Anniversary supper


November 2024

Some members of the Amnesty group met last evening to celebrate the 50th anniversary of its foundation. We are, sad to say, the last surviving group in Wiltshire. As we have noted before, the founders in 1974 may have thought that human rights were now a part of the political agenda and that it might naturally wither on the vine especially when the Human Rights Act became law in the UK. That has not been the case and the need for vigilance is ever present.

The world situation is dire for millions in countries like Burma where the minorities such as the Rohingya are persecuted; China where the Uyghurs and Tibetans suffer monstrous persecution; sub Saharan Africa where wars rage and millions flee or are driven from their homes; Syria – although quiet at present – has been a country where large numbers have been killed or driven from their homes and currently, the Middle East where a fearsome death toll and suggestions of ethnic cleansing are taking place in Gaza.

In the UK, hostility to the HRA is ever present and was a fixture of Conservative party policy for some years. Only yesterday we reported on a Daily Mail article which gave its readers only partial details of a report critical of the HRA produced by a secretive think tank. Several of the tabloids and the right wing press generally have maintained a steady stream of anti human rights stories suggesting the act is a get out of gaol card for criminals, terrorists and assorted ne’er-do-wells.

The They Work for You website reveals that both local MPs – John Glen and Danny Kruger – generally vote against human rights proposals. Kruger has written often on this subject and we have reviewed some of his activities on this site. The last Conservative government passed several pieces of legislation to limit protests and giving more powers to the police to arrest people taking part in protests. Indeed, the issue of arrests of journalists was part of the last Salisbury Democracy Café debate on Saturday 9th.

Both internationally and in the UK, the continuing need for a spotlight on human rights issues is vital and the group hopes to carry on with this work in the years to come. We always welcome new members and the best thing is to follow this site or Facebook (salisburyai) to see what we are doing and come along and make yourself known. Oh, and we had a very enjoyable meal!

Pic: Jane Miller

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Report critical of human rights


Report published by Policy Exchange claiming the HRA has curtailed the rights of Parliament

November 2024

Slightly amended 13 November

An article appeared in the Daily Mail on 11 November under the headline ‘Rights Act ‘curtailed power of Parliament ”. It said ’eminent lawyers have compiled a dossier of 25 cases where the Human Rights Act was applied and have shown how its use removed power from Parliament’. It continued that ‘power once held in Westminster is increasingly being transferred to the European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg’ and quotes the example of the government’s wish to deport ‘illegal’ immigrants to Rwanda which was frustrated at the last minute by the Court.

The Mail did not tell its readers however, who produced this report and a reference does not appear in the online version either. It was in fact written by the Policy Exchange and published on 11th. The organisation promotes itself ‘as an educational charity [and] our mission is to develop and promote new policy ideas which deliver better public services, a stronger society and a more dynamic economy‘.

The problem is that the Exchange is an opaque organisation and does not reveal who funds it, does not reveal funding on its website nor tells us the amounts given by funders. Open Democracy is very critical about the secretiveness of this organisation, its ‘dark money’ and its influence in government both with the Conservatives and now, it alleges, Labour.

It was revealed by Rishi Sunak who admitted that Policy Exchange received funding from US oil giant ExxonMobil who helped the government write its draconian anti-protest laws. It serves as confirmation by the then prime minister of Open Democracy’s revelations that last year’s controversial policing bill, which became the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts (PCSC) Act, may have originated in a briefing from Policy Exchange. The organisation has form therefore in being hostile to rights and protests. It is curious that the Daily Mail, in the vanguard in promoting parliamentary sovereignty and a powerful force in the Brexit debate, failed to mention the influence of American money believed to be behind several of this and other think tanks. Quite where is this ‘sovereignty’ they are keen on?

