If there is one thing which is guaranteed to excite tensions and rouse passions at the moment is the whole question of refugees, immigrants and asylum seekers. Election campaigns seem to revolve around this topic and only recently, mobs attacked homes in Belfast and Southampton to burn out such people with fire bombs. Parties vie with one another to demonstrate their toughness against them and Andy Burnham – decisively voted into parliament again two days ago – is quoted as being supportive of the home secretary Shabana Mahmood in her desire to introduce yet more controls.
Alongside these passions is a degree of mis and disinformation. For example, there is a degree of fixation over the Channel crossings which loom large in the tabloid and right wing media universe. They loom much larger in the imagination than the actual numbers justify. They are seen as remorselessly increasing when the opposite is the case. Which is why the group decided to mount a short quiz in Salisbury market.
The results were modest. Around 23 people stopped to engage. The majority walked by. We can never know of course but it may be because the whole topic of refugees is so distasteful they do not wish to spend their precious time on it. They may feel that their knowledge of the subject is pretty sound. We cannot know.
Those that did stop did pretty well (as you can see from the photo on the left) with most getting the answers right. They knew that numbers were falling; they knew that the numbers coming by boat were a small proportion of the whole and they were aware that they could not work without a visa.
The group will be in the Market Square on Saturday as part of Refugee Week
June 2026
Immigration, refugees and asylum seekers are top of the political agenda and generate huge anger in many communities. Some is understandable with a firm called Serco buying up properties and converting them into HMOs* filling them with among others, immigrants.
The debate around this topic has fuelled more heat than light. As we have noted in our reports, the general impression is of an ever rising trend of immigration, mostly by boat, and all of them being housed in ‘luxury’ hotels. They are taking our jobs and are responsible for a great deal of crime it is claimed. Some politicians and their parties have responded to these ideas, with great success. A key element of the forthcoming Makerfield by-election will be the immigration issue.
QUIZ
So how true is all this stuff? How sure are you of your knowledge around this issue? You can find out on Saturday 20th starting at 9 am and finishing at noon in the Cheesemarket (outside HSBC). There we will be hosting a quiz.
This is important in the sense that massive amounts of misinformation and false beliefs are determining policy. The value that immigrants bring to the economy is largely overlooked. The reaction to the Channel crossings verges on the hysterical. There is not denying there are problems to do with immigration but the scale of them is much exaggerated. So come and find out!
Immigration has shot to the top of the political agenda again with a vengence
June 2026
Riots in Belfast with houses lived in by immigrant families burned out, a massive police presence with water canons being used and civil disturbances in Southampton, have filled out screens in the past few days. A fierce debate in parliament and what some might term inflammatory statements by politicians have added to a sense that there is a crisis at the centre of which is immigration.
The violent knife attack by a Sudanese man who had entered Northern Ireland via the Republic, and before that France, has inflamed tensions with mobs directing their ire at all immigrants even those who have lived here for years and are a key part of the NHS for example. Posters in Southampton said things like ‘Enough is Enough’ and ‘Illegal migration is destroying our civilisation’. They claimed solidarity with those in Belfast. There were also counter protests (see image).
As with so many things to do with immigration, there is a great deal of misinformation fuelled by social media in particular although print media is not too far behind. Elon Musk has been widely criticised for his remarks on X and the promotion of comments by Tommy Robinson and Rupert Lowe (Restore Party).
Immigration: some of the facts
To get a global perspective on the trends in migration, a recent article in the Journal of Refugee Studies has found that most “forced migration”(its preferred term) in recent years has taken place in the Global South (76%), most of that being into neighbouring countries (in Africa and Asia primarily). Turkey and Iran have been the biggest recipients. At the same time, the UNHCR say that 10% of global refugees (some 11 million) have lost funding from the Commission in the last year.
In Europe, the Chisinau conference on dealing with the immigration issue ended without a decisive result. Last year 7 Council of Europe countries declared that the ECHR had “gone too far” and “protects the wrong people.” The Secretary-General convened this meeting of European justice ministers, which issued a joint statement (not including France, Germany, Spain or Turkey, who take 60% of refugees to the continent), reaffirming their commitment to the ECHR, but allowing some movement in removing claimants and using offshore hubs. The declaration is not legally binding, so local laws override it. It is worth pointing out that only 0.7% of foreign offenders have won appeals against the UK at the Court (and a recent case at the UK Court of Appeal has shown how hard it is to use the infamous Article 3 argument).
