘One in, one out’ arrangement with France has so far resulted in 281 people going to France and 350 coming the other way.  The journal ‘Medical Justice’ says that a high proportion of those involved are survivors of trafficking and/or torture.

Reduced backlog

In Britain, the backlog of asylum cases is going down although, as notes before, the number of refusals has gone up (probably due to less care being taken in the interviewing) so that there is a bigger backlog of tribunal appeals (and fewer qualified staff to deal with them).  Barrister Colin Yeo has observed, “The only group to benefit from these long waiting times are those whose cases will ultimately fail; by the time that happens they will have been living here for years and it will be even harder for the Government to remove them than would otherwise have been the case”.  As of last September, 17,000 claimants had been waiting more than a year for a decision.

The UK Government has been publicising its plans for new ways of dealing with the immigrant issue.  Among them is a plan for ‘Named Community Sponsorship’ whereby local communities take the responsibility for inviting and incorporating migrants into the community.  This would create safe and legal routes into the UK, but leaves the onus on local private projects and may result in cherry picking. The Ukrainian process would be the template, but no timeline has been given.

The Home Office is also talking of trialling new ways of housing irregular migrants to replace hotels following Refugee Action’s suggestion that authority for asylum seekers’ accommodation should go to local councils, not the Home Office.  Local councils are resisting for fear of hostile public reaction.

The BBC have reported that there has been a surge in the number of refugee households that are now homeless, up from 3,520 in 2021/2 to 19,310  in 2024/5.  The increase in waiting times and shortening of time available to find accommodation post-assessment are blamed.

In the wider world, the Sudan conflict has had a profound effect on its neighbour countries with 14 million displaced persons. 1.2 million have moved to Chad, a country where 42% of the population live below the poverty line.

March for Refugees

Finally, for anyone eager for exercise, Refugee Action are organising a March for Refugees, sponsored walking 30, 60 or l00 miles through the month. Details at Sign up to March for Refugees.

AH

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Analysing the Shift in UK Migration Figures: What It Means


Net migration figures halved

December 2025

In a week where the focus has been on European discussions about the European Convention on Human Rights, actual migration has taken a back seat behind probable ever-tougher measures against those arriving here (the expected next French president Jordan Bardella is talking of letting UK Border Force push small boats back to France). At the same time, the National Audit Office has surveyed the workings of the existing UK asylum processing system and found it failing in a number of areas – not to mention its view that current government proposals will have unintended consequences.

On the legislative front, the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act has received the Royal Assent. During its passage through Parliament, some changes were made, including a partial lifting of the ban on anyone arriving “illegally” being allowed to stay and some reduction in the power to keep electronic data of applicants.

Net migration figure halved

From a UK point of view the most dramatic news has been the more than halving of the net migration figures year-on-year. This has mostly been achieved by reducing visas for prospective workers, but the ending of help for refugees from Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong has made a substantial difference. To June 2025, the yearly excess of immigration over emigration was 204,000 (down from 649,000).

The new Home Secretary has declared her policy, including making intending settlers take more stringent tests and wait 20 years to get residency. “Earned settlement” is to be subjected to consultation up until February, with new rules  expected around April. It has been observed that Mahmood’s ideas were tried in Australia in the 90s, with little success ; they were abandoned in 2023.

Some useful reports have come out in the last month. Probably the most interesting is from the Mixed Migration Centre of the Danish Refugee Council on people smugglers. Interviews with migrants and smugglers have revealed that stricter law enforcement has tended to fuel demand and increase fees. Only 6% of interviewed migrants said they had been recruited by smugglers, most taking the decision to move on their own or with family members. Alarmingly, almost half the smugglers admitted being in contact with border officers or police.

The PCS union and Together With Refugees have a new report entitled “Welcoming Growth,” looking at the economic consequences of a possible change to the current system. If the immigration rules were to:

  • Make all asylum claims proceed within 6 months
  • legal assistance at all stages
  • Give English language support from day 1
  • Give employment support from day one.

They calculate that a total contribution from refugees could amount to £260,000 per refugee over 12 ½ years, giving a net benefit to the public purse of £53,000 per person, after costs. 16 MPs have signed a motion welcoming the report.

Other notes:

Following the pause, the UK is now accepting asylum claims from Syrians again.

European organisations (notably Eurodac) are concerned that AI usage is resulting in misreadings of migrants’ personal data.

Thousands of Ukrainians have been ejected from Israel as the offer of asylum has ended. Their future is unclear.

Total number displaced in Sudan is now 13 million.

200,000 have fled homes in Eastern Congo amid ongoing fighting.

Finally, the Refugee Week people are moving ahead. They have updated what they call their Theory of Change (by which they mean their mission statement, essentially), which is a good summary of an arts-led campaign. They are offering to make available the film The Light That Remains (a documentary of life in Gaza under stress).

