War in Middle East and its effects
March 2026
Although war reporting generates a lot of commentary on the deaths of those caught up in the conflicts, the effects on refugees and those displaced receives much less attention. With the new war(s) in the Middle East, refugees are again in the news. So far, most displaced people have been moved within the countries of Iran and Lebanon, but Turkey in particular is being readied for an influx of refugees. The European Union Agency for Asylum thinks here will possibly be large numbers of displaced persons as a result of the conflict, many of them heading for Turkey. The Institute for Migration estimates that as of now there are 19 million internally displaced in the region; the UNHCR have calculated in the last few days that 667,000 Lebanese have registered as displaced.
Home Secretary’s refugee plans
At home, the big story is the Home Secretary, Shabana Mahmood’s plan to reduce the length of protected stay of refugees from 5 years to half of that, during which time they will only have temporary refugee status. This will be subject to review every 30 months for up to 20 years. During this period claimants may be deported if, in the opinion of the Home Office, their country of origin has become deemed “safe”. A large number of Labour backbenchers are opposing the move, and the Law Society has observed that it might not comply with international law. Other objections have been that the plan will be costly (£872 million over a decade, according to the Refugee Council) and impractical. On 5th March, the Home Secretary revoked the legal duty to provide destitute asylum seekers with support and accommodation while their claims are processed, often for months or years. The Home Office have been influenced by the so-called “Danish model”, which takes a hard line on immigration.
Among the latest statistics to be released, the Home Office received up to 23,000 referrals of alleged human trafficking in 2025 (the main sources were Eritrea and Vietnam). The backlog of cases has reduced, but there has been an increase in the number of reconsiderations. In 2025 about 100,000 claims for asylum were made in the UK. Of these, 41% were from small boat arrivals, 11% other irregular means, while 40% already had some form of leave before claiming. The level of grants continues to drop, at 42% in 2025 (it used to be over 80%). Syria has suffered particularly with levels of asylum grants down year-on-year from 88% to 9%. Claims from Eritrea and Somalia are mostly accepted.
The ban on family reunions instigated last autumn is being challenged in the courts by Safe Passage International. A High Court ruling is expected later this year.
Small boats in the Channel are now starting from further north, in Belgium, according to a BBC report.
The UN Missing Migrants Project, which records the number of deaths among attempted migrants globally, has designated three routes as particularly dangerous: from North Africa to the Central Mediterranean (esp. Libya); from Afghanistan to Iran (this was before the current conflict), and from West Africa to the Canaries (they note that migrants are coming from further south than they used to, with more risks attached).
Those politicians who seem keen on war and wanted the UK to adopt a more interventionist stance with the Israeli and US actions, seem not to be quite so aware of the knock-on effects. Many of those same politicians are to be heard railing against refugees. Wars generate refugees. A proportion end up at Calais.
AH
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