Are the figures up or down?
Latest (2025) figures on irregular immigration to Europe showed Spain as the main host, followed by Italy and France (UK was 5th, but only 9th on a per head basis). It is worth noting, though, that the number of arrivals on the European borders is down this year (by 40%), as it is in Britain.
In Britain, the latest British Future survey of public opinion noted that 49% of respondents believed that immigration is rising, when it is falling rapidly. They also believed that asylum seekers make up 33% of immigrants (the actual figure is 9%). The latest figures on small boats (to late May) indicate that, at 8,565, they are down by 37% on 2025. Pending asylum applications in Q1 were at 93,000, 12,000 down on last year.
Down, but you would not know it from the media or from politicians.
The House of Commons Public Accounts Committee has published a very critical report on the workings of the asylum system, which it says lacks direction and is given to short-term fixes. Particular criticism was directed at the failings of the system of monitoring failed asylum seekers and the lack of a clear strategy for the move away from hotel accommodation for new claimants. One aspect of the failing system is that research has shown that, of persons held in immigration detention, only 27% had a lawyer and half were having to do their own legal representation.
The ongoing debate about indefinite leave to remain rumbles on. Plans have been mooted to make the 5-year time requirement retrospective, which would affect 2 million people, including 300,000 children. The Institute of Government has declared against such a scheme. There is also an ongoing issue about classifying children as adults (with the Home Office attempting to use AI to help decide.) The Helen Bamber Foundation claim that 755 children were classified as adults in the last year. They have also a report out, interviewing some children on the stress of the proposed new restrictions.
The Migration Observatory report that the share of asylum seekers in hotel accommodation has halved since 2023 to 21%. The North West has the highest incidence. They also report the 3 in 10asylum seekers with active claims were not receiving any government support at the end of 2025.
The Rwanda deportation plan, now abandoned, cost the UK £270 million, to remove 4 people. The Rwandan government’s claim for compensation was turned down this month by the International Court at The Hague.
Refugee Week
The Salisbury Group will have a presence in the Cheese Market in the City centre on Saturday 20th June from 09:00 till noon. Details in a later post.
Refugees and immigration have dropped down the political agenda. Irregular arrivals to EU fall
February 2026
With nearly all the political attention focused on the future of the Labour government and Sir Keir’s likely survival together with the steady stream of resignations from No. 10 (soon be time for the old joke ‘will the last person to leave remember …’ etc) attention has shifted from the near constant focus on immigration and in particular the boat crossings.
This month the focus has been on Europe, specifically the EU, who are developing a 5-year strategy prioritising deterrence, deportation and cooperation with non-EU countries. In the words of Ursula von der Leyen, ‘Europe decides who comes to the EU’. The view of Amnesty International is that the EU risks demonstrating complicity in rights violations by its proposed dependency on third countries. So far deals have been made with Tunisia, Mauritania, Egypt and Morocco, none of which has blameless human rights records. It is worth noting that irregular arrivals in the EU are down by 25% in 2025. While many European countries are making conditions harder for irregular arrivals, Spain has decided to regularise the status of 500,000 undocumented migrants, emphasising their value to the country.
Deportation is also looming large in the UK. Under threat of shutting down their visas, Angola, Namibia and the DRC have agreed to take back migrants claiming asylum in the UK. Numbers of removals have been made, especially to Albania, Brazil and India. In 2024, 32% of enforced removals were asylum-related, 25% of voluntary removals. The voluntary return numbers are not only people agreeing to go back home, but include anyone not going through the application process properly for whatever reason (the number of these who actually leave the country is unknown, of course).
The ‘One in, one out’ arrangement with France has so far resulted in 281 people going to France and 350 coming the other way. The journal ‘Medical Justice’ says that a high proportion of those involved are survivors of trafficking and/or torture.