The limited information provided to Daily Mail readers meant they are unaware of who funds these reports or the motives of the assumed funders (if indeed ExxonMobil are one of the funders). The report’s arguments are thin and present the reader with the notion that human rights were amply protected by our common law and there is no need for this ‘foreign’ court. Were that so and the victims of Hillsborough for example might disagree having been let down by the courts, the police and elements of the media in their search for justice. They finally achieved justice partly with the aid of the Human Rights Act so despised by the Mail. There are many victims of injustice who have found our institutions to be less than favourable to their interests – the Post Office scandal anyone?

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49th Vigil in Salisbury


November 2024

The 49th Vigil took place in Salisbury yesterday (9th November) and despite being on the cold side, 40 people attended for the half an hour. The Vigil attracted a lot of attention from passers by. There is a short video. Our previous post discussed the situation in Gaza and the recently published UN report. In the post we said that if a response from Israel came to hand we would amend the post as appropriate. Today (10th) there is no mention of the report.

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Gaza: UN publishes grim report


UN publishes six month report on the conflict in Gaza

November 2024

The UN Human Rights chief said that there has to be a “due reckoning” for the horrific violations, possible atrocity crimes in Gaza. The report is critical of both Hamas and Israel for their actions although the bulk of the criticisms are directed at Israel and the IDF. The report covers the period 1 November 2023 to 30 April this year so does not include more recent events.

It notes that Palestinian armed groups had committed serious violations of international law on a wide scale, including attacks directed against civilians, killing and mistreatment of civilians, destruction of civilian objects, and taking of hostages, which amount to war crimes. These relate to the initial attack on 7 October 2023.

Many defenders of Israel’s actions have focused on the October attack as the start of the current conflict. The UN says that “it is also important to note the longstanding human rights impacts of 57 years of Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory in Gaza10 and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and a strangulating 17-year blockade and closure of Gaza”. Gaza was effectively an open air prison during these years with limited access to the outside world. There is no port or airport and the territory is surrounded by checkpoints.

There are arguments about the death toll with claims by Israel spokesmen and women that the statistics cannot be believed as they are produced by Hamas. The report is dated of course but the reported death toll is now around 43,000. Even in the first six months, the UN observes that thousands of bodies are unaccounted for. The quoted figures are likely to be very much an underestimate. Grim footage on Channel 4 news (8 November) shows attempts to collect body parts after a raid. The report analyses the death toll and an alarming graphic shows that the highest death toll is in the 5 – 9 year cohort with the next highest 10 – 14 (Paragraph 14).

A doctor working for MSF is quoted as saying “the scale of destruction in Gaza is unprecedented. The sheer amount of ordinance dropped dropped in such a small area is staggering. […] I have worked in many wars but Gaza has changed me. It’s not just another conflict zone; it’s a place where the very essence of humanity is under siege”. (MSF newsletter, November 2024). Byline Times reports that 70,000 tons of munitions have been dropped on Gaza, the rough equivalent of of the nuclear bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki combined (November 2024 Eyeless in Gaza p41)

It’s a place where the very essence of humanity is under siege

An alarming claim is evidence of the use of white phosphorous on six occasions. This dreadful weapon causes immense harm and suffering. White phosphorus is an incendiary chemical that can cause particularly horrific and painful injuries, including extensive and life-threatening burns on human tissue and other debilitating health effects that can last a lifetime or lead to a slow and painful death. As a remnant of war, white phosphorus has a particularly severe environmental impact, leaking into water and sediments and risking further damage to Gaza’s water, food and the environment. So far as we are aware, this has not been reported on in the British media.

Further aspects comment on the killing of journalists in addition to preventing foreign journalists from entering the area. More journalists have died in this area than in any other. This means independent testimony and justification of both sides claims hard to verify.

Throughout the conflict, Israel has justified the bombing and destruction of huge swathes of Gaza by claiming that Hamas are using civilians, hospitals and schools as ‘human shields’. This justification has been repeatedly used by Israeli spokespeople. The UN says that evidence of this activity has not been provided. After over a year of the hostilities, one would have expected evidence of this oft repeated claim to have emerged.