AH

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Controversial UK Immigration Policies: Public Reaction


Public reactions to immigration not straighforward

November 2025

The main news topic in the UK this month has been accommodation for asylum seekers, and the public reaction to the Government’s move to place claimants in military establishments following the furore over the use of hotels. Although such sites are expensive to run, the Home Office’s view is that ”quelling public disquiet was worth any extra cost.” Current plans include places for 900 claimants near Inverness, and 600 at Crowborough, East Sussex. Needless to say protests are already taking place. The Home Affairs Select Committee has expressed disapproval of the plans as unsuitable and requiring vast expenditure making the sites liveable. Figures for the numbers in hotel accommodation have fallen from 50,000 in June 20203 to 31,000 in June 2025.

A YouGov poll in 2022 revealed that the British public were split on whether or not immigration was good

for the country 29% for, 29% against. By 2025 the equivalent figures were 20% and 43%, and three quarters of responders thought immigration too high. The change in view has been put down to “imagined immigration”, whereby the population has acquired an incorrect understanding of the reality. For example, 47% of respondents believe that there is more illegal than legal immigration (small boat arrivals are actually 4% of the total).

The Government’s decision to end the family reunion process continues to cause concern. It has been suggested that this was an idea taken up from Denmark’s current hardline policy on immigration, and that the Home Secretary is minded to follow more Danish policies, such as allowing in only claimants who are known targets of their home government. The Home Secretary’s plan for a “major shake-up of the immigration and asylum system later this month” will probably take account of other aspects of the Danish system, possibly including its policy of “parallel societies” (removing people from integrated areas to encourage homogeneous neighbourhoods in a two-tier system: catch Iain Watson’s Radio 4 programme “Immigration: the Danish Way” for the story.) [limited time].

In Parliament, the Border Safety, Asylum and Immigration Bill is still in the Lords, where Lord Dubs has an amendment to counter the removal of family reunion by allowing the entry of children lost on the way to this country. This may pass.

Another controversial area of  policy has been Afghanistan, where people who worked for the previous government are being refused asylum as the Home Office claims they are not vulnerable to the Taliban. The organisation Asylos has a paper that has a different view, based on information from on the ground.

On the small boats front, there were 14 consecutive days in late October/early November when no boats crossed the Channel, since when a 1200 arrivals came in two days with better weather. The “one-in, one-out” arrangement with France continues in existence as a pilot scheme, but no assessment has yet been offered.

An interesting view of the prospects for migration comes from Britain in a Changing Europe’s James Bowes, who thinks that migration levels to the UK will fall dramatically. Most of this will be among legal migrants being denied visas, but lower numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will also have an effect; total net migration, he predicts, will fall to 70-170,000 in 2026 (the figure was 431,000 in 2024).

The journal Border Criminologies has noted that European governments have been using migrants’ mobile phone data to criminalise them rather than doing proper assessments. This story may get bigger.

There are numerous ongoing campaigns around. Next year’s Refugee Week (15th – 21st June) has as its theme “Courage”; Safe Passage are running a campaign against the family reunion policy under the title “Together Not Torn” “and Refugee Action are encouraging fundraising activities in the pre-Christmas period. Details can be found at https://www.refugee-action.org.uk/campaigns/

AH

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Importance of Human Rights: UK Support for the ECHR


November 2025

Nigel Farage’s proposal for the UK to leave the European Convention on Human Rights was defeated on 29 October by 154 votes to 96, a majority of 58. The vote was largely symbolic: a ten-minute bill without government backing is often used simply to air an issue. The Liberal Democrats led the opposition to the bill, a number of Conservatives joined Reform UK in supporting it and many Labour backbenchers chose not to abstain but voted against it, fearing that were it to pass even symbolically, it would send a negative message to European allies.

The position of the Government remains that while it may pursue some changes to the interpretation of the Convention it would under no circumstances seek to abolish it.

75th  Anniversary 

A statement of support for the ECHR was signed by almost 300 organisations to mark the 75th anniversary of the Convention. Organised by Liberty, the statement highlighted the many ways the Convention has helped ordinary people from victims of sexual violence to LGBT+ service personnel, public interest journalists to mental health patients and victims of grave miscarriages of justice, as with the Hillsborough and Windrush cases.

It calls on the government to make the positive case for the UK’s human rights protections and claims that the way the Convention has been scapegoated in recent years has had devastating real world consequences. 

Meanwhile a survey for Amnesty by the widely respected agency Savanta concluded that more than 8 in 10 UK adults say that human rights protections are as important – or more important – today than when the ECHR was created after the Second World War. When asked which rights matter most to them, UK adults chose: the right to a fair trial (42%); the right to life (41%); the right to privacy, family life and respect for your home (40%).   

Support for staying in the ECHR is almost twice as high as support for leaving.  48% want the UK to remain part of the ECHR.  Only 26% want to leave.  