Reduced backlog
In Britain, the backlog of asylum cases is going down although, as notes before, the number of refusals has gone up (probably due to less care being taken in the interviewing) so that there is a bigger backlog of tribunal appeals (and fewer qualified staff to deal with them). Barrister Colin Yeo has observed, “The only group to benefit from these long waiting times are those whose cases will ultimately fail; by the time that happens they will have been living here for years and it will be even harder for the Government to remove them than would otherwise have been the case”. As of last September, 17,000 claimants had been waiting more than a year for a decision.
The UK Government has been publicising its plans for new ways of dealing with the immigrant issue. Among them is a plan for ‘Named Community Sponsorship’ whereby local communities take the responsibility for inviting and incorporating migrants into the community. This would create safe and legal routes into the UK, but leaves the onus on local private projects and may result in cherry picking. The Ukrainian process would be the template, but no timeline has been given.
The Home Office is also talking of trialling new ways of housing irregular migrants to replace hotels following Refugee Action’s suggestion that authority for asylum seekers’ accommodation should go to local councils, not the Home Office. Local councils are resisting for fear of hostile public reaction.
The BBC have reported that there has been a surge in the number of refugee households that are now homeless, up from 3,520 in 2021/2 to 19,310 in 2024/5. The increase in waiting times and shortening of time available to find accommodation post-assessment are blamed.
In the wider world, the Sudan conflict has had a profound effect on its neighbour countries with 14 million displaced persons. 1.2 million have moved to Chad, a country where 42% of the population live below the poverty line.
March for Refugees
Finally, for anyone eager for exercise, Refugee Action are organising a March for Refugees, sponsored walking 30, 60 or l00 miles through the month. Details at Sign up to March for Refugees.
With the events in Venezuela, threats to occupy Greenland and continuing conflict in Ukraine, news about small boat arrivals and immigrants generally has dropped out of the news recently. Problems remain however.
Firstly, the final figure for irregular arrivals in the UK by small boats in 2025 was 41,000, the second-highest annual total ever. The Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act is now in force, with new measures allowing Border Force to seize phones and SIM cards from irregular arrivals, ostensibly to help in tracking down smugglers. Seizures of cash and assets of convicted smugglers are up 33% in year to September, compared to the previous year.
More positively, 5 local councils in England and Wales have declared an interest in a pilot scheme to use new build and refurbished council homes for asylum seekers as a way of removing them from hotels. The homes would be built with government money, leased to the Home Office, and then added to LA stock. The views of other prospective council home tenants have not yet been noted.
In the EU, heads of state met on 8 January to discuss its Common European System for Returns, instituted last March. The Commission claims that only 20% of those designated for deportation actually are removed. The effectiveness of the new system is not yet clear. The UK government claims to have removed 50,000 claimants since it came into office in July 2024.
On the global level, Sherif A Wahab has calculated that the numbers of Displaced Persons is now double what it was in 2012; one-third of them are refugees (i.e. outside their country). Likewise the number of refugees who have been in exile for more than 5 years has doubled over the last decade; reasons for this include conflicts lasting longer; lack of strategy at local and national levels; refusals of permanent residency and other repressive policies. Of the world’s 32 million refugees only 204,000 returned home or settled permanently in 2022 (latest figures).
‘failure of imagination and ambition’
The head of the UNHCR, Filippo Grandi – on retiring last month – expressed his views on what he saw as a failure of imagination and ambition; “the international community should invest in asylum systems to make them faster, more efficient and better able to return people who do not need the help” In his view, governmental responsibility does not impinge on sovereignty, but is an extension of it.
The link below to an article from The Guardian looks at the working of community sponsorship schemes; it implies that the government is still committed to legal routes to resettlement. The Home Secretary said last November that she hoped to develop this model further.
“With control [over Britain’s borders] restored, we will open up new, capped routes for refugees for whom this country will be the first, safe haven they encounter. We will make community sponsorship the norm, so we know that the pace and scale of change does not exceed what a local area is willing to accept,” she said.
On the campaigning front, Safe Passage International have produced for the new year a Resolutions Generator, which, when pressed, will offer a small way in which one can help or understand better.
And here’s a petition against deportations from WeMoveEurope:
We are pleased to attach our minutes and newsletter for the December group meeting thanks to group member Lesley for compiling them. They include several reports some of which appear elsewhere on this site with links to other sites of interest.