The ‘Generals’ Plan’ is to clear all residents of northern Gaza and Haaretz reports that no Palestinians will be allowed to return, a confirmation of the plan. The question is whether the killings constitute genocide under article II (a) and (c) of the Genocide Convention.

We have attempted to provide a response to the UN’s report but none has so far appeared on outlets such as Haaretz and the Israel Foreign Affairs site [accessed 9 November]. This latter contains an item about the violence in Amsterdam but no reference to the UN report. The Ambassador to the UK was interviewed on the BBC World at One programme on 8 November and simply disputed the figures by both Hamas and the UN. [If a response to the UN report by Israel becomes available this post may be amended].

The report provides a grim account – made worse by subsequent events – of indiscriminate attacks on a wide range of infrastructure, the limitation of food and medical equipment allowed into the area, together with reductions of water and other essential services. Israel is able to continue the violence at a wholly disproportionate level with the aid of western countries which provide both diplomatic cover and the supply of arms. Sir Keir Starmer, then leader of the opposition, stated in an interview on LBC in October last year that ‘Israel had a right to cut power and water to the territory’ one of the more disgraceful comments by a political leader. In an interview with the Jewish Chronicle he also declared that criticisms of the Israeli government policy of apartheid was ‘no part of Labour party policy’. The UK continues to supply arms and intelligence from Cyprus. Declassified notes that 13 out of the 25 Labour cabinet receive funding from Israeli lobbyists. Israel’s banning of journalists from entering the area combined with feeble reporting has played a part in enabling this tragedy to continue.

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The World Cup and sportswashing


Major law firm heavily criticised for a whitewash report on Saudi Arabia

November 2024

The 2034 World Cup is to take place in Saudi Arabia a country with a huge range of human rights issues. Women have restricted rights both in law and in practice. They are prevented from participation in sporting activities. Human Rights defenders are routinely intimidated or arrested on spurious charges. There is no religious freedom. There is a heavy toll of death sentences usually by beheading in public. By September 2024, 198 had been executed. Torture is common and suspects are kept for long periods often in solitary confinement without legal representation. Altogether a Kingdom where few freedoms or human rights exist.

FIFA, the world governing body, has been racked by years of controversy and corruption allegations. It would hardly be surprising therefore if the decision to host the 2034 competition in Saudi – following the massive scandal of the Qatar competition – was not accompanied by some corruption or other shady activities.

Enter Clifford Chance, a major London law firm with apparently a good reputation. They have produced a 39 page report in support of the Kingdom which somehow misses the key issues and the multiple human rights infringements. Clifford Chance, along with many other organisations, has a range of fine words praising their high principles. ‘[We] are committed to the highest ethical and professional standards’ they claim. ‘[We act] with integrity, professionalism and fairness.‘ As a firm ‘we have agreed to support and respect internationally recognised human rights both as part of our own commitment to the UN Global Compact and consistent with the UN Guiding Principles.’

So how, it might be asked, does a law firm with such principles and policy statements come to write a report which seems to overlook the massive infringements taking place in the Kingdom? It helps if you do not ask those in a position to know such as the many human rights organisations who have produced report after report detailing the dreadful state of human rights. Instead, you ask the Saudi sports authority itself, SAFF, who helpfully identified the five human rights ‘focal points’ for the (allegedly) ‘independent’ assessment. Reading the 39 pages there is no mention of the multiple human rights infringements which regularly take place in the Kingdom.

The report has produced a ‘shitstorm’ in the Clifford Chance headquarters

The report is nothing short of a disgrace. It is reported that it has produced an ‘internal shitstorm’ in the London headquarters. Eleven human rights organisations have condemned it. A common response to criticisms such as these is that sport enable a better understanding of human rights through sport. Global Citizen is a champion of this view. The difficulty with this idea, noble though it is, is that sport is being used by the likes of Saudi to promote – not human rights and brotherhood – but its own interests.