People believe rights should be universal, permanent, and protected from political interference:   87% agree that rights and laws must apply equally to everyone, 85% agree we need a legal safety net to hold the Government accountable in cases like the infected blood scandal and Grenfell and 78% agree rights should be permanent, not something the Government of the day can reduce. 

Respondents were shown a list of major UK scandals or institutional failings and asked which made them feel the importance of strong legal protections and accountability. The top five were: 

Grenfell Tower – 46%; Hillsborough disaster and cover up – 42%;   Infected blood scandal & the COVID inquiry – 37%; The murder of Sarah Everard – 36%;   Windrush scandal – 29%.   

ECHR and Immigration

In response to critics attributing the real problems of the UK’s immigration system to the ECHR, the Good Law Project set out some basic facts about the Convention, namely that it does not provide a right for people to enter or remain in a country of which they are not a national; that the Court rarely rules against the UK on immigration issues at all  – since 1980 only on 13 of the 29 cases concerning either deportation or extradition. And while the Human Rights Act of 1998 incorporating ECHR rights into UK law makes it unnecessary to go to Strasbourg, successful claims to stay in the UK are rare. Last year out of a total inward immigration of 948,000 only 3,790 cases related to the Human Rights Act were won at immigration tribunals.

Protect the Protest: Palestine Action and Judicial Review

Amnesty and Liberty will be making the case to lift the ban on the proscribed activist group Palestine Action in the Judicial Review scheduled for 25 – 27 November.

Defend Our Juries are urging the police not to bow to pressure from the Government but to allow the

peaceful protests organised throughout November at the continuing crisis in Gaza, the West Bank and Israel. They say that police are struggling to enforce the law in the face of peaceful protesters, many of them elderly. Some police forces are refusing outright to make arrests. International and national human rights groups, politicians and United Nations representatives have condemned both the ban and the subsequent attacks on civil liberties. Unions are declaring that they will not recognise the ban, with over 2,100 now arrested under ‘terror charges’ related to this peaceful sign-holding campaign.

Sacha Deshmukh, Amnesty’s Director, criticised the Home Secretary for statements “that create a chilling effect by dissuading people from exercising their fundamental right to peaceful protest. At any time, any interference with freedom of expression must be strictly necessary, proportionate and in full accordance with the law.” 

In a further incident of Transnational repression Sheffield Hallam University terminated a staff member’s project about Uyghur forced labour after Chinese security officers interrogated a staff member in Beijing and a Chinese company named in the report filed a defamation lawsuit in the UK. The university retracted the ban but only after  Professor Laura Murphy, specialising in human rights and modern slavery, began legal action against it for violating her academic freedom.

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Stories from the Small Boats Crisis


Notes from a talk at the Cheltenham Literature Festival

October 2025

This was the title of an extremely interesting talk given by three different speakers at the Festival on the the vexed subject of the small boats crossing the Channel. You would have to be living in a cave in the UK not to know that the boats crossing the Channel is causing huge political waves in the UK. Politicians are scrambling to come up with solutions to stop the crossings. The tabloid and right-wing newspapers keep up a seemingly never ending series of stories on the subject. Some communities are sufficiently angry to stand outside hotels where asylum seekers are housed. The nation as a whole seems very angry.

It was interesting therefore to go to a talk where there was a different take on the subject give by the three speakers. They were:

  • Nicola Kelly, an investigative journalist but had worked for the Home and Foreign offices before leaving
  • Horatio Clare an author and
  • Mir Rahami who at 13, had to flee Afghanistan.

There were a number of points made as you would expect. The ‘crisis’ as it has come to be called was presented as a crisis for us rather than a crisis for those on the boats. The sufferings of such people and the privations they have experienced has got lost in all the invective hurled at them by a number of politicians and journalists. The rights of the people arriving seem to have got lost.

If there were no wars there would probably be no refugees, or least fewer of them, it was claimed. We have noted in previous posts that the UK has been happy to sell arms and issue open licences for such arms with only weak controls on where they end up. There is a kind of irony in this activity which causes deep distress and mayhem in the countries involved while the same politicians complain about those escaping arriving on our shores.

The similarity to Brexit was discussed. Misinformation promoted by some of the same individuals making much noise over the crossings. A balanced view never seems to emerge either from them or those elements of the media which support them. Another aspect of Brexit was mentioned. It is often a complaint that we do not know who the immigrants are and that some may be people with criminal pasts. This is made worse because we no longer have access to the databases having left the EU. Brexit in other words has made the problem worse.

One interesting point – a point you seldom hear discussed – is that money and investment can go where it wishes. Goods can be traded internationally largely without let or hindrance. But people cannot. So the forces which cause economic imbalances are unfettered but those affected are not permitted to respond by leaving.