Item 12 refers to upcoming events which if you are interested in joining us are a good opportunity to make contact.
In a week where the focus has been on European discussions about the European Convention on Human Rights, actual migration has taken a back seat behind probable ever-tougher measures against those arriving here (the expected next French president Jordan Bardella is talking of letting UK Border Force push small boats back to France). At the same time, the National Audit Office has surveyed the workings of the existing UK asylum processing system and found it failing in a number of areas – not to mention its view that current government proposals will have unintended consequences.
On the legislative front, the Border Security, Asylum and Immigration Act has received the Royal Assent. During its passage through Parliament, some changes were made, including a partial lifting of the ban on anyone arriving “illegally” being allowed to stay and some reduction in the power to keep electronic data of applicants.
Net migration figure halved
From a UK point of view the most dramatic news has been the more than halving of the net migration figures year-on-year. This has mostly been achieved by reducing visas for prospective workers, but the ending of help for refugees from Ukraine, Afghanistan and Hong Kong has made a substantial difference. To June 2025, the yearly excess of immigration over emigration was 204,000 (down from 649,000).
The new Home Secretary has declared her policy, including making intending settlers take more stringent tests and wait 20 years to get residency. “Earned settlement” is to be subjected to consultation up until February, with new rules expected around April. It has been observed that Mahmood’s ideas were tried in Australia in the 90s, with little success ; they were abandoned in 2023.
Some useful reports have come out in the last month. Probably the most interesting is from the Mixed Migration Centre of the Danish Refugee Council on people smugglers. Interviews with migrants and smugglers have revealed that stricter law enforcement has tended to fuel demand and increase fees. Only 6% of interviewed migrants said they had been recruited by smugglers, most taking the decision to move on their own or with family members. Alarmingly, almost half the smugglers admitted being in contact with border officers or police.
The PCS union and Together With Refugees have a new report entitled “Welcoming Growth,” looking at the economic consequences of a possible change to the current system. If the immigration rules were to:
Make all asylum claims proceed within 6 months
legal assistance at all stages
Give English language support from day 1
Give employment support from day one.
They calculate that a total contribution from refugees could amount to £260,000 per refugee over 12 ½ years, giving a net benefit to the public purse of £53,000 per person, after costs. 16 MPs have signed a motion welcoming the report.
Other notes:
Following the pause, the UK is now accepting asylum claims from Syrians again.
European organisations (notably Eurodac) are concerned that AI usage is resulting in misreadings of migrants’ personal data.
Thousands of Ukrainians have been ejected from Israel as the offer of asylum has ended. Their future is unclear.
Total number displaced in Sudan is now 13 million.
200,000 have fled homes in Eastern Congo amid ongoing fighting.
Finally, the Refugee Week people are moving ahead. They have updated what they call their Theory of Change (by which they mean their mission statement, essentially), which is a good summary of an arts-led campaign. They are offering to make available the film The Light That Remains (a documentary of life in Gaza under stress).
Public reactions to immigration not straighforward
November 2025
The main news topic in the UK this month has been accommodation for asylum seekers, and the public reaction to the Government’s move to place claimants in military establishments following the furore over the use of hotels. Although such sites are expensive to run, the Home Office’s view is that ”quelling public disquiet was worth any extra cost.” Current plans include places for 900 claimants near Inverness, and 600 at Crowborough, East Sussex. Needless to say protests are already taking place. The Home Affairs Select Committee has expressed disapproval of the plans as unsuitable and requiring vast expenditure making the sites liveable. Figures for the numbers in hotel accommodation have fallen from 50,000 in June 20203 to 31,000 in June 2025.
A YouGov poll in 2022 revealed that the British public were split on whether or not immigration was good
for the country 29% for, 29% against. By 2025 the equivalent figures were 20% and 43%, and three quarters of responders thought immigration too high. The change in view has been put down to “imagined immigration”, whereby the population has acquired an incorrect understanding of the reality. For example, 47% of respondents believe that there is more illegal than legal immigration (small boat arrivals are actually 4% of the total).