Another issue is the kafala system which immigrant labour works in desperate conditions for 16 hours a day sometimes in searing heat. The death toll is enormous and it is reported that 21,000 Nepali, Bangladeshi and Indian workers who have died in Saudi since the Vision 30 plan was launched in 2016. The Clifford Chance report dances around this issue with a host of weasel words.

And we must not forget the murder and dismemberment of Jamal Khashoggi almost certainly on MBS’s orders.

But should we be surprised? The Kingdom has enormous wealth and company after company is happy to do business there and hold their noses whilst doing so. Why should Clifford Chance be any different? It is alleged that the firm facilitated the removal of fortunes from 400 citizens who were locked in a hotel by Mohammed bin Salman. It is claimed £100bn was removed from them. The enormous wealth of the Gulf states has profited many European and American corporations eager to benefit from the largesse. Any moral scruples seem all too easily to be set aside. That a major law firms should join this jamboree is deeply disappointing. Thousands will die during the course of construction. Hundreds more will be detained without trial. Hundreds will continue to be beheaded. Whatever happened to those ‘highest ethical and professional standards?’

All this in aid of football. The ‘beautiful game’ has become mired in sleaze, corruption and graft. It has now dragged down a respected law firm in its quest to earn big fees.

[UPDATE: 15 November. Inside World Football reports that FIFA deliberately agreed with Saudi to limit the scope of the report into human rights.]

Sources: Amnesty, FIFA, Clifford Chance, The Guardian, New York Times, The Observer, Inside World Football.

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Peace Vigil No 48


November 2024

The 48th Vigil for peace in the Middle East took place yesterday and with the change in clocks, we were back to candles. About 40 were in attendance, the strongest turnout for some time. Also, a stronger contingent of young people. It is amazing to note the numbers – which do fluctuate – remain high.

Events in the region show no sign of a let up. Bombing continues in both Gaza and Lebanon. Commentators are reporting that the “General’s Plan” of clearing north Gaza of Palestinians seems to be happening despite denials. Such footage as emerges is shocking. With Unwra to be banned from the area and no other agency with the scale or infrastructure able to take its place, the future looks truly grim. So much now depends on the US election in a few days time. If Trump wins and becomes president in the New Year, then it seems unlikely any pressure will be put on Netanyahu to compromise. The future if Kamala Harris succeeds is less predictable as she has had to moderate her views in the light of the Jewish vote in the US.

More media outlets beginning to refer to Israeli actions as ‘genocide’. It is worth reminding ourselves what genocide is and the UN definition is:

The Genocide Convention establishes in Article I that the crime of genocide may take place in the context of an armed conflict, international or non-international, but also in the context of a peaceful situation. The latter is less common but still possible. The same article establishes the obligation of the contracting parties to prevent and to punish the crime of genocide.

The popular understanding of what constitutes genocide tends to be broader than the content of the norm under international law. Article II of the Genocide Convention contains a narrow definition of the crime of genocide, which includes two main elements:

  1. A mental element: the “intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such”; and
  2. A physical element, which includes the following five acts, enumerated exhaustively:
    • Killing members of the group
    • Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group
    • Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part
    • Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group
    • Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group

As we have noted before, the issue of intent is important. A number of agencies and organisations have concluded that there is sufficient intent to conclude it is genocide.

The death toll in Gaza is around 43,000. Over 100,000 have been injured. Over 1,200 have been killed in Israel.

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The Vigils continue


October 2024

Just when you think it cannot get worse, it does. The situation in Gaza, particularly in the northern enclave is dire. Bombing continues and plans to prevent food and other aid entering is underway. The Israeli government plans to ban the UN agency UNWRA. [Update: 29th October. This has been approved by the Knesset]. The Times newspaper in the UK claims that the agency is of value to Hamas and not ordinary Palestinians, a view similar to the Israeli government.

Further, there have been many allegations that UNWRA employees were engaged in the terror attack on 7 October 2023. Seven of the agency’s employees were dismissed after an investigation by the UN. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant alleges 30 of their employees were involved. He said in a Haaretz article that out of 13,000 employees, 1,468 were involved in terror organisations.