A major part of the government’s response is to ‘smash the gangs’. There is a lot of talk on this topic but always with the assumption that the gangs are in the Continent. What about the gangs operating here about which there seems to be silence? Might it be part of the UK being a victim in some way of the lawless gangs? That gangs which operate here don’t fit that narrative.

A major point made – a lament really – was the lack of politicians willing to speak out in favour of immigration and the benefits they bring. There are problems but there just seems to be a constant flow of one way talk about the ‘crisis’. It became self-fulfilling. The ex-Home Office speaker said the department were obsessed with the media and tried to come up with sensationalist material to show they were on top of the subject.

The presentation was well received.

(Image, BBC)

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Impact of ECHR on Asylum Seekers in 2025


Immigration and asylum seekers still making waves in UK.

October 2025

This month has been dominated by arguments around the European Convention on Human Rights and the rights of protesters to express their views. Neither of these are directly about refugees, but do have a bearing on the treatment of asylum seekers and dealing with the effects of conflicts. Boat crossings and asylum seekers do feature in the desire to leave the ECHR however.

The government has taken two more actions affecting migrants: making the “leave to remain” decision more difficult by extending the time taken to achieve it, adding more requirements, and blocking family reunions which would previously have been regarded as acceptable. Nando Sigona commented that this “allows policymakers to set shifting and arbitrary standards of belonging.”

One of the areas of complaint by the government has been the “last-minute” stay on deportation of unsuccessful claimants. It has now become clear that this is not gaming the system but the result of the short time available for appeals to be made against the Home Office’s “notice of intent” and the lack of emergency legal aid.

Still in the UK, the “one in, one out” agreement with France has started, but obviously the numbers involved are pretty small. Nevertheless, some commentators, such as Sunder Katwala of British Future take a positive view. At present, the scheme aims to return about 50 people a week; were it to be expanded tenfold, it would make returns “more likely than not”, and at 20 times, “it could operationalise a returns guarantee”. This would effectively destroy the business model of small-boats traffickers, says Katwala. “If you got to the point where there was a guarantee that the irregular route, where you paid a trafficker, wasn’t going to work, and there was a legal scheme to apply to as well, then you would see a three-quarters drop [in numbers arriving by boat].” Eventually, “you could actually eliminate it entirely”. British Future’s polling suggests an intake of 50,000 refugees a year would be supported by 48% of Britons, and opposed by just 18%.

Katwala notes that the US did actually get on top of immigration at the Mexican border in the final year of Joe Biden’s presidency, with a similar “routes and returns” approach by closing off illegal routes to immigration and creating legal ones. The numbers crossing the US border were far greater than those crossing the Channel – 2 million a year – and Biden’s approach reduced them by 77% between December 2023 and August 2024, an achievement that was barely reported at the time.

Also domestically, the government is still planning to phase out hotel accommodation for claimants and is

looking at redundant sites (mostly military) away from inhabited areas – the chief problem is that most of these require major repair work before being acceptable. Also noteworthy is the rumour that the imminent budget will take money away from spending in this area to reduce the deficit. Finally, back to the ECHR; the Supreme Court has taken to using the concept of “margin of appreciation” (in the ECHR but not the HRA) which is a bias towards accepting government cases rather than those of the lawyers – this will likely loom large.

Immigrant numbers falling in Europe

In Europe as a whole, the number of migrants has fallen sharply this year, according to Frontex. In 2025 so far, 112,000 have arrived in the continent, 21% down on last year. Similarly, the number of asylum claims is down by 23% to around 400,000 in the first half of the year. One of the main reasons for this is the EU’s policy of paying “transition countries” to cooperate by not allowing potential migrants through. These countries are chiefly Tunisia and Libya. There have been reports of Libyan security staff throwing people off boats into the sea (Libya is, of course, in the midst of civil war so is not likely to be particularly fastidious).

Frontex say that the number of arrivals by the western route through Algeria have, however, gone up. France and Spain have overtaken Germany as the most favoured final destination – the largest group of national arrivals have been from Venezuela, using Spain as a destination for language reasons. Ursula Van der Leyen has noted that only 20% of those with rejected claims have actually left Europe, and this will be on the agenda for the introduction next year of the new migration pact that has been said to “harden border procedures and envisages accelerated deportation.” Talks are continuing especially about the financial aspects. Interestingly, Hungary is being fined 1 million Euros a day for breeching its responsibilities towards asylum seekers – the government is unmoved.

Fergal Keane at the BBC has been touring the border areas and observed that in Greece, Poland and Latvia migrants were being physically pushed back across the border. The hazardous nature of the whole scenario is reflected in the fact that, over the last 10 years 32,000 migrants have died en route.

For the record, the number of arrivals on small boats this year so far is 34,000, up 36% on the same period last year. The weather is probably the main factor.

Compulsory reading!: The truth about the small-boats crisis – New Statesman.

AH

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