The Government’s decision to end the family reunion process continues to cause concern. It has been suggested that this was an idea taken up from Denmark’s current hardline policy on immigration, and that the Home Secretary is minded to follow more Danish policies, such as allowing in only claimants who are known targets of their home government. The Home Secretary’s plan for a “major shake-up of the immigration and asylum system later this month” will probably take account of other aspects of the Danish system, possibly including its policy of “parallel societies” (removing people from integrated areas to encourage homogeneous neighbourhoods in a two-tier system: catch Iain Watson’s Radio 4 programme “Immigration: the Danish Way” for the story.)[limited time].
In Parliament, the Border Safety, Asylum and Immigration Bill is still in the Lords, where Lord Dubs has an amendment to counter the removal of family reunion by allowing the entry of children lost on the way to this country. This may pass.
Another controversial area of policy has been Afghanistan, where people who worked for the previous government are being refused asylum as the Home Office claims they are not vulnerable to the Taliban. The organisation Asylos has a paper that has a different view, based on information from on the ground.
On the small boats front, there were 14 consecutive days in late October/early November when no boats crossed the Channel, since when a 1200 arrivals came in two days with better weather. The “one-in, one-out” arrangement with France continues in existence as a pilot scheme, but no assessment has yet been offered.
An interesting view of the prospects for migration comes from Britain in a Changing Europe’s James Bowes, who thinks that migration levels to the UK will fall dramatically. Most of this will be among legal migrants being denied visas, but lower numbers from Ukraine and Hong Kong will also have an effect; total net migration, he predicts, will fall to 70-170,000 in 2026 (the figure was 431,000 in 2024).
The journal Border Criminologies has noted that European governments have been using migrants’ mobile phone data to criminalise them rather than doing proper assessments. This story may get bigger.
There are numerous ongoing campaigns around. Next year’s Refugee Week (15th – 21st June) has as its theme “Courage”; Safe Passage are running a campaign against the family reunion policy under the title “Together Not Torn” “and Refugee Action are encouraging fundraising activities in the pre-Christmas period. Details can be found at https://www.refugee-action.org.uk/campaigns/
Refugees and boat crossings still making political waves
July 2025
With the state visit of President Macron this week, the small boats are back in the headlines. As Macron and Starmer try to thrash out a deal to reduce the numbers arriving in the UK, the UK has been pressuring the French police to use new tactics against the irregular immigrants, allowing them to stop boats from up to 300 meters from the shoreline rather than only dealing with them on land. Presently they can only intervene if there is danger to life. The police are, in any event accused of puncturing inflatable boats as well as more heinously using tear gas and pepper spray on children.
An agreement between the UK and France on a “one in one out” basis, so that any arrival can be sent
back to France if replaced by a candidate deemed more worthy by dint of family connection, has been mooted, but the press conference will be on Thursday afternoon, so we will not know just yet. At all events, other EU nations are complaining about a possible deal which will make it more likely that arrivals in Europe will end up on their shores.
‘we have to make migration boring again’
Meanwhile, Amy Pope, the CEO of the (UN’s) International Organisation for Migration, has suggested any proposed changes will be unlikely to work, bearing in mind the level of commitment the migrants have already put in before reaching the English Channel. She is also in favour of de-politicising the debate. Her comment “We have to make migration boring again” is clearly the most valuable contribution from anyone so far.
Arrivals
As noted last month, the number of arrivals in the UK on small boats continues to break records (20,000 by the end of June). This has been put down to good weather, smugglers’ new techniques and increasing conflicts around the world (the largest number of hopeful asylum seekers in Calais are from Sudan).
The Government is hoping to save up to £1 billion by speeding up backlog processing. However, the backlog is now 90,000 rather than 50,000 in 2024. In 2024, there were84,000 asylum claims – In the EU as a whole there were nearly a million – 997,000.
With much discussion on what legal routes immigrants can take, here is a summary of the current situation in the UK: there are presently 7 options.
UNHCR can select people it thinks appropriate to send (the places cannot be applied for, and amount to only 1% of all refugees).
UK Resettlement Scheme. The status of this is unclear; it includes community sponsorship and accounts for about 700 arrivals last year.
Mandate Scheme. This is for people with relatives in the UK. 23 cases were reported in 2024.
Family Reunions. Applies after refugee status has been agreed by the UK.