A representative of the National Unity Party spoke on BBC World at One today (28 October). They claimed that UNWRA was ‘rotten to the core’. The representative alleged that ‘most [of their staff] were Hamas activists’. Later she said that ‘70% were affiliated to Hamas’. The BBC interviewer tried gamely to interject saying that there was no evidence for these claims. It was admitted that a small number were involved as noted above. The interviewee was sure that the Knesset will vote in the measure today saying there was wide-spread support for it.

The problem as we have noted before is that there is a lack of independent verification for these various claims some of which are extremely wild. Claims that buildings are being used by terrorists are impossible to verify. Gaza is one of the most dangerous places for journalists to operate in. According to the Committee to Protect Journalists, 131 have died and 69 arrested. They believe 5 have been murdered by Israeli forces. The question is, if Israel is so certain that buildings are used by Hamas and people are being used by them as human shields, why not allow independent verification?

Over the weekend, Israeli forces bombed various military sites in Iran raising the tensions still further.

Meanwhile, in Salisbury the vigils continue and over 35 were in attendance on Saturday. We will gather again on Saturday 2 November when we shall be back to candles. Around 42,000 have died in Gaza according to Le Monde.

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The Middle East conflict


Current phase of the conflict a year old and little sign of an end

October 2024

There has been an exchange of letters in the Salisbury Journal concerning the conflict in the Middle East. Two letters have focused on the issue of Britain continuing to supply arms to Israel. Although a limited embargo is in place, we still for example supply components for the F35. These aircraft are being used to deadly effect in both Gaza and Lebanon. Over 42,000 are dead in Gaza and more than 2,000 in Lebanon.

The word ‘genocide’ has been used to describe Israel’s action in Gaza and South Africa has launched an action in the International Criminal Court. The allegations make grim reading. There are huge numbers of forced evacuations. A significant part of the population is being forcibly moved. The death toll, particularly among women and children, is rising. Medical aid is failing to reach the population. Tens of thousands are living in make-shift accommodation (the link provides a more detailed picture). In the past day or two, evidence has been put forward to the effect that the starvation of those remaining in north Gaza might be an act of deliberate policy. This is said to be the ‘Generals’ Plan’.

Are these actions genocidal? The problem for the ICJ will be the question of intent. Is the destruction however terrible, a justifiable answer to the atrocious actions of Hamas most particularly on October 7th last year? Is Israel justified in going after the terrorist organisations who continually lob salvos of rockets into their territory? Or is it way over the top and disproportionate? One of the problems the Israelis have made for themselves is not allowing foreign journalists or observers into the area. Last month, the offices of al Jazeera were closed down and done so aggressively. Israel justifies the destruction of buildings, including schools and hospitals. It claims these buildings are used by Hamas to fire rockets into Israel and to prepare for terrorist activities. It claims that the deaths are because Hamas are using the population as ‘human shields’. Very little evidence is provided to justify these claims. One might expect that a year into this conflict, we would see evidence of these alleged activities, evidence that outside observers could verify. Entire buildings have been demolished with massive 2000 pound ‘dumb’ bombs because it is alleged Hamas operatives are present within them.

One of the writers to the Salisbury Journal asserts that the Hamas Covenant of 1988 calls for the obliteration of Israel. A subsequent charter in 2017 distinguishes between Jews and Zionists confining its more violent actions towards the latter. He failed to mention the statement by the Israeli Minister Amichae Eliyahu suggesting a nuclear bomb be dropped on Gaza. Bezalel Smotrich suggested recently that it would be ‘justified and moral’ to starve the population of Gaza. Both have been disavowed. Israeli minister Ben Gvir has said that his right to move around the West bank is superior to freedom of movement for Palestinians. The point being that aggressive and bloodthirsty statements have been made by both parties.

It is largely forgotten that Netanyahu supported Hamas for a period of several years as a means to weaken the PLO. And this is close to the heart of the problem: the desire for a Palestinian state and Israel’s refusal to countenance this. The desire for a greater Israel and the violent actions by the Israelis (misleadingly called settlers) on the West bank are a key element in the conflict. Another misunderstanding is to claim that the violent actions of October 7th were the start of the current hostilities. The roots go back to 1948 nakba at least and elements can be traced back to the Balfour Agreement and further back still. October 7th is but the latest manifestation of long term hatreds.

What makes the conflict hard to unpick is that in effect there are two wars going on. Firstly, that between Israel and Palestine and the former’s resolute stance not to allow a two state solution. Secondly, Iran’s role. This has history going back to the Shah. They have supported Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis in Yemen as proxies to attack Israel. But the seat of their aggression is again the Palestinian state and a belief that Israel has usurped Arab lands.

A key feature is the imbalance of power. Israel, with a largely unquestioning US support, is the regional superpower. It can project its power over the region. It can do this both militarily and with superior intelligence. This intelligence was seen with the spate of assassinations of Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon recently. None of the other states can match this. The US is sending manpower and more equipment this week. This makes it unwilling to compromise its position simply because it doesn’t need to. The world is waiting for Israel to respond to the rocket attacks from Iran of a few weeks ago. Israel has the capacity to inflict real damage on Iran’s military infrastructure. Iran by contrast, cannot do this. Despite the huge number of missiles hurled at Israel, the damage was minimal.

One major shift is the international attitude towards Israel. The world was shocked by the horrific attack on October 7th. The ensuing destruction of huge chunks of Gaza and the appalling death toll and squalor has seen sympathy for Israel drain away. Western media reporting was largely pro Israel arising partly from a fear of being labelled ‘antiSemitic’ for any criticisms. It has become more balanced and robust as time has gone by. Occasionally, commentators have mentioned the apartheid policy in the West bank. Amnesty, Human Rights Watch and B’Tselem have all published detailed reports on this and Israel has accused them of being anti-Israel. Reporting is hampered by a lack of access to the conflict zones. Claims and counter claims cannot be independently checked.

Conclusions

Should the UK stop sending arms to Israel? From the purely practical point of view, doing so will make little difference. We are a small supplier anyway and so ceasing supplies will not stop or help resolve the conflict. The political position is rather different. The UK is a member of the Security Council and still an influential force around the world. Other countries like Spain, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy have stopped their supplies. The moral case is rather more compelling. Are we content to see the destruction of a vast swathe of both Gaza and increasingly Lebanon? Are we content to see thousands of children die or receive terrible wounds. Can we stand by and accept the use of starvation as a weapon of war? The answer should be ‘no’. If genocide is pronounced, the UK will be obliged to stop all weapons sales.

The imbalance of power is a major factor in the continuation of this conflict and we are contributing to this. We also help Israel with overflights from Cyprus. Wars have to end sometime. Few have mentioned the economic cost of this conflict bearing mind Israel’s population is around 9.5 million 75% of whom are Jews. How long can they sustain this even allowing for massive US aid?

Yesterday’s killing of Yahya Sinwar (17 October), the leader of Hamas, has led the Americans and others to hope that this is some kind of ‘moment of justice’. They hope this is the opportunity for negotiations to begin. It is unlikely. Netanyahu is holding on in the hope that Donald Trump will win the election. Since the US is powerless to rein in Israel and Hamas and the other terrorist groups ignore them, the possibility of an outside force successfully engineering some kind of peace seems remote. Frequent efforts by Qatar came to nought.

An end

Wars end because exhaustion sets in. Another reason is the parties see no hope of gaining victory. Thirdly, the loss of treasure becomes too great to bear and a kind of armed truce takes place. The public may become tired and the initial euphoria turns to boredom or frustration. Unfortunately, in the case of this conflict, these factors which researchers* have identified in other conflicts, may not apply. As argued above, outside forces most particularly the USA, are the drivers here enabling Israel to continue for a long period. In many respects this is a proxy war both by USA and Iran. Israel’s losses are minimal and containable. But the greatest factor is the abiding hatred that seems to exist between the parties.