Mostly Syrians , Iranians and Eritreans. 5000 in quarter 1 2025.
Hong Kong. Numbers low now as most cases already settled.
Afghanistan. ACRS and ARAOP have now been closed, with virtually no explanation. “Further measures…[will be] announced later this year.” More Afghans have been arriving by boats than under these arrangements anyway.
Ukraine. Numbers also down now to about 4000 a month. Only 1698 asylum claims since 2022.
The Refugee Council have a new report New Roots, New Futures, arguing for a national integration strategy for refugees in the UK. They are particularly exercised by the need for new arrivals to have access to help in obtaining work and housing once they have been given right to remain.
The Green Party have put forward a plan for the Home Office to be split, with various options for the immigration departments.
By way of context, it should be noted that 73% of the world’s refugees are in Low/Middle Income countries, 67% of them are in countries neighbouring the one they are fleeing. Per head of population the countries with the highest number of refugees are Lebanon (1 in 8 of the population), Aruba and Chad.
The European Convention on Human Rights has become an issue again with questionable claims being made about possible unfair exploitation of loopholes. It should be stated that the Convention does not affect individual countries’ immigration policy, and that it is rare for claimants to a right of “family life” and such to win their case. The ECHR has ruled against the UK twice in the last two years, in neither case about immigration/deportation issues. They have generally prevented removals from the UK about once every 4.5 years since 1980. Leaving the Convention over this issue would seem rather unnecessary.
Refugees and the boat crossings still making political waves
June 2025
This month we are back to the small boats. So far in 2025 some 15,000 arrivals have been recorded (1,100 on one day). The Home Office say this is due to better weather and more people crammed in to boats. In quarter 1 numbers were up by 20% on last year – mainly from the usual places – Eritrea, Afghanistan, Sudan.
The asylum backlog is down to 78,000, but with a lower grant rate (49% over the last year) the improvement may not be maintained. The number of claimants jailed for “illegal arrival” has doubled in the last year. Between 2022 and 2024, 556 arrivals were prosecuted under the Illegal Migration Act and 455 convicted (half of them were said to be piloting the boats, willingly or otherwise, and were therefore “facilitators”). In the latter half of last year, 53 people were arrested for people smuggling including many who happened to be steering the boats and many of them children.
Plans for removing arrivals to third countries for processing have made little progress ; Albania said no, North Macedonia & Kosovo have not been asked but say they are open to discussion.
3,800 Afghans are currently awaiting homes (who came under the ARS scheme and were left unsupported). Also it has been claimed that an unnamed Special Forces officer blocked the entry of 1585 Afghans (it has been suggested this might be related to potential war crimes revelations).
7000 Syrians are still in limbo awaiting a UK decision on processing their claims after a pause (the new regime is still being monitored, though presumably it will eventually be possible for many to return there).
The US has taken on “refugees” from South Africa, white residents supposedly under threat. So far there have been 50,000 enquiries and 68 actual moves.
The Home Secretary has said she is working on a “fast-tracking” removal system for migrants from “safe” countries; these have not yet been named.
Of the 108,000 claimants for asylum status in the last year 16,000 were from holders of student visas. The government is likely to address this question soon.
Immigrant-focused group British Future have polled the public on attitudes to the word “immigrant”. For 70% of respondents this conjured up people on small boats, while 46% thought of imported workers. Of those who wanted to see a reduction in immigration, 49% prioritised the boats, very few mentioning worker or student arrivals. The research also finds that 59% of the public, and 64% of 2024 Labour voters, agree that migrants living in the UK and paying taxes should be eligible to apply for citizenship after five years or less.
Polling organisation More in Common found that 51% thought a fall in immigration a good thing, 57% opining that the level was still too high.
One of the more interesting ideas for Refugee Week is that of Lancaster, where an exhibition, Escape to Safety, will give visitors an interactive view of the refugee experience. More on that here
Finally, the Government’s Spending Review this week had a couple of points on the immigration/asylum seekers question. Chancellor Rachel Reeves says the new Border Security Command will receive up to £280m more a year by the end of the spending-review period. She also promises that all spending on hotels for asylum seekers waiting for their cases to be heard will stop by the end of this parliament.
Amnesty in Salisbury & South Wiltshire 