Being surrounded by enemies, some of whom are committed to its destruction, has a powerful effect on Israel. Nevertheless, it had agreed peace treaties with several countries such as Jordan and Egypt. The Abraham accords were also a positive step. It can be done. Trump’s ending of rapprochement with Iran was a backward step.

This stage of the conflict will come to some kind of an end, or should we say pause. The answer to the arms question is clear. Britain should suspend deliveries and use its diplomatic power to push for a two state solution. It would give Israel the security it needs and it would weaken the power and influence of the terrorist groups.

*MIT Research

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Group minutes – October


October 2024

We are pleased to attach the minutes of the group’s meeting held on 10 October thanks to group member Lesley for their preparation. They are longer than normal minutes as they double as our newsletter. If you live in the south Wiltshire area you would be welcome to join us and we meet on the second Thursday of each month. A good idea is to make yourself known at an event we’re running. Joining us is free but there is a fee to join Amnesty International.

October minutes (Word)Download
The Salisbury group is 50 this year.

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Refugee report – October


October 2024

The problem of boat crossings has largely dropped out of the news recently with the conflict in the Middle East soaking up media attention. The Conservative party’s leadership election is also a focus of interest particularly as the two remaining candidates have hard line opinions on immigration.

As the new government prepares to reveal its Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Bill (largely designed to replace the jettisoned Illegal Migration Act), it is worth looking at the current situation with the small boats. Under the IMA, all applications are deemed inadmissible. This has left us with a backlog of 33,000 claimants in limbo (mainly Afghans and Syrians). Before the IMA, 90% of claims had been accepted. This might not be the case in the future as the Home Secretary also wants enhanced return procedures.

The high levels of pending cases has been exacerbated by the lower levels of acceptance (down to about 60% of cases) with a resulting big increase in the number of appeals. In passing, the Independent notes that the oldest asylum claim at the Home Office was made nearly 17 years ago. Also, Switzerland has improved its processing, which used to take up to 4 years, but is now about 100 days, which may be a pointer for a way forward.

The charity Safe Passage sees signs of improvement  (e.g. now allowing children to join relatives who are not parents) but meanwhile the total number of arrivals this year is over 25,000 – slightly more than last year but fewer than 2022. The government is keen to align with European procedures on irregular arrivals, but within Europe itself cracks are showing. This week 17 EU countries pushed for more effective return procedures for rejected applicants under the new Asylum and Migration Pact. At present the actual return rate for those to be sent back is only around 30%. An amended return process is presently stuck in the European Parliament.

Following the Ukraine war, the percentage of the world’s refugees in Europe has increased to over 20%. New research this week suggests that the numbers of irregular migrants in Europe is not increasing substantially (still at around 1% of the population for most countries). The MIrreM project calculate that between 2.6 and 3.2 million irregular migrants are living in the 12 countries they researched, with 594,000 to 745,000 in the UK. Figures are not completely reliable owing to many arrivals staying under the radar.

While we concern ourselves with the relatively small number of refugees arriving on the south coast, it is worth looking at the worldwide situation. With war zones in the Middle East, Sudan and Myanmar, not to mention Ukraine, the number of displaced persons has mushroomed in the last year. Ten million Sudanese have been displaced, 2 million to another country, 4.5 million Yemenis are internally displaced, while in Gaza 90% of the population and in Lebanon 1 million out of 5 ½ have had to move under Israeli attack, in some cases many times. In the larger Palestine, plus Jordan, Lebanon and Syria, there are 58 recognised camps housing 1.5 million refugees (1 in 3 of all Palestinians, some dating back to 1948. The UN authorities in the area (UNRWA and UNIFIL) have pointed out that many of the displaced inhabitants may well choose to head for Europe, adding to the pressure on countries there.

In Myanmar, not only  those under threat from the military, but also many Rohingya have left the country, about 1.3 million, mostly to Bangladesh.

AH

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